Again um it broke out of this ascending channel, which in itself is not a disaster um, it means, of course there is now a chance. It comes down lower, but that is actually what you want to have. That is what you need to have, because you cant just go up here without a stronger retracement. There are a few um few possibilities that are emerging here. So, first of all a few words here, so there is a chance now that bitcoin has completed its correction, yeah im telling you that for the first time in six to seven months, since we started this overall correction, where i was always saying – we have to go Lower we have to go lower, we have to go lower now, since bitcoin did go into this target area here for the very first time early in may yeah. This was the area below 28.6 k where i told you we just have to get into it, and when we got into this i told you every low could now be the last one. So anything below this could have been the last one um. So we had a couple of lows below that and we need to be on high alert that this could now be the end of the correction, okay, um. Throughout this period. Here i told you: this cannot be the low you know, because the price structure is just super super messy and any breakout. I wouldnt have any trust.

Luckily, we came down again yeah. That was pretty much as expected, and the price with that below, with that new low, has sort of tidied up this whole mess. Okay, um we came down lower here, still look very much like a triangle. We came down even lower hit one of my target levels at seventeen thousand five hundred dollars, and now there is a potential bullish case. There is a bullish case that is forming here. For me, it is still not enough confirmation to really call anything out here. The price structure is still very much evolving and you have to understand as soon as a trend is changing um. We need to wait first for a certain pattern to evolve before being able to make conclusions about and assumptions about the next moves. So at the moment it is still very much unclear, so please understand that these wave counts here might be changing again when things get more and more clearer and then when we have something set up here, then we can make clearer assumptions about the next moves. So theres a couple of ways how this can be all counted. Okay, this could be now in a bullish case, which is again very clearly, not my primary expectation im going to think about making it my primary expectation if we go above 23 331. So something like that, we go higher here and we re test it from above and then start from here.

That could then be a case for primary expectation of a breakout. For now we are just in a sort of turnaround mode and pretty much just in a range in a sideways movement. You could say um, but this here is starting to get a bit promising. We can count this impulsively, but at the moment everybody needs to understand that there is still significant risk that we go down low and actually make a lower low compared to 17 500 and an ideal support level. For that the next one would be 16 900. But if we really come down and make a lower low here, i think it will even go down a little bit lower than that because um, that is what the wave count would then probably suggest depends on which structure is then forming. But for now im just a bit um yeah again on the fence to not being quite sure if this is already um. The turnaround of course, because we just dont have enough price information. Yet you know um, but im, probably one of the few people who actually tells you that there is a case now for turning around, because everybody is still like. Oh, we have to go to 10k yeah the same way that everybody was like. We have to go to 100k end of the year, and i told you already in november that there is a case for uh going below 28.6, which happens so always be aware that the price will change way before the the sentiment of most people before they can.

Actually believe what is going on, the price is changing and turning around before that yeah um. So what we see here is we can count this as all of this as a wave one to the upside yeah here with a peak at twenty one thousand. One hundred that would have been a first impulse and we can count this as a wave two down so pretty much here, um the problem i have with that, and i explained it in more detail in yesterdays video, so check that out. It was a long video, but the problem i have with that is that this wave 2 was a little bit short. Okay, again possible would be very bullish, okay, so as long as we stay above this level, which is 19840 um, however, i can assume that this was wave 2 an abc and that we actually advanced in another impulse to another wave one, because this cannot be the Wave three: it was too short and the wave two here came down to low. So its a one, two, a one two and a one two possible absolutely and that wave two im personally quite happy with because we retraced to a level which absolutely makes sense for a wave 2, which is the 78.6 fit level which is at 20, 184. So, im quite happy with that: retracement yeah, absolutely um or 20 200 yeah. So absolutely so. This could have been very well an a a b and a c, and we could now start from here.

If this was the pattern, then we need to see now a strong push to the upside honestly, because this would be super bullish. It was this would mean we are now in a wave three and this wave three. Let me just show you would need to go at least to the 1.618 extension at 23 200. So we would need to get sort of into this red target in the in well into this red resistance area, and i think we will know that very, very um. Shortly yeah, so this would mean it would need to push higher go above the wave one high at 21, 660 pretty much and then go through to into the red area. This is one interpretation of this. The other interpretation is that this wave one was never finished. So that there was only one wave one which is the entire move up here, and if this is the case, then, with a very high likelihood that wave two would go still a little bit lower yeah. That means it has probably not finished retracing, and we can look at that as well. This would mean that the price would ideally get into the region here between 19.6 k and yeah 18.5. I would say so. This would be. Let me just put it on the chart that would sort of be the alternative um, where it would go to into this area if we go below the 19831 level. So if we put that on the chart here so lets say that low is taken out yeah, then the primary expectation for the bullish case would be that we get into this area that then this would be an alternative wave 2 that not this was the wave 2 up here, but that this is the alternative wave 2 and from here then we start to go yeah.

These would be the two bullish options that i have on the on the plate here at the moment: okay, um bearish – possibility still that all of this here is currently just a correction and that we will still come down below the low of 17 500.. We need to be on high alert for both options. Yeah, it is absolutely possible. This can, of course, be traded, but anybody whos trading at the moment needs to be aware that it is still a very unstable and a very early trend that is forming here. If this is an uptrend, it is still very unstable and very early and yeah. This wave two area would be a possible entry point as soon as there is a bullish signal yeah, maybe even when you come out of it again um. In my opinion, no financial advice, but this is where i would expect it to turn around. If we go below that um here that wave two low that youve seen here in red 19831, we go below that level. Well, go into this yellow box between eighteen thousand five hundred and nineteen thousand six hundred and seventy uh. If we go way below that yeah, then i think you know we. Theoretically, you can come down to the beginning of that impulse with your wave 2, but in reality, if you go much lower, then it probably wasnt a beginning of an impulse and breakout and then it probably is still all in a downward move.

We just at the moment, need to be on high alert for both be aware that this is now the first time that we can really look at a bullish case with confidence, but confidence is still little yeah. We have were still sitting on the fence here, observing and waiting for a clearer, pitched picture to emerge, but i mean its starting to look promising, but what we need to do really is to break above this important resistance zone up here. Okay, that is my view about bitcoin at the moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-ceL6-scY4