Bitcoin is Going Lower…Here is Why
So if thats interesting definitely stick around, if you enjoy these forms of content, consider checking out the patreon link down below. That is where i share these types of content, much more frequently on a daily basis. Now, looking at the charts, what i did was, i looked back at bitcoins 10 year history and tried to identify patterns, and the question i asked myself was when bitcoin broke down from these patterns. Did the price targets meet? The first pattern we see is in 2013, where bitcoin created this symmetrical triangle. It pretty much made it all the way to the apex broke down and pretty much hit that bottom price target. Ever since that bottom target hit bitcoin pretty much ran up. Another 1600 percent, then, from 2013 to 2014 bitcoin, was in this downward channel now, typically for a channel, the way you break down or break up you measure from the top to the bottom of that channel and to the potential breakout point and unfortunately, bitcoin failed to Continue the breakout and it eventually broke down. So what we have to do is bring this target below the channel to the potential breakdown point right over there and that target pretty much met and held as support throughout 2015 and then in 2018. Bitcoin formed this descending horizontal triangle. Now this is typically a bearish pattern. Bitcoin pretty much made it all the way to its apex. The way you measure the breakdown target is measuring from the top to the bottom, to the breakdown point right over there and bitcoin pretty much hit and nailed that bottom and then in 2019.
What did we have another descending channel like we did in 2014.? Now it was very similar because we did end up breaking up, but because of the covet crash it pretty much failed that breakout. So what do we do? We move it down and again it hit that price target to the bottom. If anything, it went a little bit lower and right now we have something very similar going on as well. Bitcoin was in this descending channel. It eventually ended up breaking down, and so you would measure from the top to the bottom of that channel. To that breakdown point which is right over here and that actually gives us a price target of 13.8 k from its previous all time, high. That would be approximately around an 80 correction, which is in line with bitcoins previous corrections. Now there are two more indicators that i do want to share to back up this price target, but before i do, i do want to thank our sponsor for todays video kucoin. If you guys are interested in signing up, i do have a referral link down below. If you do use my code, you can get up to a 500 bonus on top of that, if you deposit a hundred dollars worth of crypto, it can be bitcoin or a stable coin and make a trade with it. They will deposit 25 into your account within 10 days. You can sell your stable coins or you can buy stable coins and youd automatically be making a 25 return on your investment.
Also for anyone that uses my link, kucoin will be choosing four random winners and be giving 250 away. They established back in 2017. They are one of the top five crypto exchanges in the cryptocurrency space. They have over 10 million registered users and over 600 different types of altcoins. They have one of the lowest trading fees that i know of you. Can trade earn and explore all the features that they have within their exchange, including trading bots, so definitely check out kucoins link down below so another reason why bitcoin could potentially go down to 14k is because of the bitcoin logarithmic regression band. Now, if you look at the ban, its done a pretty good job of connecting all the datas from the previous price history, im gon na delete all the drawings for now, but the first thing you cannotice is that any time bitcoin fell in this green zone over Here its historically been a pretty good time to accumulate and right now we are in that range. Now, if you go to the bottom of this band right now, the price is somewhere around 15.6 k. So technically, yes, we could bottom out there, but we know that in 2020 bitcoin which down an additional 21 below the band. So if bitcoin does decide to sell off and wick below the green band, well, an additional 20 below the band will put bitcoin around the 12k range now im, not saying that a 12k bitcoin will happen but its possible.
You know something like this can happen where the ban could continue. Bitcoin could get a small little relief rally then get a sell off thats very possible. That could happen sometime in late 2022, but if we get another massive capitulation and sell off, then i do believe that 14k is definitely possible. Next, i want to use the fibonacci retracement tool to get an idea of how low could bitcoin go in the bear market based off the past two cycles. So right now, im gon na measure from the bottom of 2012 to the high of 2013. im gon na. Go ahead and measure all three of them. First then, were gon na go from the low of 2015 to the high of 2017 and the low of 2018 all the way to the 69k top. So, on the fib level, this is the 786 and bitcoin went below approximately around 40 below the 786, and once bitcoin got back above the 786, it pretty much continued higher in 2018 bitcoin went 26 below the 786 once it went above it it continued higher. Now the interesting thing is the 786 pretty much held as support during the 2020 crash right now. Bitcoin has not gone below the 786, yet so, assuming that we are in a bear market technically, if we go down, you know 25, like we did last time. That puts bitcoin again around 12.5 k. So could we go lower than 14k very possible now, if you believe in diminishing returns and diminishing corrections? Well, we can, you know, decrease this correction to about you, know 15 and that will put bitcoin around 14 000 so based on all technical pattern, breakdowns the bitcoin logarithmic regression band and the fibonacci retracement tools.
It all suggests that bitcoin could technically go lower to the 14k range. Now. What makes this correction for bitcoin much different than previous corrections is bitcoin, never went through high inflation numbers, never went through quantitative tightening and never went through a war, so its gon na be very interesting to see how bitcoin performs, i think, its important to look at The stock market as well such as the s p 500, to see how that performs. Just based on my analysis, i do think that the s p 500 could go a little bit lower that could possibly drag bitcoin down lower as well. Now that ive shared all this and that you know this, what should you do? Well, i cant tell you what to do because im, not a financial advisor or anything that i share in this entire video financial advice but ill. Tell you what i am doing so based off of this model alone. As long as bitcoin is ranging in this green zone, i will continue to dollar cost average into bitcoin every single day, meaning i am buying bitcoin every single day, even if theres a possibility that bitcoin could go lower, and this is because i could be completely wrong Right, based on my analysis, you know 14k bitcoin could be very possible, but the hope is that im wrong and if the market reverses next week next month, thats totally fine with me, because ive been buying bitcoin every single day.
You know right now, im not in any rush to buy the dip, because i do believe that bitcoin will continue to consolidate sideways for at least a minimum of six months to one year, as i dollar costs averaging every single day. I will also be accumulating cash on the side, so if bitcoin does end up dipping all the way down to 1412 or even 10k, then ill at least have cash on the side to buy the dip, and if the market decides to go up well, thats totally. Fine because ive been accumulating every single day, you know historically, anytime bitcoin was in this green zone, the previous time it spent around 850 days, the second time it spent about 182 days. Before it went up, then it went back down. So if we add it all together, that was about 715 days. So if bitcoin decides to do something similar like it did in 2019 over here, that means by january of 2023, we could see a small little relief rally if it decides to do the whole 700 to you know 800 days. That means that bitcoin could be going sideways until june of 2024, which is in line with the next bitcoin having so the point of this video is to prepare yourself mentally in case you know, prices do drop, youre not going to be upset instead, youre going to Be prepared and ready, because youre going to have cash on the side to buy the dip.
Those that have been accumulating cash and have cash on the side ready to buy the dip are the ones that are going to be happy about the dip and excited about the dip. On the other hand, people who do not have any cash on the side are going to be very upset during the dips, because theyre going to miss out on a great buying opportunity, so prepare for the worst, but lets hope that the worst does not happen. Well with that, i hope you all enjoyed this video. If you did, please give it a big thumbs up. If you have any questions or comments, leave it down below definitely check out kucoin link down below as well and consider checking out the patreon group.