XRP, BITCOIN & CRYPTO HOLDERS: THIS IS HAPPENING IN 6 HOURS! (very important)
This very important thing that is happening in about six hours from now is the fomc meeting. You can read right here: CME fed watch tool stay up to date with the latest probabilities of fomc rate moves next fomc meeting in about six hours, and we also have this on our trading economics websites, the United States fed funds rate and just basically the explanation Of what exactly is bound to change? The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3.75 or 4 percent and its November 2022 meeting. It would Mark a sixth consecutive rate hike and the fourth straight three quarter Point increase, pushing borrowing costs to a new high since 2008. Still, investors are expecting the central bank to Signal or leave the door open for a reduction in the size of its rate hikes starting as soon as September. Oh sorry, guys December and the odds are currently divided between 50 base points and another jumbo 75 basis. Points rate hike for the end of the year. Fresh economic data has been pointing to a robust and resilient economy, although some signs of a Slowdown start to emerge, namely in the housing market, while inflation holds close to 40 year highs, and then we can see a little chart of the interest rate that entry indeed Had been significantly low at 0.25 for well, I guess the whole first half of the last, I guess 12 months, and then things started to interestingly change right now being at roughly 3.
25 percent, actually exactly not roughly and again, potentially going towards four percent, which is the Forecast, which would be yet another increase of 0.75 percent, which would be very interesting as a couple of major banks have also stated if this next interest rate hike is going to be roughly 0.5 Im. Not sure I keep saying roughly, these are exact numbers, but lets say its going to be 0.5. Then the market would most likely shoot up by right, 10 or something along the lines. If its at the expected value, though at 0.75 most likely well see a downturn, then again the last. I think three meetings weve seen a massive pump and dump straight after this announcement came out, but our general guideline is below 0.75 is quite nice, 75 or plus, which is highly unlikely. I think its going to be 0.75 is most likely bearish, because this again means guys the cost of capital becomes higher, and that basically means if you want to go out there and get yourself a new housing project. You actually borrow this money is now becoming more expensive and also it diminishes for that exact reason. The growth and, again you want GDP to grow, always because thats, how you your literal economy, grows and thats how you grow as a country, so to speak, so the higher the interest rate, the higher the cost of capital, the less Innovation which basically gets things in A negative spiral because well they do this to combat inflation, but in theory the inflation is making it so that more things get produced, theres a higher price where people get paid more and they try to kind of go into a circle.
However, eventually things become unaffordable for people and you keep getting crazier in crazier situations which well can partially be combative with the higher interest rate, because this is just said, people will go and save more, so theyll extend their consumption into the future. Theres. Also a negative caveat to it, though, which is more and more people cannot afford their mortgages and the longer of a period you have where things do well, the more of a risk you have when you start adjusting the interest rate, because people have forgotten that there Were crashes before and the crashes can happen again if you go overzealous into something and what we see now is not the same as 2008 2009, where people just gave bad credit everywhere left right. You know to these high risk people. No. These were people that calculated their risk this time around for their homes. They did the math properly, but if this interest rate decreases so significantly to fourfold potentially of what they were expecting to have, and because of all the inflation that came and most likely still be coming until the interest rate kind of matches that out its kind of Hard to re mortgage because in that sense also the interest rate is so high, its just a really messed up situation for a lot of people and then in Europe, for example, together with the fact that the electricity and gas prices are so crazy insane right now, Yeah people are, generally speaking, just in a lot of trouble, but let us quickly take a look at the Bitcoin prices of this moment, so we indeed had ourselves a juicy little breakout.
We actually covered this in a a couple of different videos. We had ourselves are juicy to break up with some confirmation had a little pullback, and then we were saying well. This is the critical Pivot Point: either were going to massively crash below our 18.4 thousand dollar support area or were gon na bounce really really hard from here and continue on with that massive bull run all the way towards targets like 23.5 thousand dollars. Twenty five thousand dollars just basically good things coming again, as we said before, if we do break down, itll most likely be a very harsh breakdown, especially if we do end up going below 18.4. If you not get picked up right, there were honestly expecting 14 000 to not be that crazy of an area and right now things are looking to be breaking out again, heres a little symmetrical trying that were all looking at and were hoping. That, of course, is going to break out towards the upside, but its just interesting to watch right now and for anybody thats looking at xrp, it just had another little reaches the trend line. However, it pulled back right now sitting at its little. I guess major support level over the last couple of weeks right, weve been trading within this range here with this significant bottom here since the middle of September and were still ranging its going to be interesting to see if, if Bitcoin does break out right here, if Xcp will also break out towards the upside, and I guess, potentially in five or six hours, with this interest rate being a very low number with, for example, 0.
50. That could be happening, but you can see right here the eventual interest rate to 3.5 3.75 percent. You know from 3.25 now has a very low probability, one in eight and to go to a 375 to 4. Has the majority of the probability about seven out of eight also to be a little bit more specific about the insights right now, we are again bouncing off of this same specific little support area, and it could indeed be that were just going to. Basically, you know we had ourselves a breakup with confirmation had a little pullback had another attempt basically found that same similar top before trying to break down once more retest. You know build some proper support and then actually bounce back up Im just saying here that in this area, specifically because weve stalled for such a significant amount of time, it is not too crazy that some big bears are basically tempting people and are going to crash Things to create a little bull trap again over on the major time frames we have broken out. We did get ourselves That official breakout candle. This is, for example, the monthly time frame, but we still have yet to get ourselves some proper, confirming kennel afterwards. If again, this month ends green, which we hope, because historically speaking October is usually bullish, we saw that we had bad things were good um, its not updated, just quite yet for the whole month of October, but November is kind of iffy withy.
You know six out of nine periods before so next. Six out of the nine years before were very bullish. The percentage is looking High because it includes the 2013 number as well. If we exclude that, though, the number generally speaking in November is quite bullish, but not that crazy, because we also had a year of minus 40 percent back in 2018.. If it does end up closing bullish, though, that would be a major major sign of a massive reversal, specifically if we do end up closing above twenty four thousand dollars, which is the 200 weekly moving average. That would be extremely juicy, but right now are watching for the short term. Is this United States fed funds rate the interest rate over in the US and again guys Im gon na all remind you if youve not checked it out yet make sure you check out bid get its a crypto exchange that I personally use and right now, if You sign up, you get ten dollars for absolutely free, simple as that, and if you make a deposit of 50 or more, you get twenty dollars for absolutely free in xrp, and you can do with this as you please. But more importantly, you have upwards of eight thousand dollars worth of deposit bonuses and how that works is the more you deposit, the more in bonuses that you get and these bonuses is can be used to trade with. So the easiest thing in the world to do is turn a bonus into just withdrawable cash.
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