Is The Bottom In For Bitcoin And Crypto??? Its Very Unlikely! Understand The regime We Are In!!!
This is going to be our daily cryptocurrency market update um, and i really want to start things off by just reiterating my stance on everything, and that is that i dont think this is the bottom for the cryptocurrency market and im finding it rather nauseating, rather annoying How the majority of crypto, twitter, um and youtube really seem to call every single leg that we have down and then, when we have a a buyback of that down pressure or we have some sort of a relief of that, they keep calling bottoms. And for me, it really shows a huge lack of understanding of the environment that were in financially. Markets are very much driven on liquidity and for you to call a bottom here when liquidity, certainly for the us and other governments around the world, are following central banks around the following is getting absolutely sucked out of the system and becoming scarcer and scarcer. So there is no reason for me to suggest: until we see pivotal changes, they could be geopolitical, they could be central bank orientated, but whilst the fed is on the regime that they are currently on, it gets worse for markets. I want to make that point very plain and simple. Now that doesnt mean that, given how much of a down leg weve seen, we dont see some sort of relief rally. You know when i look at ethereum here we picked off a couple of longs over the past couple of days on ethereum did very well.
This is not where im shorting ethereum, given how much of a down leg its seen weve spoken about how there is definitely the scope for a relief rally here for the likes of the cryptocurrency market. The issue youve got is: what does that relief come in the form of a bear flag, a rising wedge? Does it come in sort of a ledge structure where we just go sideways before then selling off lower, but to call bottoms and one of the most annoying things is when i see people bring up the dxy and literally they draw charts um and what well do Where theyre, basically just saying look, this is whats going to happen with the dxy. Well, why is that going to happen? It shows a huge lack of understanding in regards to whats actually happening financially. Like i say, markets driven from liquidity and liquidity is getting literally extracted at a unprecedented rate for probably most of our lifetimes. In regards to the federal reserve. You know if you look at interest rate hikes they the last time they did a 75 basis. Interest rate hike was in 1994 and the imf had to bail out mexico yeah. This is not a accommodating, the conditions are not accommodating for markets and failing to understand that and calling a bottom at every single point is just annoying um for me, and you know, shows a huge lack of understanding, and this is what im really trying to do On these daily cryptocurrency market, videos is give you a general view of where the cryptocurrency space is.
We are going to get into uh some of the news isnt it interesting how we have the first short bitcoin etf to list on the new york stock exchange. So we actually have a spot bitcoin etf, but theyve facilitated a product that will essentially allow you to short and were going to get into a number of other things like weve seen huge um outflows, the biggest outflows ever for a purpose, bitcoin etf. I think this is from coin shares and were going to get into a number of sort of um traditional um market um headlines, if you will um, but really. I just want to focus on this point that you know its still a very risk off environment, um and and for people to just expect the cryptocurrency markets just go off on a huge raging, bull run when the conditions are very much stacked against you, and this Is something that weve been highlighting? You know, bitcoin has never, since 2008 has never had to deal with an environment like the one that were moving into its going to be very interesting from somebody who loves the cryptocurrency market and really believes in it to see how it fares and to to be Calling bottoms here, as in a macro button for the cryptocurrency market, in regards to its cycle, that its currently in i think, is extremely foolish um for me its more important to look at data as it reveals itself and base the strategy accordingly and again.
People just look at interest rate hikes theyre, not looking at what the feds doing with their balance sheet. You know its essentially like having a triple liquidity extraction um on a scale that probably a lot of us havent seen in our lifetime. Certainly if youre 30 years and under you know, um, which is certainly interesting, um so were still not calling this a bottom. Does that mean i want a short hair, absolutely not um, and in actual fact you know we are taking longs and looking for that upside relief rally, we said the the nasdaq could provide that you know you could get a close of this gap here, see a Bit of a push back, you always tend to in a recession looming market do react around your 200 weekly moving average. So there is the scope for more upside, but the key thing is: what does that upside present itself, as you know, does that upside present itself? As um some sort of a bear flag, does it present itself as some sort of a ball flag? You know weve seen previously youve had this over here and you had this big structure, which is where we were essentially warning people and and and deleveraging from the cryptocurrency market. You know. Do we then get some sort of a repeat of this and youre very much kind of ranging you could call this a deviation youre now back above and you could end up in another range bound environment only to um, sell to the downside and thats kind of What im expecting you know downside across the board, and i think, the more and more i gain um knowledge on the kind of macro environment, something that im paying extreme attention to im listening to things every day on it.
Listening to plenty of different speakers. Talk about it reading books on it, i told you were reading paul volkls, autobiography um for what its worth um. You know it doesnt its a very unaccommodating time for markets across the board. That being said, you can still have some pretty harsh relief rallies. You know often the harshest release rallies do occur in a downtrend, so just be very careful out there be careful of bottom callers. Certainly be careful of these got these people that are calling for the dollar to like collapse here that its in a bubble inherently, when you up interest rates, the demand for dollars goes through the roof, because you need more dollars to pay back the um payments that You once sort of agreed on, you know, and they dont understand that and it gets worse, because interest rates get higher and theyre set to sort of get at least a three three plus percent by the end of the year in terms of the fed fund rate. So this the demand for dollar doesnt slow down here, guys um. You know it continues to thrive and thats unaccommodating for the crypto market. Again, we could see some sort of relief, but ultimately its killed off lets get into a bit of the news. Like i said, cryptocurrency market is seeing a little bit of relief today, which is nice um and and for those people who think im a bear im. Not a bear at all, you know i think crypto is going to be the biggest performer in terms of roi as an asset class that that you know in the next 10 15 20 years um.
I really do believe in this as a technological revolution im just saying what im saying you know that its its a very unaccommodating environment for markets that were currently in lets get into a little bit of the news. Short uh, first short bitcoin etf to list on the new york stock exchange. The exchange traded fund will allow investors to hedge their bitcoin exposure, which may prove um particularly pertinent, given the sharp downturn in the cryptocurrency market. As of late again, when theyre talking about sharp downturn, i dont think weve seen the worst of it and weve looked at the nasdaq. I see a lot of downside for the stock market, certainly the u.s stock market and the indexes that they provide, because theyre extremely overvalued still today and have essentially just gone up since 2008. Talking about bitcoin thats, the environment that its been in, we havent seen any kind of a colossal move down, barring march 2020, which was really a capitulation news driven event, um or situation situation event um. We havent seen how crypto is going to react moving forward. So i think a cautionary tale is one thats really going to benefit you more for selling ahead purpose, bitcoin etf holdings plunge by 51 in biggest outflows ever so were seeing. You know when youre talking about a bitcoin purpose, etf, its largely going to be sort of institutional players that are going to use this and big players and youve seen a huge outflow here which suggests that theyre taking the risk off the table.
Probably given the macro situation, which has been apparent for a long time, but its now becoming really relevant, i guess um, and you know this is you know this was a good article that ill leave a link to in the description stock market, historically dont bottom out Until the fed eases, so this is what were watching, you know, this is our thesis really moving forwards. Is that it has a lot to do with the fed. How markets do over the coming months has everything to do with the federal reserve and the liquidity that they are providing or are not providing think about? Why theyre upping interest rates its essentially to kill off demand um? And you know that that echoes through to the cryptocurrency market, whether that be institutional demand or whether that be you, know, consumer demand, because consumers are now having to deal with extremely high inflation and their debt payments going through the roof. Um. And this is a a very true one and, like i say you know, were really waiting for that fed pivot before we pivot bullish, because whilst we are – and this is the thing were you know, the fed are looking to get to three point plus percent in The fed funds right by the end of the year were nowhere near that, yet you know: weve got another half and a bit to go. Um thats, just the fund rate, let alone reducing the balance sheet.
This all factors into markets sounds doom and gloom, but theres a good opportunity. Theres amazing opportunities presenting themselves uh in front of us, you know, were looking at lots of altcoins were looking at lots of different cryptos and saying look the cheaper. We can get these the better, because theyre going to do very well over the long term and theyve. You know shown us in terms of people pouring money into them that theyre still very relevant dow futures surged nearly 400 points as the markets set to rebound from a brutal week. So its been brutal again, you can definitely see the scope for more upside um. The issue with crypto right now is there so many catalysts that could bring downside that youve got to be really really cautious and and if we do get a rally in the stock market, you can see the s p futures has opened up quite well. You know once that kind of comes to an end. I think that downside, continuation, um happens and, and there is again a lot of room for the likes of crypto and and the equity market rallying, given just how much cell pressure weve seen. Given the fact that weve seen the dollar take a break were also seeing the likes of nat gas and oil, i mean that gas came right down, so this is all going to filter through into the cpi that were going to get um in the coming months.
Weve also got something here, saying labor market worse than the 1970s, as strikes hit uk nobel prize winner economist, says so were currently having. I think railway strikes at the moment in the uk. This is the thing you know the fed talking about the labour market and using it as kind of um, a reason that allows them to up interest rates and and to to move into this as theyre saying, essentially the economys strong according to the labour market. If you actually pick it apart, the labour market isnt really that strong at all um Music, not for the u.s or the uk. So i am very much. I dont see that a recession is avoidable unless the fed, literally over the coming months, decide that they want to aggressively pivot, but then youre going to have the issue of continuously high inflation um that you know there are certain things that they could do, but its Kind of outside the federal reserves, um operation, so so, for example, biden could come along and start lifting up sanctions, this sort of ease inflation, but it doesnt seem like thats very much what theyre going to do and that doesnt have to just be russian sanctions that Could be the likes of you know some of the chinese sanctions. You know this is all stuff that were paying attention to, as were trying to give you guys a good general view of the cryptocurrency market, where its going and and and maybe what to expect moving forwards.
Of course we can be wrong, but i do think that im seeing lots of just garbage thrown around you know bottom callers, theyve called bottoms on every single rest that weve had and been wrong today. Eventually, theyll be right, but the issue is that what theyve really highlighted is that they have no concept of what is really taking place right now and its not a um accommodating time for markets at all, crypto, no longer dances to its own tune. Weve seen that um be very much the case and the correlation become very much apparent with the traditional market, and whilst we see more downside for that, you know were going to apply that to the cryptocurrency space. That is all ive got for you in this video guys if youve enjoyed the content like us, always appreciate it.