A couple of months ago, I shared my thoughts on where I believe the bear Market would end now. Bitcoin has recently entered that window of the end of the bear market. So in this video here were going to be revisiting the question of the cycle. Low is it in? Do we have more downside to come Im also going to share a few charts that we need to be watching that are going to be giving us our triggers and also some insights as to whether the market is falling on bearish volume or a bearish decline, or In fact, if it is a bullish decline, when the market does fall, which does sound like an oxymoron, but I will tell you more about that. Welcome back to the channel, my name is Michael, where my aim is to simplify technical analysis for you and also share ideas and insights as to what could be coming up for cryptocurrency. This video is for Education, entertainment purposes. Only because Im, not a financial advisor, always do your own due diligence and your own research before making any financial decision subscribing to our free newsletter at Tia. Crypto.Com subscribe is the best way to stay connected with us and hear about any kind of offers and Deals. We do have going on as well as, of course getting your investor Insider, where we cover crypto traditional markets and also real estate Ill leave a link in the description below so make sure you pause this go and subscribe and then Ill see you back here.

In a second now we will start out with this chart here, which I did share a few weeks ago, rather a month ago, right around the time of the top. Now, what it is is the average true range and the average true range is basically my volatility. Reading in the market, this indicator averages out the size of the bars over a given number of periods, and I have mine set to 14 periods or 14 bars in this case. So the way I use it is if we are seeing declining volatility by the way of this line going down. At the same time, the price is either going sideways or down. I take that as a bullish. Reading now, just recently we have had the price pump up as this reading was showing us a bullish reading by the way of low volatility and lower prices, but we can also use it in a broader sense. To look at a few recent examples. We can see all of these periods of accumulation the market going sideways and also declining volatility, always led to price Rises. The market breaking out accumulation and inclines in prices are sometimes rather rapidly. Once again, we had some sideways Market action after the covered low on declining volatility and just happens time and time again, declining volatility, as the price does track sideways. Now, broadly speaking, Bitcoin cryptocurrency is still tracking sideways in a broadening range. We have had a pickup in this particular indicator, so we dont want to see this volatility continue to increase, because that would actually be bearish to show you what I mean by a bearish reading when we do see increases in volatility, as the price does decline, its Showing theres more fear in the market and the declines are likely to continue and weve seen that time and again since these recent tops – or rather you know last years – tops in April and also again in November, so we just dont want to see this volatility reading Continue to tick up, no matter what the price action is doing, because that would be signaling further downside to come.

So all this chart has given us a good short term indication of this recent pump that weve seen. We now want to see the volatility continue to drop off and potentially some more sideways action to give us a bullish reading but of course, thats just one thing we are looking at now. This is another chart I did share with everyone a few months ago. For my key triggers to let me know, the bull market is back on and none of them have been met yet, so it is very important to keep these lines on your screen. You can see just recently, we had our trend line from the all time. High down to the next macro, lower top on the monthly time frame, and just recently the price did KISS it exactly it broke through by a couple of bucks and then quickly dumped. So the first step, thats going to be getting me bullish, is getting back above this particular trend line, and we just havent done it yet, and the bear Market is still firmly on until we do start to break some of these key overhead levels. Now that is just the first one, and it is still a bear Market rally breaking there, but its a step in the right direction. Next up, we need to see the price break back above its recent top at 25 000, which is also a 50 level, so theres a 50 level going from high down to low, and it is also an important top in the market.

So these are all steps in the right direction to get the bull market to be back on, but we do need to see macro levels break on the oversight to get the macro bear Market into a macro, bull market. So even then, in my opinion, after breaking the trend line and 50, the bear Market is still on. We dont have big enough confirmation, because the Markets been down for 75 percent, at least to the current low and breaking a couple of short to medium term Triggers on this particular chart, isnt enough to get the macro bull market on at least not for me. In my opinion, we really want to start to see a break above some significant support Levels by the way of our 2021 Support. Also, some more tops, and its only going to be then that Im going to be more confident that the bull market is in fact back on now. Of course, the price has to move many thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars away. So this information is good to get a broad overview on the market, but how anyone tackles it for their own personal, investing and trading thats an entirely another story. These are more so maps and overviews to. Let us know what cycle the Markets in and at least for now the cycle is still in a bear Market cycle. Until we do see some of these triggers take place now. What youll also see is this orange line on the chart as well, marking the significant lower top that we did see? This is actually a monthly lower top by the Tia Gan swing indicator, thats that orange overview Ill leave a link for that indicator.

If it is of interest to you to learn more about it, but essentially, were not really going to be getting a true macro, bull market confirmation until getting all the way back above 48, 000 bucks and for me thats way too big a picture to be really Taking any action in the market because of course, theres already going to be some pretty big gains had by the time that does happen so for all accounts and purposes for practical reasons, its not really that useful, at least not in my opinion – and I really am Paying more attention to these shorter term triggers, and then we can take it week by week from there to see if we can hold above these important breakout levels, theres, always a risk of trying to get in early in any Market or any investment. Because, while the macro Trends are down theres more probability of those Trends continuing down, so we do get those signals, so it is just a matter of balancing that reward to risk and accepting any long term. Investments now could still see a negative return before the market. Does potentially bounce back up again, but the payoff from trying to get in early in the move is that we dont need to wait to see these big picture overhead levels break and obviously miss out on some of those gains, its all a balancing act, and everyone Has to decide for themselves what fits them in their risk profile.

So while weve already answered the question that the cycle low is not confirmed to be in yet, despite having some pretty good signals and some capitulation into this Dune bottom, we still want to be seeing those macro overhead levels break to. Let us know that the cycle, though, is more likely in which will flip the bearish sentiment in this bear Market into something that is a little bit more bullish. So, while theres, no confirmation of the bear Market being over Im, always watching the key levels and as you can see, the market is still resting. Bitcoin is still resting on its previous cycle, top around 20 000 bucks really just trying to hold its ground where it is now. If we do start to see a breakdown of these recent lows and with the market being in a bear market and hanging out close to these lows, just being logical, theres, obviously a high probability of those actually breaking. So, at least for me its wise to be prepared for what could be coming up if the market does break down. Now I have said there is a chance that the low could actually be in now, but if the market does break low, it probably wont go much lower. But that aside, it really doesnt matter because the market is going to do whatever it wants to do, and it will fool most of the people most of the time. So, Im always trying to have a plan for no matter what the market does and if it does break down.

This is exactly what Im looking at and, as you can see, a little yellow box on the screen as well, and that is just looking at a few of the previous tops which could act as support because, as you can already see, we do have previous tops. Currently, acting as new Bottoms in the market, it just happens time and again and its just logical place to be looking out for the next support. Should the current support break down now. That finally brings us to this chart here, which is the macro cycle all of bitcoins history. Now Ive shared this also on the channel many months ago, and I am bringing this up to date as well, because I was looking at the fact for a cycle load to be taking place within this window here now granted it is a pretty big window lasting. Quite a few months but Bitcoin has recently just entered this box, and I am still looking out for confirmation of the cycle Low. By the way I have some previous charts and also some timing aspects too. Now, from the all time, high down to the current low. Its still 220 bars and from the all time, high to the current day, its about 308 days, so looking back to previous Cycles, both Bull and Bear, there is some kind of Harmony in the market. You can see around 1100 days up once again, 1100 days up and 1100 days up and that did Mark the top of all of these previous Cycles.

So, logically speaking, we could be expecting maybe something similar in Reverse, but nothing ever plays out exactly. Could it just be too easy, then, and everyone would be cottoning on so thats part of the reason why I do believe. Perhaps we could be seeing something slightly different, this time with the chance of the low, but the probability is saying the market will probably go lower. We do have a 410 day decline than a 363 day Decline and as of right now from the top to the bottom, its only 220 days. So it would be somewhat logical to expect this bear Market to run at least something similar to the previous bear markets. Lasting around a year, or maybe a touch more and thats, where these blue lines do come into play. If The Market does continue to drop into around November or December, it would be balancing out the previous bear markets and perhaps thats whats going to be calling the end of the low in terms of time. So as we do go deeper into this cycle, we can see that we have a few key things to be looking out for by the way. I have some timing also by the way I have some overhead breakouts and price, but I do hope this does arm. You with some information and tools to be keeping track of the cycle, so you can plan and prepare and put together your own market research. There are never any guarantees in the market, but we can put together some kind of game plan based on analysis, as I hope Ive shown you here.

So the question of is the cycle low already in or not is somewhat irrelevant. It does really come down, at least for me, to do with my portfolio my risk management and reward to risk, because, at the end of the day, its where Im, buying and selling that actually matters, not the absolute tops and bottoms. We do help you with that. In the investor accelerator, where we share what were buying and selling in our portfolios, so you can go away and structure your own portfolio based on your own needs and risk profile and until then Im going to continue to track these counts and breakout levels and Ill. Also, keep you up to date on the channel, but thats a wrap on another macro overview. If you did enjoy this video as usual, you know what to do and until next time Ill catch. You then just have a quick announcement regarding the investor accelerator in the investor accelerator Jason, and I both share what weve learned in the markets when it comes to real estate, investing, crypto and also traditional markets. The membership is made up of a long course, which Jason teaches and then two short courses, one on Gan trading and also another one on Wyckoff analysis, which I teach. We also have monthly master classes for Tia premium members now, because the course does continue to grow and we continue to add more value. The price is going up, but not yet – and this is your last chance to secure a discounted price of the current membership before the price does rise.

In addition to the online school, you can also add access the Tia premium Discord where we have a bunch of channels, a q, a you can drop questions anytime and also everything we offer in Tia Lite by the way, some crypto trading for beginners, where we share Some trades also what were doing in our long term portfolios and weekly Live members calls as well. I do humbly believe there is no other membership like this on the internet. You get direct access to both Jason and I and we continue to share what weve learned over the past few decades combined and what we are doing in the market now, as the cycle does continue to unfold and what were actually doing in the market to take The maximum advantage of it both when the market is rising and also falling. So if you have been on the fence, this is the last chance before the price does go up and theres. Even a hundred dollar discount Ill leave a link in the description below the markets. Dont wait for anybody, and the best opportunities are always ahead of us.

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