Rounded Top Signals Danger For Crypto; Bitcoin Disagrees!
My name is Michael hope. You had a fantastic weekend enjoyed plenty of time away from the screens and youre ready for the new week now this week, promises to deliver, as we have a lot of stuff going on in the fundamental space which we know can give us a bit of volatility. So, Im going to be covering that in this video, as well as some macro signals and a bit of a trading tip as well looking at some examples in Bitcoin on the long term, time frame and also short term time frame were looking at some short term. Charts of Bitcoin on The Daily 4 hour and well even throw in a few alts as well before we get stuck into it. Of course, Im, not a financial advisor always do your own due diligence and research before making any financial decision and past results are not indicative of future performance. Now Id also encourage you to jump over to Tia crypto And subscribe to our free news about the next Edition comes out this week. Youll have to be subscribed in time for that to hit your inbox youd have to jump over to the website. Uh put forward. Slash subscribe or hit this free report button and drop your details in for that. Next addition to hit your inbox before we get stuck into the charts, looking at some analysis, some current analysis, as well as the trading tip well start out with forexfactory.
com calendar. Now you can set this to whatever time zone youre in and what I pay attention to here are the USD announcements and the high impact announcements. So we can quickly tell what they are by looking at the currency code here, USD and also the red box. Being the high impact announcements now what we have coming up this week, which is why it promises to be a good week, we have a little bit of consumer confidence, but more so what everyone has their eyes on is the federal funds rate now theyre pricing in A 25 basis point hike. You can see that by the right hand, side of the screen they have the previous and also the forecast, and if we scroll down, you can see theyre projecting a 25 basis, point hike. So what that means is, if it comes in as expected, the Markets – probably not going to be doing too much by the way of you, know, surprise announcements, whereas if it comes on in under or over the Markets, probably going to be reacting quite significantly, but even So just mark this date and time up on your chart, or at least in your diary rather and expect some more volatility leading into and out of these announcements as a lot of people do sit on their hands waiting to see what happens definitively before making their Decisions which does increase activity so do Mark that up and also towards the end of the week.
We also have some unemployment stuff coming out, which can shake the market up a little bit. A lot of fundamental Traders and analysts look for this information to give them a bit more Direction on the state of the economy. But, of course you guys know that we focus on the charts here, and we use this purely just for a bit of a timing aspect now looking at Bitcoin, this is the daily chart. Here we can see. All of the trends have remained up now, Im – probably going to be jumping around a little bit in this video. So stick with me, but we can see this is the daily chart we can see. The trends are still up on our one day. One bar our one day, two bar and also our one week, so theres no point fighting the Trends on these time frames here. Shorter term is another story. We can see the trends change on the shorter term, but the higher time frames remain intact, which is why I do love the Tia against me indicator Shameless plug for it theres a link for it in the description below this indicator gives us the trends. This orange overlay and a bunch more information that you can see here, but that aside, we can see how theres just been in high low after higher Low by the way of those yellow dots. So you can also see here. I like it for support and resistance.
We had this breakout this time here there were four swing, tops around the same price before the price eventually broke out and was put on a stellar run up and since then weve just been seeing High bottom After High bottom theres been no break of that downtrend. So really one of the first indications that maybe the trend is going to be reversing in a bigger way will be a Breaking of a swing bottom on this time frame here now, if we do want to be looking at more significant turning points and larger Trends Or at least the probability of a larger Trend reversal, we can turn on also the two bar swing, as well, just being a slightly higher time frame going by WD games rules. Now we can see here. The two bar swing comes in at around 22 200 bucks theres, actually a couple of swings down there. So until we see a breakdown of this level, Im not expecting any big reversal in any big way. Now, theres still a few grand to move before that level. Can break down so Im looking out for some shorter term danger signals which well get to in a moment, but looking at the daily chart here, we can see were not going to be getting a breakdown of these Trends. Here are intermediate trends until the price at this stage, breaks below those swing bottoms being the daily swings and also the two bar swing as well now something else which is popping up on the charts.
In addition to our macro resistance – and this is a four hour chart – but if you do recall from last week, were looking at some macro resistance Levels by the way – theres 23, 600 and also 24 000 bucks, and to show you where that comes from, I will Zoom up for you guys, so we can look at the higher term time frames and we can see how we have a 50 level coming from that monthly lower top in March down to the bear Market low. The current bear Market low and also an intermediate level, and we have a couple of price resistance levels showing a bit of Confluence there. So just to jump back down to the four hour chart, not the 44 minute chart. We can see how we have a slightly bit of resistance, slight, more resistance coming in potential for a double top, but our Trends are still intact on our daily two day and weekly time frames. So we just have to take this with a grain of salt until we see some bigger picture breakdowns now. What were looking at on Fridays? Video is the potential for a bigger reversal. If we had invalidation at 23 000 bucks, which never came so, the video was around here, were looking at for a bit of a retest and failure around 23 to validate a bearish signal which never came about. We had that break on top and then you can also see how the price just held above 23k signaling theres, going to be further upside pressure and weve got that pump.
That has reached about 24 000 bucks. So by having validation and invalidation levels on the chart. It helps us remain balanced in the market and not get too biased to one side or the other. So while the price was breaking down were looking for that resistance, it never came so perhaps that bearish analysis is wrong. The Markets going to be going up, which is exactly what weve seen until we have met some resistance now to the trading tip on this trading tip. Here I want to be sharing with you guys. What were looking at here is a form reading trading tip where were looking at Market action and patterns, and it also works on long term time frames and short term time frames. Now, when were looking at bottoms, they can be a little bit easier to see, at least in my opinion, because fear is often higher. So we can get the big capitulations, followed by the equally impressive Snapbacks and reversals, or at least we can very clearly see a high volume, big bars and the fear present in the market, whereas tops can be a little bit tricky to see. Now, what were looking at here is a rounding top pattern where we can just start to see the market roll over before putting in a big correction. Now, if youre from the investor accelerator from the very early days before I was on YouTube before Jason, got me on YouTube, I was sharing with the members around the times of this top here and we have a few live streams there with the members talking about The fact that the market was starting to slow down those signs of selling and weakness in the market, if youre there for that, do, leave a comment down below Id love to hear from you, but essentially one of the things I pointed out to the members was The fact that this the distance between tops was getting smaller and smaller.
So if you do look here, you can see the tops were getting closer together, especially compared to what it had done previously, thats one of the reasons behind the seller, starting to get momentum or the buyers not having as much strength which did lead to that price. Reversal in the market now weve seen it time and again, there was another signal just recently in July of last year or June, no sorry, July and August of last year, where those tops did get rather close together, it was trying to move up, but it just Wasnt getting any buying pressure, and I think I was on Jane to invest answers uh Channel back around them, along with Jason, saying, at least in my opinion, its not the time to be getting into the market, and this is one of the reasons it was right Around within a week of that top we just werent getting that buying pressure coming back in, so you can go back and review that on invest answers if you do wish. But what were looking at now is the fact that weve got some shorter term signals popping up, and we have nothing confirmed yet, but we are just starting to see on the daily chart. A few tops getting close together and perhaps we are seeing some rounding off in the market, but always remember to go back to those Trends and those breakdowns like we previously looked at for that kind of Confirmation and validation which we dont have yet.
But it always pays to kind of be trying to stay a step ahead of the market. Looking at potential danger signals exactly like the opening quote, says from Paul Tudor Jones, which of course is a legendary Billion Dollar Trader. So go back and read that quote. If you havent already, but essentially, we have to be looking out for danger in the market, we have to assume our positions are always wrong to see what could possibly run us over in the next days worth of trading now, of course, thats. What were looking at here, the potential of it, the buying pressure, is just really starting to slow. The distance between swing tops from the ti again swing indicator are rather close together, and we did see something similar before the FTX collapse. Now, Im not calling a massive collapse like we saw back then all Im pointing out is there is the potential for some selling pressure increasing or at least buying pressure slowing down, which is why the price really hasnt gone anywhere over the last couple of weeks. So, on the short term, time frame once again, Bitcoin on the four hour chart, we have some very clear price resistance: a macro 50 calling this top almost to a T, at least for the short term swing. But overall our Trends are still up Im. Looking for some bigger picture breakdowns and do still Mark that 23 000 bucks up on your chart, you can see a very clear area of support there.
So if we are going to be seeing a bigger correction, of course, this is going to be one of the first levels to break down. We can even look at a shorter term 50 level as well from that top down to that bottom. Coming in at about 23 126 bucks, so of course any breakdown of this short term level is going to be one of the earliest indications that perhaps theres a little bit of weakness in the market which could trigger a larger Decline. And until that comes about, if it even comes about be looking at those swing, charts and those Trends which do remain up for the time being Ill, do a bit of a rapid fire analysis on a bunch of the major altcoins for ethereum. We still have that resistance at the Double top itd been unable to put in a new high over the last couple of sessions. So we have the double top in play with January all the way back to November and were stuck between a 50 and a clear resistance level. So, overall, not too much is change. You can go back and watch my previous videos to see the analysis on ethereum. As for Solana, it is also put in a short term double Top. This is the daily time frame. You can see the pump up on Sundays session only to find resistance at those old bottoms, so a previous trading tip, Ive shared is old, bottoms can become new tops, even if it is temporarily – and you can see here – we have some old bottoms potentially coming new Tops at least it has once – and perhaps it will again, but we do know that we have our 50 level on the underside that could be triggering that larger move to the downside.
One of the earliest indications were going to be getting a breakdown with our Trend. We have a 50, we have our swing bottom. So do look at around this 23.40 as a potential breakdown area. The magic breakout was stalking last week before the breakout did come about has obviously been triggered over. The last few days were looking at around a dollar and fifteen as that first Target Zone which its hit and its now hovering right around that price. Now, of course, it doesnt seem to be a bit of selling pressure coming into the market. The prices are really just pause over the last three and a half days, but if we can get back Above This dollar and twenty this new intermediate top or short term top rather Im looking to around that dollar and thirty being that next macro resistance level. But overall weve broken out of that little consolidation Zone. This channel will stalking. Obviously the buyers took control over the last couple of days. So, if were going to be seeing a correction from here, Matic will remain one of the stronger crypto out there. If you can hold above the breakout zone of around a dollar and five cents, cadana is also finding some resistance. Just like Solana adds some old lows from 2022, so old bottoms potentially becoming new tops, at least for the short term time frame. You can see that by the white line, which lines up the lows from June rather May and also July.
The June low was a little bit higher for cardano, but we are getting some pretty important resistance in the market. So just like were looking at Bitcoin as well. We can see how theres just been higher bottom after higher bottom on The Daily time frame. So do look out for a breakdown of around 38 cents being the 50 level and also that last daily swing bottom, which will be one of the earliest indications of. Perhaps a larger correction is coming, but we just have to reassess that if and when the time comes, xrp is another one which is sound resistant at an important 50 level. Weve been looking at this at least once or twice last week and its been unable to move any higher than this 43 Cent price point now. That 50 comes from the top that we saw in September down to the bottom in January and, of course, theres. The potential for a double top as well, we have old bottoms becoming new tops, at least in the short term, if were going to be seeing a larger breakdown in xrp. What well be looking at is a breakdown below around this ‘ Cent level that you can see on the screen, this white line, being that previous resistance or more resistance and, of course, acting as some short term support. Now what you also notice with xrp is: I have the two bar swing chart on the screen. If you do have the Tia Gan swing indicator and using it for your testing and trading, you may want to check out different bar count swing charts.
So by that I mean some markets work very cleanly to a one bar chart such as cardano here putting in higher lows on the daily chart, whereas for xrp it just seems to be much cleaner and easier moves with the two bar swing chart. So to change that you can go into the settings, change this to two bar and thats. What gives you this chart here is? You can just see how the swings are slightly longer term, but they are much cleaner by the way of consecutive lower tops or consecutive higher bottoms. You know you just have to really tweak this to whatever Market you are looking at and trading, because all markets do behave a little bit differently and we can of course adjust the time frame or even the bar count for the swing chart to get a bit More of a clean, looking pattern and something easier to implement, but overall for xrp, it is still ranging around above around the ‘ level and below the 50 level of 43 cents. So until we can see any break out of that little zone Im not expecting too much to happen in xrp now its our birthday at Tia crypto.com, our second birthday and wed love for you to become a TIA premium. Member in the membership Jace – and I have weekly calls with the members as a dedicated q, a channel in the Discord there, for you guys also, we have heaps of courses, we teach again swing trading, Wyckoff volume, analysis and Ive recently added a Elliott wave course as Well, as Jasons primary Timeless skills for long term, Freedom course in there as well theres heaps there to sync your teeth into.
We cover the macro cycle. We cover short term trading, the private Discord Community for premium members to connect with and share ideas. So if you are interested make sure you jump over to Tia crypto.com drop your details in and stay tuned for your promo code theres, also a link for our free community Discord in the description below where you can have a read of some members reviews. So do check that out too thats it from me today. I hope youre staying, happy, healthy and well and until next time Ill catch.