"My Plan To This Chaos" – Michael Saylor Bitcoin Interview & Reaction To Crypto Crash
The money supply is up 17, the nasdaqs down 2 goals down 9. The s p is up 9 and the only thing that looks better than the money supply expansion is single family homes. Up 26, i couldnt have bought billions of dollars of single family homes and so thats, not even practical, so the bottom line is the bitcoin strategy is 10x better than any other alternative, and so no, i dont regret it. Uh weve got 2.8 billion dollars worth of bitcoin on our balance sheet right now, and we feel like were positioned well for when uh the markets turn around, and our only other choice would be to give all the capital back to the shareholders, in which case we Would have nothing and we would be struggling uh to get by without any assets. We dont panic. We have. We have the strategy were not traders. If your time horizon is less than four years youre sort of a trader, if its in the months youre, definitely a trader im, not an expert trader, i dont have a crystal ball. I dont know where the markets going to go week by week, month by month, uh, if your time horizon is more than four years youre an investor and when your time horizon is 10 years, youre kind of a saver. So we have a very long term, 10 year time horizon and our view is over the 10 years. Uh bitcoins gon na be a good idea and its just gon na keep accreting and value uh.
You know i cant tell you whether itll go down a bit here and there its in the near term, emily it trades like a high beta risk asset and theres. No denying that, over the long term, we believe its a low risk store of value asset theres about 10, things that have to happen uh over the next decade to make it a better asset and we kind of know what those 10 things are so were waiting And uh and biding our time, and we think that its going to improve uh as an asset class over time and were not in a hurry. No, i think its been a net positive. We back tested our strategy against every other alternative and if you roll the clock back to august 10th of 2020, when we embarked on this journey, bitcoins performed 10x better than anything else. Golds down 10 nasdaq is flat. Bitcoin is up 86 since that time, over any time frame, two years four years, eight years, bitcoins the best performing asset. I cant come up with a better idea: yeah um, i think uh. If you think about bitcoin. If your time horizon is one month, it looks like a volatile risk asset, but if your time horizon is 10 years, it looks like a risk off store of value asset. So the the crossover point is four years: nobodys ever lost money investing in bitcoin for four years, and if you want to surrogate for the book value of the bitcoin network, it would be the four year simple moving average the simple moving average of bitcoin over four Years is about twenty one thousand six hundred eighty five dollars.
Uh bitcoins only touched that uh that point a couple of times in its history and those are always been great. Buying opportunities right. This is all right. Bitcoins were touching that yeah were touching that price right now, its funny, you should mention it. So is it a great buying opportunity, absolutely bitcoins, backed by the most powerful, secure computer network in the world? If i gave you 100 billion dollars, you cant reproduce it and its beyond a nation state attack or corporate attacks. So once you understand that and the fact that its a singularity theres, nothing like it in the world, then yeah. This is an ideal entry point to get into this thing, yeah sure, on a multi billion dollar balance sheet, weve only got a 200 million dollar loan that we have to collateralize and were 10x over collateralized on that right now, if the market traded down by a Factor of 10 weve got cash and we generate cash flow, so this has all been. The margin. Call thing is much ado about nothing. Its just made me twitter famous. So i appreciate that uh and the twitter trolls love to beat up on me because it gets them engagement. As for the companys balance sheet strategy, in general, we borrowed 2.2 billion dollars at a blended interest rate of 1.8 percent before interest rates doubled. Junk bond index is from 426 basis points to 820 basis points. Mortgage rates have doubled. If you had a chance to grab two billion dollars at one and a half percent interest, it seems like a reasonable thing to do and im glad we did it most of it is unsecured debt and 1.
7 billion of it is unsecured. The 500 million comes due in seven years after we borrowed the money, so we feel like we have. A fortress balance sheet were comfortable and uh, and the margin loan is well managed. Yeah i mean the money. Supply is expanded by 41 percent uh. Since january. 1St of 2020, when we went into this kind of covet crisis – and we know that scarce desirable assets are getting bit up in price, i mean everybody wants to buy rolex, watches, theyre, buying luxury real estate, theyre, buying everything they get their hands on creating shortages. So you know we are an institution, we have to take a 10 year view, and the only thing thats for sure is if we hold cash over a decade, were going to have a negative, real yield. The only question is how much so we have to invest in something and weve chosen as a business strategy to fos focus on what we believe is the most exciting investment idea, because its a digital commodity, thats, absolutely scarce and only getting technically better every year yeah. I i think it is on sale um. I you know the number that i look at to figure out. Uh sort of the a surrogate for the book value of bitcoin is the four year simple moving average because it trades billions of dollars a day and so after 1400 days of billions of dollars a day that number is 21 700.
uh bitcoin touched that uh in The march 2020 2020 crisis. It touched it around 2017., its touching it right. Now, generally it trades above there. You know our strategy is uh were going to acquire bitcoin with our free cash flows from time to time, so were kind of dollar cost averaging into bitcoin and were going to hold the bitcoin for the long term and uh, and so it wouldnt really matter whether The price was 10, more or 20, more or 50 percent. More uh were just going to progressively acquire more bitcoin uh because thats our strategy, but so you are in terms of bank for sale, yeah, i mean its like not a bad price and we will keep buying more yeah. So lets take the ten sources of my pain, um theres, no wash trading rules, so people can they can sell their bitcoin and buy it back and harvest the tax gain and thats not the same with apple. So if that gets fixed by the house, ways and means committee thats, a big plus for the asset, theres 520 unregistered crypto exchanges offering 20x leverage thats a negative for the asset class as they get regulated and i expect they will and as the 20x leverage disappears. Thatll be a positive theres, 19 000 unregistered securities in the crypto industry cross collateralized against bitcoin, as as those things have to uh have to get eliminated, or they have to convert them into publicly traded instruments.
Thats going to decrease the volatility to be a big shakeout. The wildcat banks, like the you, know the terrorism lunas and celsius. They actually create massive volatility and as they get regulated and they disappear and they grow up and become institutionalized banks uh the asset class will mature theres a lot of ignorance and fear. People think crypto is the same as bitcoin if they think that that means they dont understand either of those two things we dont have a stable coin. Emily uh, like ust, isnt, a stable coin tether, is an opaque, uh security. No one understands if we ever have an fdic issued stable coin or something from a public entity, thats endorsed by the sec thats going to be very bullish for the industry, theres no spot etf. I think its only a matter of time before there is one approved thatll be very bullish for the industry. The fasb accounting is detrimental. The lack of fdic guidance makes it difficult, if not impossible, for banks to to hold this stuff were waiting for clear sec. Cftc guidance and those 10 things theyre going to get cured over the next decade. Theyre, just not going to get cured over the next 10 weeks, were crossing the chasm uh theres about a trillion dollars in the asset cost 400 billion is bitcoin. The other 400 billion is 19 000 unregistered securities uh were moving from the era of the offshore entrepreneur to the uh to the onshore public institution and its pretty clear from chair genslers comments that he made in the last few days that uh they want to see.
All the crypto exchanges regulated uh, they wan na they wan na clean up this industry. The stable coin is going to have to be cleaned up as well and uh. The winners are going to be the public investors in public banks and public companies, and the losers are going to be the wildcatters, you know, and the entrepreneurs the guts got started that are flying by the seat of their pants and i think its essential for us To move from a one trillion dollar industry to a 10 trillion dollar industry, so i welcome it.