Bitcoin Non Hopium Expectations For Price In January.
This morning, unfortunately, i had to sleep on in get my chakras reset, but it was all for good because now im feeling a lot better, a lot more revitalized and uh and and at a good time as well, because my good friend mr fibo swan hes gon Na be joining later tonight for a little bit of a podcast session talking about his sort of insights into the macro, because hes one of the hes one of the few guys that i really you know, i i really really like him in his style of analysis And we have a lot of good carryover or sorry crossover between each other, although we are looking at completely different metrics, so that is uh always valuable in my opinion and then ill do a long term analysis over the weekend. But for right now i want to focus on the most important and just and just easiest short term and medium term time frame stuff. So ultimately i want to as always let you know that you can find the crown trading application here at app.crowntrading.net and you can find just all the social links and whatnot in the link. Description below always have to see, say my piece, of course, with the instagram. Please please please, please do not be enticed by very uh suave scammers on instagram, pretending to be me uh, asking to like trade, your account or doing the old. Like give me one bitcoin, and i give you two bitcoins its probably not true look.
I havent tried it myself, so i cant you know fully endorse that, but it seems pretty sketch actually sounds like a scam, in fact anyways uh. If youre into my actual instagrams, it is in the links, description below as well and uh and every once in a while ill make a post there. I have been more, i think – well at least ive been more uh active there. As of reason, probably well do some more amas as well, because theyre kind of fun and just a good way to keep engaged, but ultimately i want to get on to the actual content of the day. So, first and foremost, lets actually start off over here. On the shorter term time frames uh, as this is kind of where all the actions going on right now and what do we have so yesterday we did say – or yesterday we did say this area right here, 43 350 or so was the bottom side of the Short term timeframe range implying that hey, if we do get an hourly closure below there, which we certainly did were looking at a move all the way back down somewhere around the 42 300 ish base. Right here, which is exactly what we got. We did say that a pullback was likely yesterday, but targets on that pullback were immediate again by this region right here, just kind of follow up on that now we have a more short term timeframe range going on right here.
To be quite frank – and it is quite simple – as well: 43 000 bucks or just below 43 000 bucks, its gon na, be the top side of it versus the same area. Uh to the downside in this blue box territory at about 42 350 lets call it any sort of a closure below there. I would be marching targets back down somewhere around 41 000 to 41 500 region, no less something like this and uh, and while i actually do think that bitcoin very likely does pull on back up above that 43 000 ish region. Until that happens, i would necessarily be saying that this is most likely to happen, but ultimately i would be looking for just continuation of the general rally here back around uh 45, maybe 46 000 bucks wouldnt be asking for too much but heres the thing and heres. What i really want to be focusing on on today to something relatively simple, because ultimately uh like i said, i want to save the fun stuff for later tonight, and i want to make this video a little more digestible. So how do i want to do this? Uh, do i want to start off over here? Do i want to start it off over here? Lets actually do it from this angle right here, so i want to once again present the case on this im going to go into an extreme amount of more detail on this uh over the weekend.
But i want to once again talk about this bottoming structure over here that we saw over the summer on the current macro low at 30 000 and this area that bitcoins working on right here as well. A lot of similarities between these price action. And, of course, whenever it comes to the to the conversation of fractals, which this would be a fractional relationship, obviously i always want to differentiate this one by essentially compiling a lot of the supporting factors that actually make it tangible and giving away to validate and invalidate A setup like this, because my big concern with fractal talk is what i saw like well, what i typically see, which is people just like copy and pasting price action onto current price action, because it basically is like hopi and or doomy and as well and realistically You know there could be some error to that, but unless you can actually validate a setup, its its a phantom as far as im concerned, its just its just its just clout on social media, okay, cool, so lets talk about this one right here, especially from the Summer, you get this first major wick down on volume thats this baby right here that kind of sets in your range lows. This is essentially the validation or invalidation from that metric, and as long as we are getting daily closures above there, while i do think that or obviously did re test it a few times, there was no, of course, official breaks, and that is a really really really Really, really good trading range to be reliant on, with the implication that hey, you know we can kind of go over the same thing over here as well, which implies two things: bitcoin, one very likely re tests, this region uh several times.
In fact, weve kind of already done this right here, obviously, but as long as theres no closures below that first wick low on the 4th of december. I do look at this relationship as still very, very relevant and likely to take some time as well. So we get this next wick down over here, even a little bit further south than that first initial drive down on the uh 20th of may, as you can see or 19th of may actually uh well same thing over here right, a little bit of a further Away to the downside, but no closures below that first initial wick low, very, very important stuff, as the training range is set. You get your highs right here at the top right around the 55 that green 55 right there same thing right here: rejection at the 55 and back down to your lows. Yet you beautiful you anyways same thing after that comes back down to lows: pops back up puts in a puts in a little bit of an anemic rally towards the 21, which would be uh pretty much where we got to yesterday. Actually, very very close. I mean im referring to the yellow, moving average right here, actually um and then kind of keeled back on over re tested. The lows, as you saw in the summer a few more times and then and then actually got a closure very, very close to that initial. Wick low right here, but that was your bear trap.
Essentially, so if this all kind of plays out to fruition, we probably expect a bit more of a grind. You know could come down more short term, especially get that short term time frame range break and then pop back up maybe put another rally. Something like this. Like bored, you ever living out of everyone come back down close somewhere right around there and then boom up. How would you validate uh the next move on this? That would be uh, of course, relevant for looking at this, as you know well somewhat similar to before. Well, that would, of course, be with a daily closure at minimum back above about 40 45 500 to 46 000 bucks thats, like the next uh intermediary sort of confirmation on something like this and then, of course, the full on confirmation, which would make me gung ho Bullish to the balls to the walls would be back above our prior range highs on that rejection of the 55 right here, just like you saw right here as well at the 41 000 level um from months prior well in this case would be 52 000 bucks Right here that obviously be very, very good. Why is that? Well, because it would confirm several things. Not only would it confirm a you know full on reversal, but it would confirm something: thats, actually, uh ive, never really seen spoken about all that much right now. So let me pull up a fresh chart for this one.
Let me see: is this yeah, this ones good right here all right! This will do the trick. Anyways uh! You will notice that and youve probably seen a lot of talk about this. Perhaps that there is a head and shoulders on the charts right now, which you know there is somebody to that. I could make some uh comments about the volume analysis on it, but ive come to realize that thats less important than the structure itself, and where would your neckline be? Your neckline would obviously be right here right around about 41 000 bucks on a daily closing basis. Right, okay, beautiful well in the event that you do have a head and shoulders formation. You actually can provide a of course measure move an implied target on it upon validation, which in this case would be pointed all the way down towards. You know: 15. 000 bucks. I think thats rather unlikely to be quite honest with you, but that would be on the board. That would be worth consideration. Obviously, you need to be aware of these sorts of things. At the same time, there is an inverse relationship to be made with this as well and whats very important about um. You know a bearish formation like this, or any formation like this uh is that you can actually apply a failure target on a failure implied target on as well, which would be confirmed by trading back and closing back above. What would be your right shoulder right here in this case that would imply this price action of which would have a measure move all the way up, just shy of about 80 000 bucks, actually so uh.
I do think that that you know i mean its relevant. Its just not like relevant right now, but if that does happen, then yeah. I do think that uh, obviously 52 000 doesnt just provide a you know: a technical breakdown region aka getting back above. There would be a reversal in this case, but it also have an implied target um yeah to new all times in this, in the sense as well just trying to think of another example where youve seen something like this um yeah. You saw right here. Actually, in fact, uh on this head and shoulders and uh in fact, right here and i believe yeah. We saw something like this: okay yeah. The measure move on this one did not play out to the downside. Yep exactly did not and then did it play out to the upside before this little starter, step right here, yeah it did so beautiful, anyways uh. I think thats enough for that, oh and also the the most obvious one would be this humongous one right here, which here at least im what were doing right now as well right and uh in same thing, so i know a lot of people over the summer. Looking at this as a head and shoulders, i was a little bit more critical that, especially after june, that was no longer like a legitimate possibility and guess what thats exact pretty much exactly where bitcoin actually put in its current all time, high just around 69 to 70 thousand bucks close enough, its close enough in that case, so quite good right there and does have a bit of a history of playing those out and we can extrapolate just a few more pieces.
Obviously, if we go back into here into the underlying mark dynamics or actually before we go into the in uh into the underlying mark dynamics, i do want to call out, of course, the fear and greed index once again, because we see a fractal within the sentiment Indicator as well as you can compare this last month and a half where weve been kind of awesome, with an extreme fearful zone, uh similar to what we saw over the summer right here, which took about two and a half months in the very fearful zone. Obviously, and uh right now, if we were to make a bit of a relationship to it, wed be kind of right about here in late june, compared to what were doing right now on this current iteration of it, which doesnt need to be exact timing, you know Its its its just has to kind of rhyme with it and yeah thats still, you know a bit relevant right here, so i thought that that was rather interesting. On top of that, i should also denote, of course, that the funny rates very similarly uh, sorry very similarly, positioned here as well. You know we do see uh, of course, the first extreme lows on that um on that major drop in may, of course, uh over the summer. That was like your bottom. Are sorry not your bottom on it, but your lowest point on it and then, of course, it kind of trended up after that, while mostly saying consistently negative or around zero well same thing over here from december 4th right, we got that first initial major spike and Then recently you know its been its its been more negative than not to be fair but more or less trending back up towards zero, which anything below 0.
01 is suggestive. That shorts have been a little bit more on the aggressive side compared to longs and heres. The thing when you match that up with open interest right here, we do see that you know open interest is actually a little bit relatively high compared to where bitcoin is at right. Now, after a move like that, so what does that imply? It implies that at minimum were probably gon na, be you know, spending a bit of time going sideways here, which i do believe would actually be healthy for uh for bitcoin now its you know the more that bitcoin goes sideways above about 40 000 bucks, the more And more that this will naturally be bullish, but you know thats gon na probably take a few weeks to maybe in a month month and a half uh. So if you see bitcoin still kind of holding that region in like another month, then id say that the probabilities of this one turning back up, uh and completing the full on reversal above those major regions, initiating targets, technically speaking to maybe 80 000 plus um, are Gon na be a lot more relevant, so load and validate this whole. Damn thing as a setup: well pretty damn simple for running off of this relationship over here daily closure below about forty one thousand bucks, its its gone and uh, and well kiss your bull mark or kick kiss your bull market hope youve uh gone for a very Long time after that, as well and youre, probably looking at big bad moves down, uh, probably somewhere around 35 – maybe even low 30s uh after that fill the old gapple that we see on uh on cme.
From way back on over in july, anyways were 11 minutes into this video. I dont want to make this more. I dont i dont want to make this any more long than it needs to be. I do want to still kind of rest my voice a little bit here, but basically you know if were going back into the shorter term timeframes, i think its, i think its rather simple or at least simplistic right here uh, you know wait what the oh yeah, That one right there uh hourly back above about 42 950 or lets just say 43 000 bucks im looking for this to be kind of like your next sort of uh, short term, medium term local low, before working uh, bitcoin back up until the you know, shallow 45S, maybe even 46, but ultimately i do think that bitcoin is uh very likely going to fail to rally somewhere right around. There comes back down to the current lows, probably scares you have. A living out of everyone probably takes a long time and boards the ever living out of everyone as well, and then all good in the hood uh. Assuming that you know lows do hold, of course, so its gon na be probably uh. You know probably be uh boring another month and thats, probably gon na be good for bitcoin um. If you happen to give a about – or if you are, you know, of course, bullish um if youre bearish well, you want continuation soon around them later, but you know, looking at momentum also is over here.
I dont think that bitcoin necessarily has the momentum to do it like at this exact moment. This is a pretty pretty uh, pretty staunch downtrend right there that hasnt really had any major reprieve. So you know just for example, daily stochastic momentum would have been will be remaining to the upside as long as above 40, 000 750 buy daily just across the upside the other day as well, and will be remaining up as long as were above 41 350. and Throughout this whole time, admittedly, whilst having like a 30 000 correction, which is insane uh, we have seen the five day and the weekly still cast momentum go for full resets here. So the five days coming all the way down uh, as is the weekly and, of course, cme is gon na be closing later today as well – and you know thats thats now even below 50 000 bucks, which will naturally be even lower when we open up into Next week, as well, so basically the more that bitcoin just kind of holds this region without actually breaking down the more and more naturally, at minimum bitcoin should get you know a decent ish, bounce and uh and potentially even the major reversal of which we outlined conditions For that should also denote here and follow up on this one uh from yesterday, uh caretaker macd showing that well, we do have – or we potentially might have a continuation of this across the upside uh, and we also do have one two three drives of histogram bullish: Divergence, you know for what its worth, but with the 20 simple kind of angling down very aggressively like that thats, not a strong signature right there to be fair, uh, but hey you know it will be remaining with upside momentum as long as bitcoins closing daily is Above 42, 150.
– all right cool. I think that is going to take care of that today. Basically, a long way of saying, youre, probably looking at something like this and then maybe that at best or that at worst just understand where those validations are. I actually think the short term time frame ranges are the easiest one right here in person speak, and i do think bitcoins going to do. You know some like this, where you come down, maybe test this once maybe twice get back above there boom, and you know one more one: more short term rally: uh try to the upside and then probably comes back down to be honest with you. So hopefully that was in some way helpful ill be signing off. Now, should probably let you know about the good old bye bit show as well. I havent been doing. I havent done that in a long time, yeah buy bits great place to go, get wrecked on. So sign up in the link description below theyre, offering you like three thousand or four thousand free dollars in order to uh sign up. But of course – and you know in a more sincere tone the reason why theyre offering. That is because they know that theyre very likely going to make more money off you than you offer them um, but you know we do obviously in exchanges that is probably one of the better ones to go to. If you uh are enticed by the super high leverage, exchanges and um, you know it will have the better liquidity um but uh but yeah.