Some wednesday morning over here, my heads been split up, but im slowly, recovering and theres plenty to talk about today, as bitcoin did play out. The four hour signal that were looking for yesterday, so i wanted to follow up on that. How that bleeds into the medium term timeframes and now the higher term time setups that weve been kind of looking at over the last few days here, anyways other than that pal is going to be speaking today. So i do expect volatility around that time and yeah. I think thats just about it. Oh yes, and also id like to once again subtly shell know aggressively, show my instagram been doing short. Bitcoin updates there on the story, features just really really easy way to kind of get my thoughts out, especially in the early morning, on a good old, walk and um, and sometimes we do it late in the day, if uh necessary as well, which today could very Well, be one of those days actually with palo speaking later, anyways theres also content on there thats, like not trading related, so it might be, it might not be for you um ill. Let you make that decision for yourself and the link is in the description below any other account other than other than that link is a scammer. It is not me. I can assure you of that, because i get questions about this every day. All right, sweet so lets just jump into it right here i want to follow up on the short term.

From yesterday we were looking at the one two three drives of bush everyones coming off the low on cme on the four hour that was driving the targets up somewhere around this blue box right here we didnt uh, i mean we got pretty close in this case. Uh 21, 7 and change on the highs, and i had a low of that at about 21.8 or so close enough is close enough. No crown he got it wrong, he was 100 off and he should die. I am fair enough. Well, i might already be dying. I mean with this gash in the back of my head, its like its its actually kind of concerning anyways in the short term timeframes right here uh. It should be known that yes, bitcoin is starting to build or confirmed that hidden bearish events that we identified yesterday, which goes back all the way to the highs that we saw from the 10th of january or sorry not june, about june um, which was like closer To 30 000 books, i think somewhere around about 29 000 bucks before the last big breakdown uh, let alone the low 20 000 regions which, which is where were currently at right now, lets see bitcoins actually dancing around just exactly at that number. Essentially. So with that in mind, its not just here on the four hour, but this actually goes all the way up to a rather powerful time from the 12 hour right here, as we do have higher highs on rsi compared to the highs that we did see on The 15th of june, where bitcoin was trading at about 22 200.

Obviously, the rejection yesterday plus local high confirmed you know its going to be uh decently below that so yeah short term downside pressures, i think, are once again on but heres the thing um based off the higher term times which well get into uh in a bit. Here i do think – or at least i certainly would not feel uh comfortable calling like massively new lows for bitcoin uh. You know, can bitcoin re test around the current lows: yeah, absolutely uh! You know low 19s. You know mid 18, something like that completely fine um, but as far as like a new training move to massively new lows, like fifteen thousand sixteen thousand bucks, i do think that thats gon na be a little bit more difficult um for reasons that were gon na Uh go over in a second here, but as it stands right now, what would actually constitute a break or in the very short term timeframes. What are we looking at right here? Well, we do see you know a bit of maybe a bit of a short term bounce um. You know bitcoin can very easily bounce up to the upper 20 or you know just below 21 000 bucks that wouldnt really do anything im, not calling for a bounce. Theres, just you know anything below theres completely irrelevant id even go as far to say that as long as bitcoins below, especially like 21 500, everything that youre looking at is another lower high before playing out that hidden bearish divergences.

On top of that, youll very also likely notice on our stochastic tomos over here short term time. Frames are once again turning down uh again here, as we do see a rejection right at the bullish control zone, and it will be remaining with downside pressure as long as bitcoins below what the exact number that we just uh stated below or sorry before. 21 500. Actually, change right there to be fair. Six hour, i believe, is also gon na turn down below about twenty thousand two hundred, which bitcoins currently below right now. Obviously, all lower term timeframes below the four hour are also angled down below about twenty one ford so that twenty one four to twenty one, five pivot, very, very, very, very big for the short term as long as bitcoins below there pressure remains to the downside. I stick with that: hidden bearish divergence and looking for that to play out um with a confirmed break below 20 200. Essentially – and at that point you know very likely, we testing somewhere around our lows for cme, which is 19.5, and then we need to go to spot price, actually kind of get a general uh guide as to where were at right. Now, hey look at that. Then. Every once in a while, those damn patterns actually play out crazy um, but yeah you know on on um on spot price. Action obviously was trading over the weekend when cme was not so it played out that major move down to uh 17 5 or so so.

You know if and when bitcoin does break 20, 200 or so uh. You know: where do i kind of uh figure it? It will come down to maybe around about 19 000 bucks or so but heres the thing i do think its going to be a little bit difficult now. I can very much be wrong about this and well go over in validations for this in a second, but i do things to be a little bit difficult to get bitcoin to trade towards massively new lows thats, simply due to the higher term timeframe analysis that weve Been posturing over here on this chart, so this is really really really really really important and really really powerful and again. I hope that im as abundantly clear as possible with this, i think most people get this, but you know i do see a few comments about it here and there every once in a while um that this is at earliest going to happen late this week. Best case or sorry, uh best case scenario is like early uh, sorry late this week, whats, maybe a little more likely is probably early next week, and it is this the mean reversion bounce play or in this case a bounce most likely after the big volatility expansion Play so the big volatility expansion play was essentially, what we were looking at on this chart over here for in for for aeons, of course, is the one that i spoke about, probably too much and, of course it is just a very, very low volatility signal over Here, which volatility measures the dispersion of returns, obviously and going to extremes in terms of volatility plus stochastic momentum, also getting the correct direction for that volatility, expansion, and we, you know, we found a good relationship.

Historically speaking, for that setup now, theres a mean reversion play on the other side that i believe is going to be happening relatively soon. Its not, i believe its, like its mathematically, programmed to happen. The question is: what direction we get it in and well go over that in a second as well, but basically, what im talking about is this after we get this extreme over here playing out to this extreme over here, you typically get a mean reversion play, not Always but typically yes, and when we get to these extremes and then bbwp gets a negative slope and below the moving average and then the moving average also gets a negative slope. That is the full on confirmed signal for that high quality play of which you can see in this particular instance over here represented by the green vertical bar um. We can see a nice upside move of about 16 and a half percent done over the course of 12 days. Ive gone ahead and done this for all of the past iterations over the past few years, here, theres 11 of the prior ones – and we found that the average of these mean reversion plays was about 15 spot 24. Again, that is an average, so some of them were like close to 30, maybe even 40. Definitely outliers, and some of them were low, like below 10 average days taken from signal given was about eleven and a half and still cast money.

Tomorrow got the correct direction. 82 of the time, so the first reason uh or sorry, first and foremost, why. I dont think that this is happening today and why ive kind of been saying over the past few days. This is not the bounce that youre looking for its tradable bounce, but its not the bounce that youre looking for for, like the high quality um obvious play here, and it is because of this daily bbwp, as you can see, is still at 100 tile for the New open that we just got and further to that point, the moving average is not even at 100 percent tell either so we need to see first, two things happen which is going to take at least until friday, like minimum minimum minimum, probably not even happen. Anyways and then obviously cme is not trading over the weekend, so you have to wait until like monday for the next one, but it would be this. You need to see the bbwp get below the moving average, so that would take at least one more day, and then you need to see the moving average also get a negative slope which probably gon na take more than one day. So that probably puts us into like early next week, just you know for something thats more reasonable, statistically speaking, um and then yeah. You know once we start to see it. You know go somewhat sufficiently like that thats when you probably get your mean reversion play of which, as we did say, 82 of the time these castle monster has gotten the correct direction on that uh move which for right now, with the cast momentum like way.

The down here in, like super extremes, it really wouldnt take too much to get it to move to the upside, which would give it about an 82 percent historical uh chance to bounce the upside again, probably at earliest happening next week. And you can see that the daily scouts monster will actually remain down. Itll literally remain down as long as bitcoins below twenty thousand eight hundred heres. Another interesting thing about this as well, however, is that the daily stoke on cme is so low here, not that you know it cant go lower. I mean it can always go lower bro right um, but we can see in the history of bitcoin uh for cme theres really only been one two three four times in the past, where weve actually even seen it this low ill even mark off. Some of these more early ones now this is not in anyone – should perform a macro low call as youre going to be seen, but you know probably a balance call to be fair, uh sometime. You know last week of june early july, something like that. But yeah you know you can see this one over here. This one failed. It was still a pretty nice bounce, though uh off the low something like this yeah. It was about 24 percent, not bad uh. This one over here you know, also failed. Ultimately, in a bear market – 20 – 69 – not bad this one over here you know we again another phenomenal bounce, but ultimately failed 50, 50 balance insane um and then uh, i dont know.

I think we had like another one more recently yeah that was uh. Well, we had this one over here in november 2018, again another failed bounce, but did get a nice move and then wheres the one that was like most recent okay there it is. It was like way back on over here again another failed bounce. It was uh, it was about 11 or let me double check on this. One yeah about 11 12 to the upside did end up failing, however, all right, cool or maybe not so cool if youre like super bullishly, enthusiastic right now, um but yeah, you know. So what does this likely? Look like you know, maybe bitcoin trades. A little bit sideways here, maybe drops a little bit lower, plays out something similar to what we saw over the weekend for spot price action at that point, probably looking for, like the actual bounce, um and uh, and that probably happens over the course of you know A little over 11 days and if we get the stoke actually turning up as well, which wont be happening again as long as bitcoins below 28 800, at least for today, then you know probably not even worth really talking about, but but the move. I would expect. Actually to be on the upper end of that average, so probably probably at least 30 percent – to be quite frank with him, maybe even a little bit more than that, based off of one the stochastic uh level and then to the um.

The average mean reversion balances that we have seen in the past so depending upon where bitcoin actually uh initiates that from its gon na completely change the target. You know if it were to happen from here which, probably not, but if it were to happen from here lets just see like what would 25 look like 25. 500. Not bad 30 puts you at the gap fill from that last major gap down uh in 10th of june, but thats. If we started from here like what, if we go down to you know 18.5 or somewhere around where bitcoin spot went over the weekend. Well, 25. There just puts you back up towards 23.. Basically, your range highs, which is not that impressive um. What, if its like more like 30, not that much higher about 24, 000 or so so you know. Do you keep an eye on that as uh thats massively going to govern at least my sort of look as to where things are likely to land um uh whats? It called as we come into um, probably like next week. Until then, short term yeah, downside um, you know the the the signal that were looking at yesterday has come to fruition now, both of them actually the very short term, and now the uh medium term timeframe. Signals are starting to play out so yeah im. Looking for this one to come back down and then well see what happens when powell speaks a little bit later today, other than that, i will probably do an instagram update if um yeah, if it makes sense, if not then not but um yeah, expect that todays Gon na be a little bit of fun, so with that said, i want to be wishing.

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