MAJOR Bitcoin BUY Signals Flashing! (My Warning AGAINST Buying Crypto)
Take a holistic overall picture of the markets and, of course, make sure that you smash up the like and subscribe to the channel smash it up to a new all time. High were getting very close to 275 000 subscribers on the channel. So appreciate your support during these somewhat crazy, dead and uncertain times in the market, but in my opinion, probably some of the best times in the market and ill show you why, in todays video say a quick thanks to todays video sponsor as well by bit link In the top of the video description sign up bonuses up to four thousand four hundred and fifty dollars when you use those links down there and theres plenty of other exchange bonuses as well, youve got swift decks for the aussies and bit get down there as well. So lets move across to whats going on in the market. At the moment, stocks slide on wall street, as inflation worries persist. 85 percent of the stocks are down, so this is the benchmark for the s p thats. Why were seeing the prices of the s p? Come down, we can see that overnight down two percent. It got rejected at our gain 50 percent level. So no surprises there for regular viewers that are understanding this gan tool, so were looking at highs and lows getting mid points, and that gives us an idea of where we could expect the market to get rejected at which is really helpful.
If were entering positions, especially for trading and then we look for profit taking levels, so it can tell us in advance. This might be an area that will see some resistance and it could be a good idea to take some profits or in the flip. It might be a good area to enter other positions, whether its long or short, so its just an idea using that tool, and that gives us an idea of whats happening in advance from when this information comes out and the other historic stuff that were seeing in The markets – you know these big headlines about history and a lot of the extreme fear in the market is u.s consumer confidence slipped to its lowest level in 16 months. Now, of course, this came in yesterday, but the main point here is that we just want to see the numbers. The conference board said tuesday, the consumer confidence index slipped to 98.7 in june down from 103.2, essentially its gone down. Second straight monthly decline, the lowest levels. So the main thing is were hearing all the time is everythings bad everythings, bad everythings, bad its got to get worse. Now we looked at yesterday some of the biggest google search trend, words for bitcoin being bitcoin bottom were seeing that for recession as well. Just looking at five years here, because we have had some big uh recession, talk in the past, look at the search trend the previous week, so the last two two weeks ago we had the highest search volume for the word recession.
Now weve come off that quite a lot, if were looking at a five year, chart which ill leave on just for for now the second previous highest time for that or that the highest time in the last five years was at the covert crash low. So, looking at historic words here, stuff that the masses are looking at, they believe were going into a recession. They believe the worst is still to come, and i vastly disagree with the worst is still to come. Weve talked about this. The feeling will possibly be the worst to come, but in terms of the losses, it doesnt take a genius to open up a chart and see that the current losses are the worst that we have had. So anything that happens from this point down is not that big of a deal in terms of a percentage drop. I know its going to hurt a lot of people. The portfolios are going to be down from if you bought bitcoin at 21 000, and maybe we go to worst case 11 or 12 000. Its still going to be a 40 drop and thats going to hurt a lot of people, but from the tops where the majority of retail bought in between that fifty and seventy thousand dollars. Just choosing any point up here: theyre theyre down now about seventy percent. So if that drops a little bit further thats going to be down 80 percent and that historically is a pretty reasonable area for bitcoin now weve looked at for for a low on bitcoin weve looked at in the past that i believe my opinion.
Of course, here on the channel is that were in a bottom range now, whether that low comes in at twelve thousand fourteen thousand fourteen and a half here, sixteen thousand or if seventeen and a half thousand on bitcoin is the low. Personally, it doesnt really matter. Think of it in the flip, the flip is uh, the the top end selling out for profits. If you sold out at 46 000. sure the absolute peak was 69 and you could have said, i should have just sold at 69.. You have no way of knowing, because at the time everyone was saying its going to 100, its going to 250., the biggest and brightest minds in technology. Your cathy axe, kathy wood of arc invests and your other big names that have billions of dollars are talking about. 250, 500. 000. Bitcoin. Now the same thing is happening to the downside. We have talks from some of the the most bearish people of saying ten thousand three thousand eight thousand dollar bitcoin. So i think the same thing is happening to the flip side again, so history shows us that doesnt matter, if youre selling somewhere near the top youre, probably going to be better off in the longer term. This is for bitcoin, of course, because we know overall, some of the other markets do trend up like the traditional markets trend up over time, so you just have to hold in there and wait so either option to me its not about being right or wrong its About what suits you and your portfolio did you want to sell the top, or did you want to buy it 50 grand and then hold for the next 5 or 10 years, no ones right or wrong its just whatever suits you me personally.
I prefer to sell these because of the drawdowns being so great. The drawdown just means from the high to the low in the cycle, and the previous cycle was an 84 drop high to low. Now i dont really want to be stuck in those for my cryptocurrencies. My altcoin positions thats the first piece of historic info that were looking at just these google search trends, uh recession at near all time highs for this last five years. If we go back to 2004 to present id still say covet is probably one of the highest. It was pretty much the highest level we had for recession and if we take a big enough look, then the market is still going up, but going down to a shorter time frame, we can see that were now trending down from the word recession. So these are some of the highest levels in history, even more so than the gfc as well, so in terms of the lows were probably getting somewhere very, very close to it now. The other thing i want to look at for the historicness of these buy signals for bitcoin is looking at uh this here, looking at glass nodes and some of the data in terms of the moving average, where the price is on bitcoin and the price actually falling Below the 0.5 of the mayor, multiple an exceedingly rare occasion that hasnt happened since 2015., now being honest with you here, i dont use the maya, multiple i use my own analysis.
I use gan analysis to give me what you know give me my signals of what i want to do with my trading and investing, but you can see that a lot of these other indicators and signals are all pointing to a similar thing. These are at historic, low levels, some of the lowest that theyve seen in their history. If not, you know, moving towards that lowest period, so take a look at bitcoin, throw on the 200 weekly moving average and were all familiar with that now we should be familiar with it now that we are trading below that at the moment, and so eventually. Well, probably get a pop above the 200 week moving average, and then we start to get the retail fomoing back into the market so from where we currently are. This is the 200 week moving. Average people start to fomo back in because its making headlines again that the market is moving up and this basically suckers in the people who think theyve missed out on the bottom. What markets do is they tend to crush hopes and dreams at both ends of the spectrum, its not me its the markets, i dont control the billions or the trillions of dollars. This is just what they do. We know that weve experienced it from the highs. We will experience it at the lows, so weve got 17.5k as the low at the moment. I think well probably get some suckered uh rallies back in here whether we come back and test this.
The main point is over the next probably half of 2022. This six months, leading into the end of the year well probably have to test. Some of these levels is going to be the 24 25 k, probably around this level up here about that 28k as well. So at some point, itll come back up, sucker people in and then probably crush those hopes and dreams once again have to see where the 200 week moving average ends up. Does it start to trend down a little bit before it heads up again? I think thats going to be important as well moving forward, but historically speaking, bitcoin doesnt tend to spend too much time underneath the 200 week moving average. Sometimes it even just touches the 200 week moving average before it starts to make its move back higher again. So, just taking a look at more data here, going back to the 2015 bear market, you can see that we spent in that first peak underneath the 200 week moving average. This is on a daily. There was only two days under it and then a third day touched it. Then the market went sideways for about eight to ten months, which im expecting this time would probably trend sideways, and by sideways i mean you could run up 50 or 100 percent from those lows you can see. The low is about 180 bucks. It ran up to 320, 315, so theres, quite a big move within that bottom range of the accumulation next bitcoin dumped, and it did spend a few weeks underneath the 200 week moving average and poked ahead above and then came back underneath it before it took off From that point, so its not like it cant do that sort of move again and spend some time underneath the 200 week moving average before it starts moving away, but historically speaking, we dont often get too many days or weeks underneath this level.
So the fact that were weve been underneath the 200 week moving average for some time is something that we havent seen in history for bitcoin and, generally speaking, it is a buy signal if you can be patient over the next 6 to 12 months before the market Starts to head up and move towards those new hires, which of course, in my opinion, i think thats whats going to happen for bitcoin. Now the peak areas people were not saying to sell at the tops a lot of people saying this is going to go further. Just hold it, dont worry, definitely not my opinion and i know regular viewers. You guys have seen that i was very much saying: do not hold alt coins, all coins are going to get wrecked and to the downside i think all coins can still get wrecked further. There is no guarantees, there is no one altcoin that will have this hope and dream that should make it through to the next cycle, and so with that in mind, i rather take the precautionary measures and not lose too much money and not buy into altcoins. Until we see some sort of bottom pattern forming for bitcoin bitcoin then starts to take off to show that theres some strength it signals to the market. There might be some time left in this. We might have more smart money coming into the play and then those all coins start to move. Now with that, i am not going to buy the lows, but i will get the breakouts and i will make profits that i can then put into other assets.
Bitcoin real estate, maybe stock portfolios, but my primary two are bitcoin and real estate thats. What i want to put the profits into so with that in mind, thats, why im looking at this market right now, the recession is looking like it may or may not come it doesnt really matter, because the worst of the drops in the markets in the traditional Markets in bitcoin has probably already happened. I cant see these markets going down much further in terms of a percentage from what they have already done. So in the case of the s p its down 25, if it was to do 50 percent from that high. That would take it to a price of 23 or 2400 points. That is almost all the way back to the previous major crash, which was the covered low. Personally, i dont see that happening to the market just yet. I think we still have another section of this bull market to go. This is looking very healthy in a macro sense for a pullback and im very excited throughout 2022, as a buying opportunity. As for the market, sentiment for bitcoin were seeing it rise up a little bit today. These might not be in our buying ranges for much longer were at 13 on the extr on the fear and greed index, giving us an extreme fear reading. As for the price, yesterday, it went down so we had an extreme fear of 10, but the index went up.
You can see this little bounce right here from 10 to 13., the price of bitcoin went down normally when we see the price of bitcoin go down. The fear remains the same or gets a little bit lower now were seeing a divergence between the index of what people are actually feeling and the price of bitcoin so in the short term, well have to see whether we can at least start to climb our way Out of this with the fear right, uh, lessening going towards greed rather than more extreme fear whether this gives us a support level at 19800 for btc try to test some of these higher levels, sucker in some more buyers. And then this is the long term buyers and then dump on them again. This is over the course of probably, i think, the next few weeks to a few months, while this market tries to figure out whether 17 is the low or we go lower. As for cryptos altcoins, seoul has had another day down its getting close to one of the areas that i liked as a support level. It was about 33 dollars because you can see thats on our swing here so for solana. It has had several more days down than what weve seen in the past. It got rejected at that 50 percent level, 42 bucks and so for the move forward. We need to see some support come in as always, and then another entry setup position to go long again into that 50 to take out that 50 and start to head higher or if we see a rejection at the 50 for another shorting opportunity.
So thats for solana for ada same sort of thing, its getting very close to the next lows again here at around 45 cents, its had a few more days down than it has in the past. So this is looking more like its wanting to train towards the downside, its pretty obvious there. The main thing to look at is what happens from this bounce. Do we get rejected again at around 50 52 cents and start to trend lower, giving us a lower top and then potentially a lower bottom over this way, or are we going to start to move up put in a higher low to then break out thats going To be the key indicators here for a lot of the cryptos, whether they can continue on where the bitcoin signals that its ready to go up again, like we just looked at with the sentiment it is lessening so were not as fearful with a few points. Less fearful and bitcoin trying to move up, which then gives us the opportunity for some of these altcoins to just go on that little bit more of a run, maybe have a little bit more profits in those trades and then see how the market responds, or they Get rejected again at some of these higher prices, which is still significantly further away at 40 or 50 in some cases, smash up the likes subscribe to the channel 30 of you not subscribed yet so make sure you do that down below and, of course, check out The links to buy a bit trading is on at the moment, world series are trading join us over.