The market is flipping right now from an inflation narrative to a recession. Narrative inflations not going to be a problem over the next few months were seeing commodities. Everything come off so were going to look at that were going to like how that affects bitcoin as well. Bitcoin trades like the nasdaq, which is long duration, right so um, small profits or no profits in comparison to your valuation and so very uh. Receptive to changes in interest rates, bitcoin is trading like that now and so its absolutely vital to know whats happening to interest rates and the rate of change of those interest rates and how thats going to affect bitcoin were going into a different market right now. So what over the last six nine months when youve seen this, you know huge move down, weve been in an environment where real interest rates uh have been rising significantly in terms of percentage terms, going from zero up to three and a half percent for the ten Year in the states, okay, so a very hawkish tightening environment thats not happening anymore. The market is showing us that they actually think the fed should come back and real interest rates should come off because inflation is coming down because theres a recession. So this is right in the middle of that flip um. This is why its important bitcoin has been trading just like the nasdaq, which is very you know, sensitive to rises and falls in interest rates, rises in interest rates, make borrowing um more expensive and that long direct that cash that long duration, cash, those income streams, get Um, you know taken down a lot and you know: bitcoin has come off now.

Bitcoin has come off because of that and then youve had um. You know factors like celsius, voyager voyager, just blew up today, so theyve gone bankrupt, filed for bankruptcy. Today, didnt move the market, so what i want to know is how much of this is priced in and are we flipping into an easier rate environment that would actually be fairly um much, i wouldnt say bullish, but definitely not as bearish as previous times. So come off uh the price, but then weve had these specific blow ups, which is terra luna celsius because of that 3ac and these other ones forcing the price lower, as you can see, is there anything left? One thing that may be left is celsius network, officially filing for bankruptcy, which they havent done. Yet. On that note, this is their wrapped bitcoin vault. This was hundreds of millions outstanding. This was the thing that i think was in the 20s in terms of a liquidation price, theyve sold theyve sold down the debt, you know paid off the debt again and again and again and now the liquidation price after todays payoff is 2 700.. So, for all intents and purposes they are not getting liquidated. Unless something outrageous happens, they do still have um 41 million dollars. You can see down here 41 million dollars of debt compared to what that was. This is nothing you can see the history right here. They did pay theyve been paying off. You can see it right here july, 5th july, 4th july 3rd, paying off debt over and over again 50 million 64 million paid off, so they are paying off this debt um from you know, obviously, parts of their business that maybe um borrowers have been paying back Or whatever so theyve been paying down this debt, this eases the bitcoin market, and so is there going to be another? You know announcement of some bankruptcy that could potentially sell us off again.

Absolutely it could were in a bear market, and so these bits of news are not positive. Lets be fair, however, how much of this is priced in already um? Obviously we dont know, but you can see we are trying to consolidate here around this uh 20. 000 level, which is obviously just a humans trading level and around a round number. We have to look about whats happening in the next six months with rates, because this is going to affect the price of bitcoin. If you are a trader ill leave the link to buy a bit in the description they give deposit bonuses uh if you sign up so if you deposit onto their platform theyll, give you up to four thousand dollars as a deposit bonus in your trading account only In your futures account, though, so, if you trade um, you put some crypto affiliate on there theyll give you that deposit bonus up to four thousand dollars. What i want to look at, though, is rates, is bitcoin going to trade along with rates, or is it going to trade along with the nasdaq, which is also selling off, because that nasdaq index has a lot of companies in there that are just going to earn Way less money and start bringing down their profits, expectations, bitcoin isnt a company, and so it shouldnt trade along with those. But it is because of correlations with trading and everything like that. The important thing for bitcoin is: if its trading, along with rates, you can see that after a you know a period to uh for the end of last year, when the fed flipped and got hawkish, the rate environment has been outrageous.

This rise in interest rates. You know has completely killed the stock market and risk assets, but you can just see it looks like weve topped the reason why is because of other um commodity prices coming down? This were in a recession right now, its an official technical recession uh. It feels like a recession, but you can see that over the past few weeks, uh rates have come down. You know almost 15 percent, so that is a hugely volatile move for for um for bonds like this is insane whats going on right now you you cant trade, these markets, theyre so volatile. So a 15 move in the us 30 year and were actually getting down to the us 30 at 3 right now, so this is really important for um. You know the economy and the easing or the tightening or the loosening of uh conditions for the economy. Well, look at the u.s tenure as well just to give us a better idea, its the exact same picture, but actually, even worse. Now the us tenure is shorter, dated meaning its going to reflect the recession and the the fall in rates from that recession that the feds going to have to do even more. So you can see that really really clearly here, uh the u.s 10 year down 22. In a month from that top, this is this is hugely volatile, uh and obviously were seeing now. The past six months, weve seen bitcoin come down from those highs.

Youve had one of the most hawkish environments ever going from basically zero interest rates over what six months going up to three percent now you might think. Well, three percent isnt a lot, but if you just do the relative change right, so the relative change in rates has been 200 percent. This is unreal, so that is what has fallen. You know made markets fall off, but now were coming down again because of all of these real figures that are showing a huge deflationary environment because of the recession, just to prove that i have some commodity prices, and this tells you the recession is here right. So we have copper, fallen off a cliff. This move down here back to pre invasion highs, so we are not in inflationary environment in copper. Lets go over to wheat futures again from the highs just absolutely falling off a cliff okay. There is no inflation in these prices this over the next few months is going to feed into prices and inflation and inflation is not going to be an issue anymore: corn, yeah, corn, just the same right, so inflation of food and weve got here the euro, which Is just an absolute basket case now? The problem here for the world is that commodities are traded in dollars. The dollar is super strong right now, and so europe is going to be facing huge inflation, which is going to make the recession much worse and other countries that you know have to exchange for dollars and then buy those commodities.

Is that positive for bitcoin, or not? The dow, the s p and the nasdaq all pointing higher this morning. Why is that? Maybe they just are looking around and saying: weve actually been in a recession, its been here and then potentially looking forward were looking at an easing of policy as crazy as it sounds because weve been talking about tightening of policy for what six seven months it it Worked but its not just interest rates that tighten the economy and demand and crash demand, its oil prices, oil crushes demand in the rest of the economy, because everythings so expensive people just give up and theyre fed up paying for anything and so that recession comes now. What happens central banks have to step in now and start actually easing, or at least trying to lower rates and being a little bit more loose in their policy. Now, if they do that, you can see that actually, even though recession is here that the stock market possibly can at least find a bottom or even just get a relief here, why well, one of them is short, covering people that went short when the fed, flipped And now thinking you know what things are changing things are flipping and i might want to get out of the market here, so they might just be covering their shorts. Great trade that was were going into a new regime. Right now absolutely are people going along the market here i dont think so, because theres still a lot of downgrades for income and earnings from these stocks to come out and so its going to be a real tough picture for stocks um.

But when looking at bitcoin, what youre really looking at is you know what our rate expectations and what were seeing here is. Yes, rates are coming up, but you can see they start coming off again. Um 2023 towards the end of this year, were only you know. Six months away from that, and so when traders are looking out theyre thinking that is relatively more hawkish, a relatively more dubbish and easier environment, because this recession has to be dealt with then um, so yeah, a really interesting environment right here for btc and what youre Seeing for btc potentially is two things: firstly is a local bottom to the absolute carnage that has occurred in the lending sector right and the. The second thing is, you know: lower rates is good for btc and thats. Why? You know lower rates, plus the debasement of debt. Saurus move up in the first place, so really interesting for btc very difficult to trade, but i think um, like i said in this video says we are flipping right here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyqapi7v9BE