So there are a few things that we now need need to talk about. So we had here a couple of scenarios on the chart that i made you aware of, and so you know you should actually know what whats happening now um or which scenario becomes now live so from an elite wave point of view. We moved up here um, and this is the bullish wave count. There is a bearish wave count showed you that in the last couple of videos quite a few times in this scenario, here we moved up in a wave one. We came down in a wave two. We moved up or we are moving up in a wave three here in purple in the wave three. There are obviously sub waves here, wave one, a wave two down the wave three should have come now. Didnt come yeah. Bitcoin did not manage to get above this 21.3 to 21.7 k level now whats. What is now going on here? So in the previous video we talked about that this um. So i gave you here this abc correction yeah as possible wave count in a wave 2 here, based on the assumption that this wave, one in purple was complete. This wave two in purple was complete the wave three in purple currently ongoing here and that we just have another one, two setup: hmm now it looked like it was complete yeah or it could have been complete. But i told you there are two key levels.

We need to get above first important level. Is this one here that we didnt even reach? So from that point of view, it was in no way confirmed that the wave c had completed. We have now to say that um we could still be in this scenario. Yeah as i and i gave you the next support level for this, and we can just have a look oops and have a look at these fibonacci retracement levels, and i gave you as next support level, should we lose to 61.8. I gave you here the area around the wave too low, yeah so close to the 78.6 trip level. This one is here at around 20.2 k yeah, and we did pretty much reach that already. So this is the next support level from here now the price has a next chance to turn around, but i i think i said to you in the previous video: should we now go below the 61.8 percent fib level which we have done now. In my opinion, what will get more likely, then, is not this scenario anymore, which means that the other scenario gets more likely in which we have completed the wave one in purple. Then we came down in. Let me show you in a wave, a were moving up in a wave b complete and the wave c is unfolding probably now yeah, and this is what we can now make work better based on the wave count, and i always try to show you the scenario That adheres best to the elliott wave principles.

In my opinion, it is now this one and we can also make that work from a wave count point of view, so what im gon na do now im gon na i have to take. Let me just think, because i want to make it work, you know um. I have to take this count out, of course, yeah that wave one never started all of this never started so that means the wave 2 here is also not finished. It will be here. Yeah this didnt look like that, and this was a continues to be one two, three four five thats all fine yeah, and that we can make work very well. That means what weve done here is weve come down in a large wave a we have moved up in a wave b and we are now moving down the wave c now, if you think about why is there a five wave move? Well, that is purely because this wave b again consists of an a b c so within this just to show you that, within the wave b, you have a wave a which is a five wave move, a wave b down and a wave c to the upside. Okay, so um, so this is then what we would expect now as next likely option, and we can revisit again those fibonacci retracement levels in the yellow target area, just to double check if the yellow target area is still likely. So in this scenario, what would now be likely yeah? It would be this area here, starting at the 50 fibonacci retracement level, which is here around 19.

6 k. Now this is certainly a realistic. Another very likely option would be the 19.1 k level. The 61.8 percent flip level, and maybe even the 18.4 k level, and i also have to tell you very clearly – should we go really significantly below that 18.4 k level. I think then we have to just go with a bearish wave count because bitcoin is struggling. Yeah. Absolutely it is struggling um. We can certainly count this as impulse here still as a wave one, but then, based on this we have to we have to say you know, weve really only based on this wave count seen a wave one here so far this year is a wave two and The wave three has never started yet so, while there is, of course, in this scenario, still a chance to break out, we are still very early this. This move down now has basically thrown us back a wave count yeah or we have to go to the higher level wave count, which means um. The next wave that looked like it had started already just never started, and this just gives you the orientation now where we are on the chart. That means we have a first impulse up, but it is just still in the wave 2. Currently and again i told you all the time that unless we go above the 23.3k level, there is still significant downside potential. So this this is a scenario i had on the chart already.

But again, i also have to say to you again and remind you what i said before. There is still significant downside potential until we break above that level, and it could very well be – and that is what we dont know at the moment, because we have really seen only a wave 1 and maybe a wave 2 here. This could all still be a corrective wave, as i showed you now in in other videos, already um and ive mentioned that here throughout. Let me just try to find that other chart here again here yeah only yesterday. I believe i showed you that um, that in the bearish wave count weve come down here in wave three on the 18th of june were now moving up here in a wave four, we already have a three wave move complete and we could now start the impulse Down this is the bearish move and, in my opinion this will get much more likely. This bearish move. If we move below that yellow target area here, so between 18.4 k, which doesnt mean it couldnt, still reverse below it yeah, but if it really goes lower, it will just get less likely. So this is the highest likelihood of a turnaround for this current wave 2. and if we dont turn around in this yellow area, then we are probably gon na see lower lows for bitcoin yeah. So this is where we currently are, and we just have to see.

Um how this is going to develop, we are, if we are in an uptrend yeah, just to continue to repeat that. If we are in an uptrend, we are still very early, and if we are not in an uptrend, then we are probably gon na see a lower low yeah, and this is just a corrective wave up. Um and again until we break above this key resistance area. That ive had now on the chart for probably a couple of weeks or so um that there is just still downside risk, yeah or significant downside risk so um. Where does it leave us well? For now we can assume that we will turn around in this yellow area, but again it is uncertain because we are still only in the very early stages here of a possible uptrend and bitcoin is struggling here. Absolutely it is struggling here, um wave one up. Absolutely fine, two down fine as well thats here or sorry, um wave a down fine wave b up fine as well, but we couldnt go through here yeah, so not even through that resistance area. Bitcoin could break um. Now im remaining of my view. I expect a rally, i expect a rally but, as i said to you, i cant tell you if that really will happen now or if that rally will happen after another lower low, because we are just in this possible turnaround space. You know we are in this turnaround space and there is still a lot of uncertainty for now.

We are following this scenario here, a one, a two, because this is for me the next likely scenario yeah. It has not been invalidated yet and we need to. We need to see how we are doing how we are going to do in this yellow target area and maybe to complete this here um this wave count in the wave c. Where are we currently with that? So we have, in my opinion, completed down here wave one. This is a five wave move. We then moved up in a wave two. We now wait for the wave three in my opinion here. Then there will be a wave four and a wave five to the downside. So i think this year also how strongly it is coming down, looks smells and tastes like a wave three in this wave c. Okay, so this is where we are and from a short term point of view, one scenario: well, it hasnt been the other. The first scenario i showed you, it hasnt been invalidated, but it just gets less likely, which is why ive now taken it out. Um so were focusing on this one now and what you just need to understand on the lower levels. Yeah i mean were look really doing here, lower level wave, counting nearly micro, counting yeah. This is just always very fragile. These scenarios move around very often because there are just so many possibilities. The higher you go on the wave um, the how the higher you go on the time frame, the less often these will get changed so, for example, ive never changed my main scenario yeah so from november.

Until today i have never changed my scenario: the higher level. One, the lower levels were level ones yeah, they changed. They transform, of course, as neta changes and as we always have to adjust to the latest price developments and just our strategies. Okay, that is my view about bitcoin.