So this is all basically a preparation for that and whats to come and other than that. Oh yeah im going to be on a video with benjamin cowan later today, which im really looking forward to and then also ill once again chill aggressively or subtly. My instagram been doing some very short, bitcoin updates there on the stories feature um. I understand that uh thats not gon na, be for everyone, of course, because theres other things on instagram as well on my all my feeds, which you may or may not be into its all good man. But if you arent, there is a link in the description below and then most importantly, any other account. But the one that you see in the description below is a scammer. Its not me. Please understand that i dont have any sort of secret trading group or anything like that and yeah. I think we just move on from there all right so lets uh lets pick up where we left off from yesterday. So yesterday i was looking at uh, hidden bearish stuff earnest on the short term time frames. I think it was also potentially even building up all the way to a 12 hour time from over here, although no it did not get confirmed, but on the short term timeframes yeah. It did get confirmed, but you see a short term time frame, moved to the downside of the range for cme, which was 19 700 or so would have liked to have seen it a little bit lower than that.

But ultimately, good enough is good enough. In this case, and what do we have right here? Well, we have bullish ever its actually formulating on the other side right now, which would be one two three four drives coming off the lows, which would be overall good, probably at least for a test to the top side of this descending formation. That bitcoin is seemingly wedging itself into right here, which i have coming in at around 21, 200 or so anywhere around. There is fair game, so short term, you know: do we see a move somewhere back around there? Perhaps yes, but ultimately, as long as bitcoin is following these lower highs right here, it is still an overall downtrend and a threat of a short term move to the downside does still remain. The question is, as i have been kind of postulating this this week, did we already see that move to the downside in the short term or not? Was that the move yesterday to just 19 7, because that was not like a super strong downside move to be fair um, it recovered rather well after jay pal started speaking um, but ultimately the big focus is on the obvious signal, the big signal you know for My own self, when it comes to trading im, not interested in playing the things that im, you know, im less confident its, not even confidence, just the things that are lower, probabilistically speaking uh im, just not interested as a trader.

I consider that gambling, but what i am said is, of course, the signal that weve been looking at brewing for the past, almost uh, four or five days now, which well go over in a second here, but as far as this goes, this would essentially imply that, As long as bitcoin is especially below that trend line, or even just as long as bitcoins below that last lower high, which is 21 500, i believe sorry its actually more like twenty one, six or so you know we still have a downtrend and an overall threat. Uh threat lower upon a break of the overall bottom side, support, which is nineteen thousand six hundred and fifty um on even a four hour time frame below there. Then yes, we would have a technical, measured move, which i will plot out right now, although i think its more likely, we probably try a little bit of upside here short term uh. If anything and thatd be pointed down around about 18 000 bucks, um heres the thing, though, if bitcoin can trade above especially that last lower high, maybe front runnable, on a break of the actual trend line right here, which is about 21 200 on a closing basis, Then i would be looking for at minimum a move back up somewhere around, at least that last prior high, which is probably more like around here – 22 40 – maybe even 22.5, which has great confluence with the weekly 200 moon average.

As that is going to be a natural area to be aware of going onwards and forwards from here as long as bitcoins below there, you know it is forced risk on, but i imagine were probably gon na see some oscillations around there. You know it was like a big mimi right where people are like um, i mean maybe for good reason as well. Bitcoin has never broken the 200 simple on the weekly its like its never going to do it. Of course, you know moving averages warband to be broken, its ridiculous concept to suggest that, just because something that happened, it will never happen again. Um. You know just bitcoin hasnt been around for long enough to do it really, realistically speaking uh, but in this case right here you know it could be a good trappy area if you will so keep an eye on that, because bitcoin does start trade above that region. Yeah, i would be looking for to rip. You know another um, 1500 bucks higher. You know, maybe even all the way to uh 235 to 24 000 bucks. As we do see, some pretty obvious ranges coming in right around here um. So do you keep in on that uh, perhaps even over the weekend? So with that in mind and tell them you know what am i looking at? You know. Maybe something like this – maybe something like that and well get resolution probably coming into next week.

Obviously, because cme is not going to be trading over the weekend, so lets go check out still cast momentum just to see kind of where were at for the moment, and we do see on six hours to catch momentum actually see it turn back up with any Sort of a closure here or higher, which is closing in actually three hours and 14 minutes, so not that soon, but that would be thousand five thirty, so keep your eyes on that number four hour will also turn up above twenty thousand six hundred okay. So we see things coming in around the same levels: twelve hour will be continuing with upside and also breaking the moving average on this uh as long as bitcoins above nineteen thousand 19850 again corrective signal here, but good enough for maybe an extension of the bounce three Hour is going to be showing uh upside above 20, 000 and hourly is going to be up above 20, 200. So fair enough id be looking at the four and six hour in this case as kind of governing the short term and uh, seeing you know what happens if and when bitcoin does get somewhere just above 21 uh right there, so im gon na get rid of The larp lines for right now and what else do i want to get into? Well? I suppose this is the time where we go check out funny rates for an extra buys on this, not giving us anything for the hourly here, zero percent, which you know this has been incredibly accurate for us, barring one failed iteration this past weekend.

For the past few months, but for right now no bias at all its literally zero percent, so i dont have any major opinion on that um other than that. What else can we look at? We can look at, of course, my favorite chart over here. There is something new to be speaking about or spoken about. Speaking i dont know. I dont know english what the um anyways uh theres something new on this chart over here, the uh, the the volatility versus stochastic momentum, mean reversion chart of which look at this. We do see 100 percentile on both the bbwp and the moving average itself, so naturally speaking, this will imply that the bbwp will be inherently cooling off, maybe as soon as tomorrow, uh meaning below the moving average itself and below 100 tile uh. Perhaps as late as monday or tuesday of this next coming week, at that point you know it might take another day or two theres a little bit of variability in that to be fair. But ultimately, that is typically where we do see the very high quality meme reversion plays based off of this overall signal over here. So the original signal im not going to go over that again, because i dont want to bore this out of people, and i imagine its probably mostly the same people watching anyways. But as far as this signal goes its maturing now, which is a good sign. On top of that, we see the daily castle mental moss that are turning as well.

The reason why that is important is because the stochastic momentum oscillator has gotten the correct direction on that signal. For 82 percent of the time might even be going up. If this one does bounce as well and the daily will actually cross the upside above 21 100, which youll notice or sorry youll, remember probably from back and over here, that would be above or yeah theyll be above actually or basically around, that current trend line that We do see declining here definitely around end of day. Today, thatll actually be around twenty one thousand one hundred so bitcoin can close a daily above there then i would say thats a good early indication that bitcoins most likely to bounce a pretty good amount um to the upside from here uh, as we have gone over In the past, the average of or sorry the statistical analysis of this has shown that the average reversion has done about 15 spot. Two four percent from the signal given and the signal given again is like what we saw over here. Basically, in may, where we need to see the bbwp getting below the moving average with a negative slope, and then the movie number is doing the same thing. If we have both, if we have all three of those components, thats like the full on no holds bar uh signal, although sometimes we do see it with just the bbwp getting below the moving average. Although you know again, this one over here is just so picture.

Perfect, i expect it to kind of operate in that same way. So it again, it completely depends on where the signal, actually you know, gets fired off from so where those measurements can kind of get taken from as well, but lets just you know, pause uh, hypothesize hypothesis, gate. I dont know again um but lets just say. Let me get rid of this for right now, um as it looks like. Maybe that moves a little bit less likely to happen um, but lets say you know what happens from this region right here. Okay, so we you know, take the average of that 15 and a half percent, or so uh puts bitcoin actually right around our daily branch highs, which is 23 to 30., so thatd be the area of interest but heres the thing this is an average that ive Taken over all the past iterations that weve seen in the past uh, actually, i think three years now um, so some of them weve seen higher. You can see this one over here, its 30 almost 35. Some of them will be seen lower, of course, as well. So i actually do think that theres good reason to believe that this one probably is going to be on the upper end of that. Simply because were seeing extremes here for a much longer time after basing off for a long time as well. So if we play around with numbers again were making two assumptions now so not only the average bounce but also where that bounce starts from but lets just say it starts hypothetically from here thats the word thats it hypothetically there we go um hypothetically, it starts from Here, if we were to say like 25, that puts bitcoin at 25 000 bucks.

If we say you know 35, that puts bitcoin around the last gap fill that we saw from uh 13th of june. If we kind of cut that to the middle, you know maybe somewhere right around about 26, so those would be areas of interest um upon validation of that signal. Again, it completely depends upon where we actually start that one from so where, where is the daily cl? Uh open when this one actually does far off the full and uh and unambiguous uh signal uh. Somebody like we saw back on over here, which, by the way, was not the actual low. In fact, this would be a really good time to kind of speak about this for a second, so people have uh or theres, been a few really good comments about this saying: hey crown, what do you mean balance bitcoins, already bounced um x percentage off the lows: Fair enough, yes, just like over here, bitcoin bounced up 25 off the lows like very, very nice, but it wasnt the signal didnt actually formulate itself until over here, and that was the high quality one. Alongside these still caps mental models that are given the same direction as well, so why do i say that? Well, this over here kind of wick fishing into a region like that, from the way that i look at things is more or less gambling there. You know whats your edge there. How are you uh? You know how? How is the signal being defined? I mean you can maybe go off like horizontal support and resistance, blah blah blah blah fair enough.

You know have to do the data for that as well, but in this case i would say based off the signal: thats, not the one im looking for, even though that move was actually bigger. I look at that move as more risky, because where does it start from? Did we do it from the day before? Do we do it from the day before that you know its its uh, its just its ambiguous im? Looking for the more obvious thing, the thing that can be actually tested uh over time and thats, what we see over here and thats. What i suspect that well see over here as well and its just going to be a question of you know where does bitcoin kind of land at these levels? So i think thats a good place for me to kind of leave this one off um again ill. Probably do a bitcoin update late later today, if necessary, especially bitcoin, actually breaks this area to the upside.

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