How Long Will This Bear Market Last In Crypto?
A little bit talk about recessions, how long those usually last when we can expect a rebound in bitcoin and the entire crypto market, and what factors to consider when were talking about the overall markets were going to jump into all of that in this video ill. Be right back dont go anywhere hit that, like button too ill, be right back Music, all right! So in 2018 the bear market in crypto lasted 361 days, but the bear market back in 2014 before 2018 lasted 633 days, so youre seeing the bear markets last for shorter time periods again. 2014 over. You know almost two years right, whereas 2018 closer to one year. Okay, now will this bear market last a full year or so thats? The big question: are we still in these situations where we have the four year cycles, the crypto winters, i think its changing its evolving theres, more uh. There are more people in crypto now right. I think its changing the bitcoin having uh is still set for 2024, which usually is very good for the bitcoin price. But i think what i want to see first is sideways action consolidation. We have not gotten that yet right. We have not gotten that sideways action. Just yet i was looking at polygon earlier im gon na go to the global crypto market cap here bitcoin right now, trading at 19.4. We did see a pop in the price yesterday, all the way to 20 400 uh, and it has come way back down since then and were basically capitulating right now in the overall cryptocurrency market.
You could see it here on the one month for bitcoin, but bitcoin consolidated that 30k for a long period of time now consolidating around 20k. A lot of people expect it to go back down to about 15 16k and then bounce from there, but everybodys making their predictions, but lets look at bear markets across crypto history in the us stock market, for example, bear markets usually last about nine months now. Of course, the us stock market has matured a lot over the decades right. That doesnt mean things shift automatically to a bull market. However, because usually we get sideways action, it gets choppy for a little while before we start really moving upwards, so investments in projects that survive this in the cryptocurrency side of things will end up stronger. They end up taking market share when things turn around, so your bitcoins, your ethereums, your top alt coins really have a chance to be even stronger when we do come back its not just opium, its true weak players, fold and the strong. The builders claim those customers for their own were already seeing it happen on the centralized exchange side and uh. You know, mergers and acquisitions will become a huge. A much much much bigger part of cryptocurrency were not going to have all the micro caps that we have today uh now one of the things uh, the one big factor number one big factor right now: driving prices down across all markets are global macroeconomic forces, and These are forces that i talk about quite often here on the channel inflation uh.
They didnt talk about recession, but recession, threats, multi country, oh multi, country, recession. There you go right there, uh recessions across the world right uh looming or even some place was already in them right possible economic depression, uh, which comes after a recession if it gets that bad huge increase in money, supply and war happening right now. These are all things were dealing with right now, so its not just crypto its, not just the stock market. Everything gets affected by these global macroeconomic forces. We cant forecast when the war will be over. We hope its very soon. We cant forecast exactly when inflation will start to come down a lot of people think it could get back to about three to four percent by the end of the year. I think thats, what a lot of peoples expectations are. That would be good if it does uh but thats what we want to see by the end of the year now the bitcoin macro view heres something to consider – and this is a positive – there are more bitcoin addresses now than ever. Okay and more wallets equals more adoption, even if these wallets are only holding small amounts of bitcoin. There are now 1 billion bitcoin addresses out there, and that number has continued to grow during this bear market. More people see this as an opportunity which shows us that more and more people are looking at cryptocurrency as a viable investment micro strategy, for example, uh not a micro player by any uh by any stretch of the imagination, theyve purchased an additional 480 bitcoins for 10 Million at an average price of 20 817 per bitcoin and uh.
Currently as of uh late june, here microstrategy holds almost 130 000 bitcoins acquired for just under 4 billion at an average price of 30 664 dollars per bitcoin. So even michael saylor is down in his investment, so dont feel bad, but hes still buying. So that tells us that even the big players and dont forget uh. Even the big players are down dont forget. There are huge, huge players in bitcoin in crypto right, mark cubans of the world, jack dorseys of the world, elon musks of the world. That gives me investor confidence. I dont know what it does to you. I would hope you know in looking at these really smart and wealthy individuals and they see bitcoin as a viable option. Uh raul paul is another one one of my favorites. He too is buying right. So the other thing that bitcoin has going for its more decentralized than ever, so no one miner dominates the bitcoin mining space right now. This is a positive within the bear market. Okay, so if we scroll on down uh one more point that i wanted to make here – and it kind of just you know, puts a bow on this. No one really knows when this thing will bottom out, okay, but we are going off of historical factors. I think, personally, i think, were gon na have uh a bear market for the next two to three months, and then things will get choppy late this year and i think we break out of this sometime in 2023.
. That is what im looking at uh at least thats my philosophy or thesis on it right now, but its just a prediction: its just based off things that ive read people ive talked to and uh thats kind of where im at with, where crypto is and again Its not a crypto specific issue, its global macroeconomic factors, driving prices down in all sectors, uh stock market in all markets, stock market included right so thats. What im looking at right now, overall in terms of how long this will last, i think well get choppy later. This year and eventually come out of it in 2023 and i think, were gon na, have a bullish end of 2023 and a really bullish start to 2024. thats. What im looking at right now, but things can change, be locked into the channel if they do also our newsletter just out hot off the press released it this morning, the july 4th edition come on over and check it out, patreon link down below in the description. Twenty dollars per month get you in cancelled any time. If youve got questions about taxes, wallets tech, support, weve got you covered and come and join our great private community today for just 20 per month. Thank you so much for popping in.