Bitcoin BTC Price News Today – Technical Analysis and Elliott Wave Analysis and Price Prediction!
But we have broken out about above a few key levels that i mentioned in the previous video that were of relevance. So in the previous video i gave you the view that here we were obviously still sort of in this range here yeah – and i told you that this here this high, this swing high at around 20 point yeah in that range, around 20.6 k is of relevance Because if we bounce off see a bearish reaction, then it is quite likely that wave 2 in green was never finished, so here a b c absolutely possible in this scenario that would have then the c wave would have um completed the wave 2.. However, i also told you if we make a higher high above the wave 1 high, that would bolster the bullish scenario that we have on the chart here. Of course, theres also a bearish scenario, and we want to see now a sustained move to the upside. It is too early to be super bullish, but its gaining and probability yeah. We are moving step by step into the desired direction and uh. What im looking at now is um yeah, just a view of just the expectation that we are now in this um. Basically, in this third wave here in green and there we want to see this wave 3 to be yeah working in five waves. Basically, so let me show you so weve got here from that low.
Obviously, at 17.6 k we moved up in a wave one yeah moving down in an a then a b and a c yeah completing this wave, two theres a couple of possibilities. How you can count this um and it doesnt make a great difference. But now, given that weve actually moved above this wave, one high at 20.9 k makes again this scenario that i had on the chart anyway, i havent played around with it more likely. There was this other possibility that we set here wave one here, and all of this is the wave one again in the in the entire scenario it wouldnt have made much of a difference. Um. The scenario would have been just to show you because ive seen that a few times um wave one to the upside and then we would have seen here an a a b to the upside, and the c would have still happened to the downside. Now, in this scenario, yeah, you would have wanted to stay below wave b now weve broken above that wave b. So this cant be wave b anymore um and i never claimed it would be a wave b. But this would have been the sort of alternative bullish scenario that would have still been possible now, given the fact that weve broken out to the upside uh, we can dismiss this scenario, given that the scenario had on the charity anyway was what seems to be the More the correct one: okay, so uh in the bullish in the bullish count um.
So here we then move down in wave two, and here we have built a series of one twos yeah. This can either be super bullish or is a warning sign, because if we have too many one twos, it gets a bit um unrealistic. I would say: okay because you have too many overlaps, but for now we are following this: okay and weve, broken out above that 20.9 k. Important is now that we hold this structural support, but for now we are moving higher and what ill be looking for now is to finish off wave three here in five waves. And if we want to look in a little bit more detail at the wave count of the wave three um and again we get into micro counting here, and these are often moves that get invalidated often. But what is the most likely outcome, in my opinion that this was a wave one diagonal again leading diagonal, then wave two here to the downside and that we are now in this third wave that would be confirmed by this strong move to the upside. Then there will be a four down and the five up that would complete this wave three, and so we are moving up slowly and slowly and slowly. That would be great and with this wave three, we would then also move here into this resistance area, and here is where the basically the the uh the decision for the next few days, and maybe even weeks will follow.
Do we break above this resistance box between 21.4 and 21.7? K would be important to do so. Of course, it would be important to do so. What would be the target for this wave 3 now lets. Take a look: the white one im talking about you know wed be looking at a 21 700, so exactly the resistance area, the upper resistance area of the box. This is what were looking at here now: yeah um amazing, looking forward to it yeah looking really good um, and it shows its worth to follow this bullish scenario which ive been following. It still is not my primary expectation, given that we have not broken structural resistance here, but ive always told you. We need to allow for that possibility that the low is already in a lot of people still strongly expect. Lower prices do not want to talk about already to the upside im, telling you we at least need to allow for the possibility, and while im talking, we are actually getting here to the close to the 21k level. Actually, we were already slightly above it um today. Already so its looking good um, we need to be careful not to get too bullish, yeah um, but were following this and if were following this, the road map would be moving up here in five waves to complete green wave. Three then there will be a green wave four and the green wave five. Only then we will complete red wave three.
Then there will be a red wave 4 and the red wave 5., and so we are moving higher and higher yeah im. Gon na add the puzzle pieces together here as we move and to give you the best possible orientation of where we are here in the crypto market and scenario. One more important thing happened here in the bearish scenario. We have actually invalidated one of the options with this yellow wave 2. We have moved now above the red wave 2 which invalidated that scenario, which is good for every bull, because it has just invalidated one possible bearish scenario. It is not to be considered bullish yet, as i said in the previous video, if this move up goes really higher than the 20.9 k level, we dont. We need to be careful, its not bullish necessarily, but we can take that yellow wave count out for now. Yeah um because it has invalidated it yeah, because you cannot. That was another one, two with the one two with it wave two. You cannot go higher than the beginning of the wave one. So what we are doing here is we have this now, where we came down in a one and moved up in in a two um. So basically, that wave two is not yet finished, but if we take out 21.9 k, then even this will be invalidated um. But from here in the bearish wave count we would expect a reversal to the downside soon.
We have now reached the 78.6 retracement level. So this is an ideal retracement level for the wave 2.. Its a level i mentioned in the previous video could even go a bit higher, but definitely not higher than 21.9 k even above 21.5. It will be unrealistic and then we would be in favor more of the bullish scenario here, but at the moment we still need to be careful overall yeah from a higher higher level point of view. My primary expectation will remain here that we will have to make a lower low until we break above the 23.3k level. I just cant tell you anything else, um until then, because i dont have enough evidence yet. But of course i would like to see here bullish, breakout and, of course, im considering this very close, then im cool, of course, im buying bitcoin as um as you know, as the channel members know anyway um. So for me, its an accumulation, phase and im looking forward here to to a bullish, breakout im looking forward to it yeah if it happens or not and uh. If the bullish scenario is going to play out or not – i dont know nobody knows at the moment, because we are in this possible turn around space here at the moment: yeah um, but um. You know we reached the target on the downside, which is amazing, so we need to give consideration for this bullish breakout so ill. Keep you updated if bitcoin makes any more crazy moves today.
I might add another update later because its starting to get interesting um, but overall yeah, hopefully that update video was useful.