Caution: Bitcoin Crash Exposes FINAL Capitulation for Crypto (Cycle Analysis)
In the markets, traditional markets, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies tying this all together, as i feel and see on the charts, a final capitulation forming and thats going to give us a price range target and a time range target. A lot of people focus on time price. But time is really one of the most important areas, so we can start to build a position for our portfolios and not get wrecked and destroyed by the dollar cost averaging calls that have happened in a bear market all the way down all right. So if you want to stay involved and understand how that works, make sure youve subscribed to the channel with the bell notification, icon and, of course, like the content lets get two out of ten people liking. The content here normally its a ten percenter lets, get those stats up. First things: first, we had the speech yesterday, so jackson hole symposium, uh final day here in the meeting and everything that has been said there isnt really that much of a shock. Yes, the prices did go down, we had a few percentage drop, but overall, this really isnt the reason that the markets have been falling. The markets have been waiting to see what had been said, but the trend was already down. We follow this. We track this and we understand that this is part and parcel of the game. You can see that the markets had peaked out, which we looked at in the previous videos here for the last two weeks, looking for a top to come in based on time cycles.
So go back check these videos out ill leave. A link to this at the end of this video make or break was a good one time to sell no chance and then also volatility trap as well, so theyre. The videos that were looking at in terms of time lengths to give us an idea of when these time frames and price clusters come together for rejections on the market, so we had that. Of course, market is now trending down according to our gan swing indicator, thats. What this yellow line is – and we had the low come in just a few days ago, lower than the previous low and we tried to climb back to fill a gap. This is weakness before the news events and like we talked about. If something is weak, if the market is weak, just a little bit of bad news is easier to push the market over and thats what we got yesterday weve got a nice little rollover. However, on the big picture we want to look at the macro time frame here were still holding up reasonably well. My danger level, which has remained here since the peak in november of last year, coming up near 12 months now, is under 8 900 points in the nasdaq. So we have to understand the nasdaq. So we can get a clear review for cryptocurrencies because its all involved in the tech space theyre all pretty heavily aligned at this point in terms of how they are moving.
It may not be forever, but for now thats what the market is telling us s p similar sort of move here for both these markets weve had an over balance in price to the upside in price and in time, which is a macro bullish picture. This doesnt mean that it the low is in and that the market is about to take off to new all time highs, but it does mean that we are getting a sway from the bears to the bulls, but this is like a changing tire. The tide just doesnt drop and then spring back out. You get a change in the tide and then we move to the other side. So if youre new to these sorts of understandings around market cycles, this is how they play out. So we have to understand this when were looking at a macro time frame and they work on a micro as well. The reason why its important to understand this is because, if we are investing or trading in the market, this is going to give us an edge on everyone else, so that we can position ourselves for our portfolios, whether its a long term position or a shorter term Position if we are trading so today were looking at the 50 levels time and we, the weeks for the time frames, bitcoin macro, buy signal which ill do another. Video follow up. Weve covered this on the channel those buy areas and were coming up to one of those very soon for for bitcoin and then, of course, my micro macro and the crypto outlook.
As a recap for the traditional markets, s p, 500. Nasdaq, nothing is out of the ordinary for this pattern. After the news announcements thats, the one simple liner here, everything is on track. As for bitcoin, we had the breakdown from our very tight trading range. The volatility did increase as expected. I think a lot of people understand that now that if we are getting a very tight range and then we are expecting uh or waiting on a news announcement, the expectation is that the market can fluctuate quite widely, it wasnt extreme, but we did at least get A break out of this zone and we are now heading towards under 20 000. We did touch under there briefly, but now sitting around twenty thousand two hundred the small short term. Double bottom did fail, so this is out of the question now and that just means were probably going to see further downside. The next support and resistance which we have covered here is around nineteen thousand. This is eighteen and a half to nineteen two, so approximately nineteen thousand is going to be the next level for bitcoin, and i dare say if we do break under this level, i dont think seventeen and a half is going to hold very well, which then sets Us up to further downside and sets us up for the macro picture for btc with our time cycle that weve been looking at for many many months now over six months, and this is something that ive looked at with our members.
Tia members join us for our weekly group calls where you can ask questions about your investing trading based on these cycles for bitcoin for traditional markets and real estate. Theres a ton covered there based on our own personal, investing the macro cycle here is coming very close to the level which weve covered uh just under 20k, and at the moment the zone is probably down to about 11 and a half thousand im, not saying its Going to get there, but this is just zones based on previous cycles, timing and price. The 12 month cycle to the bear market is coming to an end, but we may still have a month to six months to go in this cycle, but well be able to understand where that load comes in based on our wyk off and gain analysis. As it continues to occur so for now, things are looking like they are still on track. As for ethereum, its holding up a little stronger were still above our 50 level. At 14 55 the low came in at 14.70 so far another day and 17 hours to go for the close of the weekly remember were looking at the macro frame here for the bigger picture stuff, not the short term fluctuations. We were very much on the turning point based on our timing cycles for bear market rallies. If this is to break down, if ethers, to break down from about a thousand, then of course were probably going to test the 880 and lower.
So just have that in your plans, just in case im not saying that its going to happen, but just have it there just in case meaning if you want to be investing in either lower prices, have something on the sidelines or something that you can sell to Be able to get into more at lower prices and thats going to be the same for a lot of these cryptocurrencies in terms of the capitulation now. The other key features here of the chart for the eth breakdown is that we still have not reached the bear market downtrend. This could happen leading into the merge, but even if it does happen and were to assume that this is the current low at around 1470 and we get that move up. If we get another rejection, its going to be a shorter range to the upside than what we currently saw leading up into all of the excitement, which means the upside would be getting smaller. So these are a lot of ifs in case we do get there and the excitement returns leading into the merge, but we have to be prepared in case. We see that because people will not new people wont understand that thats going to be a shorter range, meaning theres less momentum and less buying leading into it than what we had previously seen, which in itself is a bearish signal. Speaking of eth, our channel sponsored by bit is giving away a thousand dollars of each its basically a hundred dollars at a 10x leverage that you can use on the platform.
But you can withdraw the hundred dollars if you meet the criteria, basically making that trade can be open and closed within a matter of seconds, but if youre uncomfortable, obviously this isnt for you. But if you are looking for that extra 100 bucks there that you can use on the platform, definitely go and check this out link is in the video description. Lets look at the capitulation now on crypto currencies that we can finally start to put into play. So ethereum bitcoin is going to be a chart that im going to use to understand where were going for ada sol and the other cryptocurrencies for now were looking at this as a potential rejection lower than the previous top five weeks out here and then just checking Out how far the percentage drop was in the entire 2018 bear market now this is btc, so just remember that the top started in 2017 and came out into 2019 next is ada. So final capitulations, these previous bounces, which were talked a lot about being the next bull market, have not eventuated and it looks like we have to give the bias to the downside, based purely on the charts. The trend is still clearly down. The recent macro swings are still clearly down and the next support level is at approximately 43 down to 38 cents. This is for ada. So if we are to break down from here, which were only about 10 or 15 percent away, then the final capitulation, i think, is going to end up somewhere between 12 and 38 cents, its a reasonable range.
But remember this is cryptocurrencies and they do have a pretty decent range. If that is to happen, then we can start to look at our percentage drops from tops, which we know for all. Coins can be anywhere up to 98.99. All the way down to this load gives us a 96 drop relax im, not saying it has to go there. But if we look at these previous tops at about 19 or 20 cents down to 94 percent. And then, if we had say the the previous lows before the market took off at about 28 cents, its about a 90 so its getting closer to where we would typically expect all coins to dump to before they start to accumulate and then take off. So in terms of a price were getting rather close time, the big one here, so we need to look at the btc chart checking out the btc chart. This gives us a ton of information of how much time we potentially have for the lows the btc low came in on december 2018.. Now for these old coins they load about eight months later in august. This is for ada. We dont have too many to work with here that that made it through to the next cycle, but about eight months until it load against its btc value and then before it took off, which was the final low here in december of 2020, you could almost say Its about another year and five, four or five months before it had its final low and then went on its mega bull market.
So there is a lot of time, which is a positive for us here if were still unsure about how to set our positions. What the market is doing next and what we want to do. There is still a lot of time here, even though that there are moves up and down some significant moves up and down which are basically setting the tone for the market and the support and resistance levels before we get the breakout. So this may seem rather bearish. However, the positive the massive positive here is that there is a lot of time on our side until we can figure that the market is ready to take off and it happens in small stages on the way up and then you get bigger and bigger. Breakouts happens early, but then it fails. So it gives us many signals in order to get in now. If we look further to where we are now, we havent had that big push up against the btc value, which means bitcoin, is probably still in control of the overall cryptocurrency market. The only one that has had a reasonable run in terms of the big cryptocurrencies is uh eth. So in terms of ada its having a struggling time, we can go. Look at solana looks like the support he wants to break down, which weve been looking at 30. Bucks to 34, the next level is about 26, should it break down, and then we look towards the previous lows at about 19 and 12.
So if it is to get back to 12 bucks that gives us a 95 drop and starts to set us up in that final capitulation zone that we have come to expect from the altcoin markets, it has been extremely weak on the downtrend. The swings are just not getting much greater, they are starting to roll over. So if the lows are taken out personally, i would be expecting a further downside to at least come back to those previous support levels, and this occurs on all altcoins. Just insert the old coin name here going to sold btc, it will potentially line up with previous levels of support back down at 0.0007 of a btc, and we go all the way back down to 43, 000 satoshis or 42 000. Then that lines up with about a 90 drop of the altcoin against the bt btc value as a final capitulation low, now im basing this off eighth as eth went on a 89.6 call. It a 90 90 drop against its bitcoin value during the bear market of 2017 to 2019. So if were expecting salon to be another one of those major massive cryptocurrencies that is going to overtake eth, then im really focusing a lot on the btc chart again to give me that final capitulation low, knowing that this is typically where those markets end up in Price against their btc value, and in time we know that there is a lot of time involved in order for the cryptos to re, accumulate and start to show signs of strength by breaking out to the upside.
This is something that weve talked a heap about with our members to keep people safe from losing money in the markets thats. Basically, the biggest thing here is to not lose money in the markets when youre starting out, then you start to roll over the course of becoming a full time. Investor and trader. Is you start to get a little bit profitable and then you become more and more profitable its basically, you dont just start in the market and make a ton of profit and keep it forever its a process of learning losing a little bit, not losing so much Because you start to see the signals and then start to make some profits. So if you want to get involved at least start with the free invested newsletter link is in the top of the video description. Newsletter is coming out next week: bitcoin cryptocurrencies real estate stock markets, everything you need to know in there and if you want to join us on monday mornings, check out tia premium and ti tia lite. This one has a ton of courses. This one is for your weekly group calls guys. Thank you very much. I hope you have been safe in this market period. Im going to do a follow up, video on the cycle, buy zones for the macro picture on bitcoin. So if you come back to this video looking at the final capitulation, then we can piece this together with the bitcoin buy zones to keep us safe from dcaa into cryptos too early when the cycle is just not ready.
Yet i mean this has been going on for over six months publicly on the channel, so stay in touch subscribe, like links are in the video description, see you guys at the next.