Bitcoin Historical 15.24% Price Signal & What To Expect This Week
My little hand transport over here. My little seeds are growing slowly but surely, and that is um for the buy bit link for the zero percent maker fees um that ive that weve had here through that link um for the past few days, there actually hasnt it actually hasnt applied, and so i Reached out to my buy bit manager – and he assured me that uh it was, it was a mistake and whats gon na happen is for anyone who signed up with that youre gon na get an extra 30 days. So you get 60 days in total of zero percent maker fees which, in my opinion, thats like actually a really really good deal and something that im comfortable and happy to promote because thats like thats, just more money in your pocket, basically um for anyone else who Signs up after this i think after today, then youll just get 30 days, still pretty damn good um and basically the way, the reason that we got. That is because i just its because i agreed to join the world series of trading, so we actually need a full team. Um you dont actually have to. You know participate if you dont want, but it would be nice to have a full team, of which i think we need like one or two more people. There is a link in the description below as well other than that no pressure, of course, and i think its time to actually get into the content.
So lets start it off with the heavy hitting stuff right off the bat right here, the big so that we have been kind of focusing on for the past week and a half now actually, two of them really uh are becoming more and more relevant here, statistically Speaking so this would be the first one. This would be the daily stochastic momentum, oscillator levels of which we have hit a historical level down here on cme specifically, so with that in mind, this level has really only been hit a few times well more than a few times in history, actually, seven to be Exact, not counting our current one and what ive done is ive done an analysis on all of them, taking the averages of the bounce that typically have or the bounce that happens after them, and how long that takes so again, im just marking off this extreme low Level over here and all these green vertical bars represent that and what are we looking at well uh over the period of the past, well of the genesis from when um cme was created, uh on average, we have seen these balances play out for about just under 31 and the time taken once we actually get the cross, the upside was about just over 14 days, so just over two weeks. So this is, you know, still going to take at least until probably middle of july, and that is an average after all, meaning that now theres going to be some that are a little bit on the higher end, some a little bit on the lower end.
So in this case right here we did get the closure on cme um, coming in from friday. That does maintain daily momentum levels to the upside here and as long as bitcoin on cme is closed above twenty thousand one hundred and thirty, two or basically just twenty thousand one hundred fifty lets say uh that will be remaining with upside posturing and likely does present The opportunity for at least a bit of a short term relief bounce now 14 days to you know two weeks might even be a little bit on the upper end of that uh. It doesnt mean that all that you know historical average is gon na is likely to happen. You know right off the bat here, its probably going to take a bit of time if i had to guess its probably going to coincide with the economic data coming out. Next week, so i believe theres a lot of events, i think jay pal speaking, i think theres like cpi ppi, whatever the whatever all these all these acronyms coming out next week, probably going to drive the markets and until then, im actually probably just playing up to Short term timeframe ranges here so with that in mind, just kind of playing around with numbers and taking the averages of this from the actual cross itself would be right here and lets just see uh. What would you know what would basically 15 look like? That brings bitcoin up to basically our current our current daily branch highs at about 23 and a half thousand bucks um.
If we were to play all the way up towards the historical average of that uh, just under 31, actually brings bitcoin back up towards that last cme gap that we had coming in from june june 10th. That is upon closure. So i do want to once again be on the record of saying that, while bitcoin, you know there are indication that that it does trade to the upside here. I do not believe that the low is in um, or at least time wise, based off the analysis that we did yesterday on the macro video. I do think that its still likely to at best at best best best best case scenario, is sideways in a range for at least the rest of summer. Um between about 30 000 high and lets say like 15, 16, 000 or a low bitcoin. You can do something like that. That would be very, very constructive and long term. I would probably be uh quite comfortable, calling it a macro low, but until then uh you know thats in the cards for right now just needs to maintain closures above that region. Otherwise that will be lost and of course, we still have this to be speaking about over here as well. So this was combining the daily mean reversion play based off of the bbwp indicator, which is a volatility indicator coming off of extreme highs right here, and what weve found is is that when we see extremes on on volatility, essentially theres, typically a meme reversion plan.
For that, where price action will you know essentially kind of undo the move a little bit a little bit? That is, for example, ill. Give you this one right here that happened not so long ago in may youll notice that uh we see the bbwp go from extreme low to extreme high. This is what were looking for right here. Obviously we you know, we also had another signal for this one. Over here thats, you know thats. Well, i mean its just not relevant right now. It was was very, very relevant back there thats why we were you know quite bearish in that consolidation, but in this case over here, what im talking about as this signal matures is im talking about the bbwp. Getting a negative slope getting below the moving average, which is the white moving part on this, and then the moving average also get a negative slope. This would be like the full on confirmed signal right here, uh that we saw from middle of may basically but were getting the same thing over here, its slowly maturing. I still think it probably has like another day or two. If i had to guess, maybe starts, you know, edginess or sorry um stepping its way today. But yes, the daily bwp is below the moving average and both of them do have negative slopes. Just want to see a bit more divergence between the two, so maybe like tuesday, wednesday uh. We start to see that evolve a little bit more.
But in this case what weve also noticed based off of the well, basically, all of all of the um uh iterations. Here from the past yeah from the history of cme, you know you will very very quickly notice that there is an average on these medium version plays, which was about 15 and a quarter percent. Now again, i would argue that uh this signal over here like because it was so extreme on the expansion, probably to be a bit more extreme on the mean reversion as well um, so im still looking at im still looking at that as more likely to play. Probably in alignment with what we saw over here so thats, why im also referencing that and theres a lot of variants in these signals as well? I mean just for example, right here we have 35 right, so it could very easily play. You know to the upper end of that uh. The average day is taken about eleven and a half, and the castle movement momentum also has gone in the correct direction 82 of the time. And what do you know as we already identified? It remains the upside as long as bitcoins above 20, 000, 150 or so on a daily closing basis, so thats really really really really really important here and it goes to set, and essentially, that is to say that as long as bitcoin is above that level, i Do look for things to kind of grind their way, uh sideways and up from here, probably up to the daily range highs and then maybe more.
If we do see a closure above there to the next, you know actually quite impressive target in the deep 20s, like maybe even 30. um. So with that in mind, lets now get into the shorter term time frames i think my chart over here here we go and you can see extremely low bbwp on the low term time from like a by hourly and its starting to expand from here. So i do think that were maturing for right now, in the short term time frames getting ready for a move theres a little bit of a crown cross. The upside uh kind of actually yes lets just uh, no theres, no hidden bullish ever or a little bit. But um yeah, fine enough. I just want to see a closure above that 21. What is this three level yeah 21.3 id be looking for a retest of these highs over here, 21, 7, 21, 8 region and then very likely. You know bitcoin does make a move up towards the short term. I think it was like a 12 hour level yeah right around here at about 22, 3 or so probably plays out a short term pullback and then perhaps thats up for a move to the daily range highs. Maybe later this week, um, which would be like your mid 23s or so other than that it should also be on the 12 hour, were actually seeing expansion from extreme lows yet again over here, and i do think it would be worthwhile to maybe reference low term Time frames to cast momentum lets see.
Yeah six hour remains the upside as long as bitcoins, above basically, twenty one thousand or twenty thousand eight. Fifty four hour remains the upside as long as bitcoins above 21, 150 a little bit closer there to be fair. Uh three hour same thing above 21.1 and hourly, is to the upside as long as bitcoins above 21.1, so even the very, very short term timeframes. You could look at 21.1 as, like a you know, a little bit of a cautionary signal. Personally speaking, i dont look at this as like. A failure uh on the short term time frames and would probably bleed into the higher term conference as well until bitcoin comes back down and specifically closes a full hour below 20 600. um. If, if and when that does happen, id be looking for another retest down around here at minimum, so thatd be between about 1905 to basically 20, and maybe maybe nude loaves after that, because there would technically be many droughts of hidden bearish divertings here, which would then Be confirmed same thing on the 12 hour as well, so thats still present, there is still a threat of that move. I just think its less likely, based off the other things right now and contingent upon validations below that levels that we uh that we gave out earlier. So i think, thats a good place to probably leave off on this video. I want to keep this one nice and short and sweet.
I uploaded a video uh just this morning, actually on like just a strategy. I literally just gave a strategy out there uh from one of my upcoming programs, um or my only upcoming program, because i dont have like multiple but Laughter but uh but yeah. You know if you are gon na go and gamble in the old gambling tournament. Uh feel free to use that you know itll actually, hopefully give you safe and give you something resembling a baseline and you can iterate upon that and create other strategies based upon that as well um and optimize it basically. So hopefully that was helpful.