Raoul Pal Update On Whats going On In The Crypto Market – BE VERY CAREFUL!!!!
Firstly, dont put too much money in that you cant afford to ride volatility. Ive told everybody. This for two years now expect 50 drawdowns as normal course of business and not calling it a bear market just calling it a correction so thats what we need to deal with and everybody needs to make their own decision its also time horizon. If you think it goes up, you know 20 30 x over the next five six ten, whatever your number is within a 50 drawdown, is just small noise on the chart. If youre trading for a three month time horizon it falls. Fifty percent on you well youve, got it dead wrong because your time horizon is different. I am looking to um to add more to my positions into this kind of market because i dont think anythings changed nothings changed in the network. Adoption networks slowed down a bit for the reasons we talked about before so over time. We see the institutions coming im talking to them. Every day i launched the crypto funder funds weve already put the first hundred million dollars to work. That goes straight into the markets by the hedge funds. You know that ongoing allocation of assets is is happening, so it doesnt stop. So it trades sideways for a year. Thats great tends to mean periods of suppressed volatility, leads to hyper volatility. Periods of hyper volatility tend to lead to periods of suppressed volatility. Weve basically had a sideways market where volatiles has been falling for since may thats.
How i think about it in terms of the allocation of tokens. The answer is, i dont know its complicated um. You know we had a big move in the layer, ones, avax, terra and um, and um solana usually chasing. The previous theme is a way to lose money. For the reasons you said before is youre not taking advantage of weakness. What youre trying to do is follow the momentum in a market where people are just rotating thats, usually bad. You can add some momentum trades when the whole markets in momentum, not when its rotating. So where could the rotation go thats? The question you should be asking well, some of these defy ones had a big run in 2020. Havent done anything have fallen 70 percent, maybe its defined, maybe its the interoperability, the ones that allow you to move things from one chain to another. They havent really had a big run. Maybe its those metaverse has had a run. Nfts have had a run, um layer ones have had a run, ethereums had a run, bitcoins had a run so thats. You need to be thinking, okay, what hasnt had the run yet and again i wouldnt try and look for one particular single token, because your probability of success, unless you really know it is super low, build a basket of stuff equally weighted dont. Take too much risk. Wait and see even idiot like me, could get bitcoin and ethereum right, but now its complicated right.
You need to know what youre doing, and you know i and thats why the the crypto pro, because even i would reaching out to the delphi guys all the time say what do you think of this? What do you think of that? Because its beyond anybodys ability now theyre a big team of 70 or people who just do this all day, look at different stuff. So, yes, it is more complicated or the other way of solving, for it is choosing one focus area that you become the expert on thats. The other way, theres no way youll be an expert in all of this. You might be okay with some broad asset allocations by using the kind of strategies that im talking about, but were still a bit hit or miss i mean i i dont really know so that you know im im guessing too you know. Last year i had one of the best years. Ive ever had and ethereum, which was my biggest bet, was up 450 and bitcoin was a smaller bet and i was up, and that was up 60 and a whole bunch of stuff was up. Hundreds of percent and thats not to boast about me. It was the it was about sticking with the plan that i had and i got the right timing to get in at the right time. So if you remember at the time im a macro guy, i wait for the buses to turn up.
I dont try and you know um. I dont try to find every trade im not interested in that im, not a short term guy. So i wait and wait and wait and i waited for that crypto opportunity id been saying for maybe two years three years that crypto and macro about to meet and its going to meet at the next recession. The fed are going to have to print massively, and this is the time to buy and it went all in and ive been talking about the exponential age for a extended period of time now saying listen. This is the big trade. The big equity trade here is the exponential age which all of these network adoption models of modern technology. So here we are setting up exactly the right trade which is stuff like arc or um scottish mortgage. All of these things theyre all coming for the entry point you get the entry point right at the maximum point of fear. When everybody says this is terrible thats the point you can drive extraordinary returns if youre a long term holder im, not a trader, so i dont really care about the next three months. If i buy arc, if im expecting to hold it for five to ten years, and if i get it right, itll go up 10x thats. What im thinking the opportunity may not be here now the opportunity now in markets like this is to do your homework on what you actually want to do.
So we talked about growth stocks. We talked about carbon thats been kind of chopping around a bit in the last few weeks. Weve talked about that weve talked about. Is there an opportunity in the bond market on the long side, maybe theres other trades to be done so its the time to do your homework, its the time to focus on what is my macro view? What am i looking for? What are my signals? What are the chart when should i get in choppy markets, are not the time to have high conviction similar to that i said: crypto been trading sideways because um wage growth has not kept up with inflation, so marginal um, marginal dollars to invest by retail, has been Reduced um and i think that it gets partly caught up in the growth story, but theres no correlation really between bonds and crypto, the dollar and crypto theyre. All passing correlations that come in and out. You know. Suddenly the s ps correlated for a bit then its not so i dont worry about that. I just look at the network effects over time, but if the fed increase the size of the balance sheet, then its all correlated because youre lowering the value of the denominator so thats. Why? When the fed increased the balance sheet, what you find is that everything goes up now. Does it happen when the fed decrease the balance sheet? Are they going to shrink the balance sheet and does that crash the market? If they do do it, markets will stop going up as much because of the fact that youre increasing the value of the denominator.
So it changes that, yes, we saw it last time around. There was a period of time as the fed were reducing the size of the balance sheet. No, they kept the balance sheets. Stable stocks were sideways for a while, but then even with a stable balance sheet, stocks took off again because the growth story is still underlying um. What the market wont like is raising rates. It took eight times before the market cracked last time, so it never happens. On the first couple of goes, the market has a wobble, but then it shakes it off um, so it took eight times last time and it took the balance sheet taper and then the market started rolling over. So look thats. The risk to my view is that im wrong and growth itself lets say later in 20. Back end of 2022 is stronger than i expect, and inflation persists at three and a half four percent yeah that i would be wrong and if that was the case, then were going to see a more prolonged bear market in these higher growth tech names bond yields.