"This Will Give Us A Bottom" – Gareth Soloway Bitcoin Interview
Charts are always truth versus emotion, and i think we always have to remember that whether youre a bull or a bear price and price charts are whats going to give you the clearest signal. So we saw the break of 20 000 just this past. You know really. This past weekend – and the key here is to understand why it broke 20 000, because there were a lot of people saying: hey. 20, 000 is the low you know and by the way they all came on once we got to like 30, they all piled on the bandwagon, but the bottom line is when you have everyone calling for a low of 20. You have a lot of people. Putting stops just under 20 and its the tendency of a market to run those stops, make people freak out, make the weak hands exit, and then you finally get a short term bottom. And what you could see here is that we had this collapsed from about 40. 000 down to about 26 or so 25 and 26 that actually, that moved down to 14 000, its about 14 thousand dollars, was replicated perfectly with a measured move down to about seventeen thousand five hundred so thats a measured move. That gives you a good basis for a low. In addition, if we take a look, we know that the january or the december 2017 high. That was a major level. We have now recaptured it after just piercing it briefly.
So we know that support and then even one more little tidbit of great technical analysis is that if you take the low from march of 2020, which is the low from covid, which was the lowest point going back to quite a while on bitcoin, it was around Four thousand dollars and if you connect it to this recent low – and you drag a parallel line up – you get the two highs from last april as well as november, so theres, a confluence of technical, supports right here. That signal to me at least we have a bounce here, probably to 25, to 30 000 in the cards. I think, as we get and stay above 20 000 a lot more people are going to start to say: hey, we have a major low in bitcoin and youre going to see the bulls come back with a vengeance trying to say. Okay, now were going to start heading back up to all time highs. I think thatll propel it over the next, probably three to six weeks back to 25 to 30 000 um, which again from 17 000, is a lower 17.5 percentage, wise thats massive. Now, if youre in from 60 or 65, that doesnt seem such a good bounce but again in percentage terms, thats a major major move now, once we get there, unfortunately, i still see more downside. I still think that we will likely head down to probably about 12 000, which is my second price target on the downside, so i think its important to recognize that i remain a long term bull on bitcoin.
In fact, when we broke 20 000 at 19, i announced that i started my beginning huddle position, and so ever since we were at 65 000, even though i was bearish, i was always saying: hey, listen long term, i think theres a huge place in economy in The world for bitcoin – and i think well get there well get to 100 000 500. Maybe a million dollars its just. You have to flush out all the weak nonsense. I think. Last time we talked, we talked about that darwinian concept of only the strongest will survive, and you just have so much crap in the system. Frankly right. So the idea here is that in the near term, a bounce back to 25 or 30. The reason 25 is a key level is that is your low from the the tara luna collapse, so that is going to be re, uh resistance and then, if you go up, there was a ton of consolidation for about a month that occurred just around 30 000 And that is going to be major resistance, so its hard for me to imagine with the nasdaq, even though i expect bounces there. I still think the nasdaqs headed a lot lower, at least to the covet highs that the bitcoin market would bottom just yet fully. So i still think we need to wash out more of the weak handed bitcoin the kryptos, and that will finally give us later this year – a big point bottom, so i do think theres a decent chance that were back to 65 within two or three years.
I think this next six months or so is going to be the hardest, then well bottom out, and then youll probably have another six months of sideways chop. If we look at past cycles on bitcoin its usually that first year down and then you get a sideways kind of choppy where the bulls and the bears are just battling it out for a period of time and then finally, you start to get that move up And im still a believer that inflation is going to be a systemic problem, maybe not at eight or nine percent, but at five percent. And i still believe that when the economy really tumbles here and i started im starting to see the signals of that that eventually the fed will say – okay, we have five percent or four percent inflation, but we have ten percent unemployment. We now need to print again, which is going to be another positive for bitcoin. So again, there longer term lots of positives for bitcoin. I dont think its going away. I dont think its going to zero ever, but ultimately, you just have to weather the storm. Essentially, like i dont think, the s p or the nasdaq are going to hit new all time highs for years. I think we could be in a scenario like the nasdaq was in 2000, where, when you finally dumped out it took about 15 years to make new all time highs, but i think bitcoin will get there a lot sooner because its not an economic play right.
So if the economy is suffering, if you have this systemic kind of bear market longer period, thats bad for stocks but bitcoin, because the printing presses will start up again. That would be ultimately a bullish scenario, so it may just take a little bit longer. I mean everyone wanted that instant gratification when, when we were at 69, everyone was calling for it by the end of november last year, um the markets just dont work that way, when everyones on one side, theyre going to flush out everyone and try to get everyone To kind of give up um, but eventually the asset makes sense right. We need it in the world. We live in with the money printing with the federal reserve and the central banks and just kind of the inflationary environment. So it is going to 100 and it is going beyond. Okay and now lets be clear, and i think i think i even saw a comment on on on the question that you asked on twitter that got people to ask questions where they were saying. You know you have to recognize that this is a different environment. Bitcoin has never been through a massive hiking um environment, with no stimulus coming into the system, so it could take longer. But past cycles have shown us it bottoms after 12 months and with eight in in the next six months so 18 months out it starts to chop and then you get that next bullish run between 18 and 24 months.
So so the idea is, you know within two to three years i think youre likely back a two or above the 65, 69 000 level, so the important thing is based on right now. The next target is 12 000, but i think its important to recognize that its very possible we go below 10. 000. All right, you know. One thing ive learned in my trading career of stocks and commodities and now crypto is that assets go much further to the upside than anyone thinks and much further to the downside, i would say that you would prefer not to see the lows from 2018 and 19 Taken out, which were around 3 500. aside from that this new unprecedented environment for crypto because of the fed and what theyre doing and theyre pulling out money and sucking it out of the system, you have to expect that it could be a very rocky ride. So, just to give you a sense of how im playing this, i started a huddle position at 19, 000, just a small amount. I basically said to myself: what do i want to invest in bitcoin over the longer term to just buy and hold, and i came up with a number and i divided it in six parts, and i took that first sixth amount of money and i bought it. 19 and im gon na basically put a buy level of that amount, one sixth, every three thousand down and so im looking at even potentially having some still buyable money even below 12 000, because i recognize from my history of trading that it can easily go below My lowest point so im at a dollar cost average now starting from 19 16, 14 uh 13, you know 10 and so forth.
All the way down is that in general, when you know that theres big institutional money, thats going to be forced and that its leveraged at certain levels, then the market is just naturally drawn to those levels to put maximum pressure. So, for instance, i had heard that 20 to 21 000 was a key level for michael saylor and microstrategys holding now im hearing that they came out and said: no, we can weather the storm lower and so forth, which is fine, but the key is you have To see more um kind of big money, thats leveraged kind of getting blown up, and you also have to see – i mean again im in the camp that 90 to 95 of all altcoins need to go to zero and again. For that to happen, it makes a lot of sense that bitcoins gon na have to go down lower than this.