However, bitcoins price today finds itself back at around 20 000. It seems like the cme gap has come back to life and, if you remember the cme gap, its something that im going to explain in the future, video a lot of people are watching. This right now well fully understand what the cme gap is, but if youre interested subscribe in todays video were going to be looking at exactly whats, going on with the traditional markets were going to be looking at the cryptocurrency news, how that is affecting what is going On in the space right now, and, of course, what we expect to come next, but basing all of that off fundamentals, what is going on in the stock market? What does the housing market look like? How long do bear markets traditionally last in the traditional space and how long will that affect the cryptocurrency space for if youre interested in all of those questions, slap a like on this video make sure you are subscribed to the channel turn on channel notifications and lets Crack on so starting out, todays video straight away by looking at this chart right here. This chat right here explains what how long traditionally bear markets last, how long drawdowns in the s p, 500 last how long drawdowns in the stock market last and how long recessions last now break even period of time, the average period of time to break even from Investing at a high point and then the stock market crashings, is about 21 months.

The peak to trough in months only generally takes about 12 months now. I would argue that currently, the financial markets have been in decline for an extended period of time. To me, it almost feels like it has been 12 months. However, of course there is a lot of things on the horizon right now, such as an impending recession that weve not quite entered into. Yet that could mean that that period of time, from 12 months we probably wont have the average well probably have a slightly longer period of time from peak to trough. I personally dont think the markets have quite bottomed yet im holding out just a little bit. Just to you know it could go a little bit worse before it gets better. Now the overall average decline in the stock market is around 32.7 percent during a recession. Translate that into crypto terms minus 95? Why not? It always happens if you look at previous bear markets. Bitcoin has gone from being 1 200 back to being 100, its been from 20 000 down to thousand dollars, and the equivalent loss in this particular bear market would put bitcoins price somewhere around eleven thousand dollars. However, i imagine ten thousand dollars is going to be a bit of a magnet for bitcoin, so ive actually placed some very low ball bids at that ten thousand dollar level. Dont personally expect them to hit, but if they do um, i wont be particularly happy um, but i will have some cheap bitcoins now the next chart i wanted to show you right here, basically shows you how long it takes traditionally for the stock market to break Even having had a 20 decline in price and again that average number sits at about 25 months, so we could be in for quite a wait here.

I personally expect the full bull run is probably going to happen. The next full bull run is probably going to happen around the time of the next bitcoin. Halving currently that period of time is rising because the bitcoin hash rate is falling unless bitcoin is being mined right now, because its becoming less profitable to mine bitcoin, and that number has gone from 611 days to currently being around 710 days. The amount of time it changes, depending on the amount of hash rate, but essentially in around 710 days, two years time. Bitcoin will no doubt be in another. Bull run because were going through that bitcoin halving procedure where the amount of bitcoin mined per block, or rather the block reward, goes from 6.25 bitcoins down to 3.125 bitcoins. When that drop occurs, it basically means the price of bitcoin needs to rise. Otherwise, mining is no longer profitable, so you end up with a huge amount of buying pressure in every single time. Bitcoin has been through a halving. The price has risen very significantly. The last rise was from 3 000 up to 69 000. The rise before that was from about 150 up to 20 000, so this halving procedure does have a huge effect on bitcoins price. Now. The next thing i want to bring to your attention is the inflation rate. There is a lot of speculation currently about the inflation rate, so i thought lets look back at history and see how the inflation rate has performed in history now, looking at this chart right here, this shows the u.

s inflation rate from 1915 up to 1945 a very Period of a very turbulent period of time in american history uh during that period of time we had a huge financial crisis and two world wars, so you could say it was a little bit more turbulent back then than what it is now. However, inflation did move around quite a lot back then, but dont expect inflation to be high forever. Inflation is literally just catching up with the money supply. The governments printed a huge amount of money. Inflation is catching up with that inflation is going to tail off. At some point you can see that back during the war here from 19 kind of 41 up to 1942 yeah thats about 1942, we went from being around zero percent inflation to being around 12 inflation. Then, over the next kind of two or three years, we went back to zero percent inflation again, so these periods of monetary printing have then a knock on effect on the market. Its not a permanent effect dont expect this effect to be permanent governments around the world. I understand theyre completely incompetent but um. They will fix it even if its by manipulating figures, but they will fix it. Its a bit like actually inflation is, is probably around somewhere. 25 20 30. Something like that. But actually the government says its five 8.5 or what? If they say is eight point, six percent um and – and that is something that we see theres – a heavily manipulated figure to make it look as good as possible and thats the best that they could make it look.

The same happened back then. The same is happening right now. I also wanted to bring up one of the impending uh possible triggers for the next huge crash when it comes to the world financial market, which is the housing market, when you have rising interest rates and a lack of money supply that mean and increasing. So currently, the amount of housing being put up for sale has increased exponentially its up around 100 percent month on month or or at the quarter on quarter. Theres, a lot of people listing housing for sale right now and that i assume is because kind of look down has ended. People are looking to move out this flop with a partner. They spent far too long inside that kind of thing, just a lot of housing. A lot of people moving around right now that is causing the price of housing to go down because there is an excess supply, not necessarily in the uk, more so in the usa. Currently we have a huge housing shortage in the uk, so its somewhat immune uh to this right now, but it can catch us. So, looking at this price chart right here, you can see that basically, if you bought a 700 000 house and your monthly repayments were 2 653 fifty six dollars a month and then the rate rise affected, your mortgage to the tune of one thousand two hundred and Forty three percent: imagine your house price has gone down the amount of money that you owe has actually gone up, and your financial situation has got worse because of inflation, robbing you of the value of those dollars that you would be using to prepare your mortgage to Some extent we are immune to this in the uk because we have a lack of housing here in the uk.

However, in the usa, the problem is is kind of a bit different. You have a very different system, but placing an annual increase of debt of fourteen thousand nine hundred and sixteen dollars on any family is gon na have an effect. So if something does go pop, its probably going to be the housing market, however, its not all bad news, i would like to point out to you right now that sentiment is very different than what is actually going on in the market. Sentiment is down bad down. Really bad, but actually the positioning of people in the market, the people that are professionals, the people that hold the most money theyre, not really moving that much right now, and that is shown by this chart right here. You can see that consumer sentiment has dropped so significantly. However, the sentiment and position and allocation of equities has not really dropped all that much at all, showing that the positioning of people in the stock market is not one of fear just yet i mean for me. I think that if we were to have a housing crisis, it would be in two or three years time. I really do think this is a long drawn out process, and so, if youre wondering how to make it out of this process with more money than what you started with, you need to be saving ten thousand dollars a year for the next 30 years and staking Them on a platform with 10 or more interest that would mean over the next 30 years.

If you save 10 000 a year at 10 interest, you would end up with 1.66 million dollars in 30 years time enough to retire on for sure its just youve got to leave that period of time you take out one year from this. You end up with a few hundred thousand dollars less, because the gains are compounded over that period of time. The gains of the last year of the uh staking that youll be doing in this particular case would be worth 160 000 per year. Your ten thousand dollars will be dwarfed by the amount of interest that youre generating on those savings. Taking the long term approach in any market like this is the smart idea trading in the short term to increase the amount of money you have is not a bad idea, its just important that you manage your risk correctly, which is where we get onto the cryptocurrency News for the day, bitcoin holds near twenty thousand dollars, as investors fear domino effect. If bitcoin is to start con continuing the fall, essentially, it could wipe out a lot of people, and i dont expect the fall to continue. I actually expect that twenty thousand dollars is a really good. Buy range actually took five thousand dollars. My profit from the previous day today and bought bitcoin at twenty thousand three hundred dollars uh. The reasoning for that is, i think, the twenty thousand dollars there are. Thereabouts is a really good level to be accumulating because im looking at this from an investment span of three to five years, minimum because im looking for the next bitcoin halving and to sell during the next bitcoin bull market.

And i genuinely think during the next bitcoin bull market bitcoin will hit 150 to 300 000, at least in that range, assuming that 10 000 is bottom and we experience the same gains as what we experienced. This bull run. Bitcoins price would be 200 dollars and assuming that uh well, if we go off the previous bull market, where bitcoin went from being a hundred dollars to being twenty thousand dollars well, you can do the math yourself as a huge increase in price that would put bitcoins Price somewhere, i dont know off the top of my head six hundred thousand dollars something like that, and this is why i explain it doesnt, really matter if you buy bitcoin at ten thousand dollars or twenty thousand dollars, if your investment span is three to five years, It really doesnt matter because twenty thousand dollars is gon na be dwarfed at some point during that period of time, bitcoin is an asset that grows every day in terms of the amount of people using it. The amount of infrastructure investment going on to bitcoin right now is something that isnt slowing down its speeding up. The amount of people setting up businesses in this space is speeding up. Everything in this space is growing. Apart from the number on the screen and thats whats important to remember, the fundamentals for cryptocurrency are very, very bullish, its just in the short term. Everybody is panicking, as i showed you in this chart right here, things could well get worse for bitcoin.

The iranian government is planning to cut power supply for the countrys legal bitcoin mining rigs um. For the simple reason, if theyre taking up too much electricity – and i think if there was to be one thing that caused the downfall of bitcoin, it would be the fact that it just sucks too much electricity. Really people in bitcoin should be investing heavily into renewable energy technology and they are its just now. People have got less money than what they had before and again. Another bad signal for bitcoin right now would be that pro shares will launch an etf aimed at shorting bitcoin following the dip under twenty thousand dollars. But at the same time i would say these people, if they dont, sell their shorts theyre going to get trapped and theyre gon na get trapped within the next 700 days. So at some point during the next 700 days, everybody is investing in an etf like this. Has to sell or theyre going to get liquidated on their position if bitcoin starts going up at a rapid pace again and jp morgan are taking the opposite stance to all of this and saying look, the amount of stable coins in cryptocurrency has never been higher. That means there is more liquidity than ever to buy the dip. That means when bitcoins price starts going up again. It goes up like a rocket and uh. To be honest, i expect that it will do. I really do for me.

My investment span is a long period of time. I expect yours will be as well. You dont expect to get rich overnight. You want to invest in an asset class that is going to safely grow over a number of years. That is not bitcoin. Bitcoin is going to make you very very stressed, but itll make you probably fairly wealthy over the next few years anyway, and if it doesnt, i was wrong im. Sorry, i just want to bring your attention the trades that we took today in the trading diary. Uh, six out of seven of the trades that we posted in the trading diary today were profitable its completely free to join youll, find a link in todays video description uh. The best profit that we experienced today was 280. I was not trading on 50x leverage like this screenshot says thats, just what bibit does we shorted uh ethereum at 1 156 and we closed our trade at 1089? If you want more updates and stuff like that, join the link in todays video description for the tmg trades channel and make sure to join my team for the world series of trading that is happening in just a few days time. It starts very soon. You dont have long to sign up so sign up on the link in todays video description. Thank you very much.