Now, here um, we can see that ada has well pumped a little bit in the last 24 hours really yeah. It has moved up above this key resistance area in a significant move of um. The resistance was here at the wave c high 51.1 cents, so it is not moved above critical resistance le yet and we get to that in a minute. So what has ada actually done or where are we on the ada chart? So overall yeah came down here in a wave three yeah on the 12th of may. It moved up in a wave four in an abc pattern and then moved down impulsively in a wave. One in wave two in wave three, in my opinion we currently are – that is definitely a very likely option in a wave 4 and we are then going to come down in a wave 5 afterwards. This is just what i have to assume at the moment. This is for me the most likely option, looking not looking at correlations because correlations come and go. Even though there is a correlation to bitcoin and for bitcoin, there is a more a potentially more bullish case, no um, but the correlations come and go and we have seen ada moving differently to bitcoin many times, for example, here where bitcoin did not manage to move Up that much ada did yeah and we had many other cases where ada moved differently to bitcoin. So again correlations come and go, and i cannot say just because i count an impulse for bitcoin.

I have to find a way to count an impulse for ada. We want to stick to our system here and want to focus on the rules. So while there is possibly a case to count an impulse up for ada as well um, as i explained in previous videos where we could say – okay, we could say here this way 4 was done here already. This wave 5 was done here yeah. This is at the moment, still not for me the most likely scenario. The reason is still that this wave 5, if i label this s5 um – did not because this would be that way, 5 and that wave 2, this wave 5 would not or did not go below the low of the 12th of may, and this just is something That gives a bit of a headache. It is possible to count it like that, and that would mean that the low of the overall correction was in here. It was in here again it is possible to count it that way in a so called truncated wave arrangement. That means the wave 5 was just shorter, shorter than usual, and we have since then started to move up in an impulsive move up, but it is only possible really in exceptional circumstances, therefore, not a very likely option for me at the moment, the most likely option Is still that we are in this wave 4 in purple, and the wave 5 might still come reason is that, even though price action here was quite strong yesterday, we still have not made it above that yellow target area that i wanted to see.

Price go above yeah. I mentioned that, so i want to get above this 53.9 cent level. If we see significant price action above that which would also involve breaking above this yellow line here, which is the 50 day moving average, which will provide resistance, it will yeah, it always does. The question is: when will it be broken um? What would be a really bullish sign and that would be really bullish if we break it through straight away. So if it indeed doesnt provide any resistance, then we really see that there is a lot of buying power here and then we can consider reconsider this and say all right. Maybe the low was really in here, because then we have the price confirming that this scenario here, where we say the low was already in only makes sense in a scenario where the wave five just couldnt go lower, because there was too much buying pressure um. That means there were a lot of buyers already in the market. The price was pushed up and we just couldnt get that lower low in, but to really make a case for this scenario, we want to see the price action confirm that and, in my opinion, price action would confirm that as soon as we go above 53.9 cents, Yeah, which would again involve a break above the 50 day, moving average here in yellow, which is a dynamic resistance level at the moment, which has been providing resistance pretty much since april 2022.

Here we were briefly above it, but before that you can see weve had resistance here, fake out, um yeah, since you know last year really, since the peak you could even say or since september yeah. So this is a very, very relevant level and if we get above that and possibly even retest it as support that would be very, very bullish. Arguably, as well, ada has a lot to catch up compared to many other cryptos like medic, um, xrp and ethereum, which moved up quite a lot since the low ada hasnt done it and therefore, for me at the moment, the most likely option is still that we Are in this elliott wave triangle until again we break this critical level. Now it cannot be a wave e anymore here, because the wave here came too high, but i mentioned in the previous video. If we go above the wave c high, which was here at 51.1 cents, all i would do for now until we break that critical resistance level is to extend those waves out. What we then can say this was a wave. A b c d is then still to come, and the e to the upside is then also still to come, so its just an extended elliott, wave triangle which might be forming here at the moment and until we break above the wave a high. No sorry, i did tell you 53.9. That is not the case. It needs to go above 54.

7. It is the wave a high we need to get above, because that would invalidate the triangle disregard what i said. It needs to be the 54.7 um cent level that we need to violate to really invalidate this triangle, and possibly we are in a good way here. Yeah i cant deny that, but i want to see evidence in the chart before making assumptions here which are not based on evidence in the chart. We always want to see the evidence in the price action and the elliott wave patterns. Otherwise, everything is just pure speculation. For now we would based on this scenario here. We would now expect very very soon a reaction to the downside, then a bounce to the upside and then a move down yeah, because this has just become an extended triangle. Now, im open to the idea that it could be something more bullish, but until we break this critical resistance level here at 54.7 cents. I just dont see the evidence in the chart and i always want to see the evidence in the chart and from here then yeah. Then we can certainly move up higher with the price targets first of all here around. Let me take those out. I think they are not relevant anymore, but here this one 66.9 cent that previous swing high um 68.7 – that significant swing high – i mean as soon as we are above the 50 day moving average. I think that will take a lot of um downward pressure away because it is just first of all, psychologically important yeah, but its its an important trend filter as well as soon as you get above the 50 day.

Moving average. You are basically in in an uptrend yeah in a medium term, uptrend. Of course we need to see higher highs higher lows as well, but we start to see that now here, okay, so its getting potentially interesting. But this is the level im watching out for absolutely and 54.7 cents watch out for that level. Personally, i would wait now um and if i was trading i would wait until that level gets broken and the 50 day, because we are just below important resistance yeah. I would try not to enter a long trade until we break here above this 50 day moving average, because it will just provide resistance, um, okay, so thats my view about ada at the moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTRDgEB_zSI