Defiance ETFs' Sylvia Jablonski on what's next for crypto prices as bitcoin retreats from rally
I think what do you make of that pause? I remain completely bullish on bitcoin and i think that the short term activity is is sort of just noise, but um. It looks as though you know in terms of like what weve seen for the last six months to a year, or so is that bitcoin is correlated with with risk assets and and equity specifically, so i would say that risks, risk and – and you know, nasdaq 100 In particular, are kind of mirroring the performance of bitcoin, you get a little more volatility in the actual cryptocurrency itself, but um yeah its its investors. You know when you see the market rallying for a couple days. You sort of see investors piling back into bitcoin and you see it rising and ether and some of the other cryptocurrencies as well, and when you see the pullbacks they they seem to be hitting bitcoin too. So its super interesting, because i think that you know a couple of years ago. A lot of us thought that bitcoin was going to be this great inflation hedge and it was going to react in a similar way to gold and it was going to be sort of this. You know safe haven, inflation, trade, but i think its trading more like like a like a nasdaq 100 stock than it is like an inflation trade. So what do i make of it? I think in the short term, its going to be sideways volatility, its going to be range bound price action, but you know longer term.
I i still expect bitcoin to be in that hundred thousand camp before i expect it to go to zero, so i still think its kind of a good good time to get in and in the short term. What happens next? Because we hear a lot about that. 50, 000 level that that is, you know, a key psychological level once bitcoin punches above that thats going to bring a lot of institutional interest in and then its just to the moon from there. But what is missing from that? Do you do you agree with that? And what else is there to consider other than you know? It hits that once bitcoin punches above that thats going to bring a lot of institutional interest in and then its just to the moon from there. Do you agree with that and what else is there to consider other than you know? It hits that point, and then everyone jumps in yeah. I think like look bitcoin hit 60 000 right and then it went straight down not not long after so we went through that technical 50. 000. We went through the next technical, 55, 000 and even higher than that pulled back. So i think that again we have to think about it as we do the market. So, if i think about you know what happened with some of the broad based indices and again just using nasdaq as an example, at one point, you know we hit that 200 day, moving average and and nasdaq was very much in bear market territory 20 or more Below all time highs and and bitcoin you know mirrored that – and you know here we are – were getting off of that 200 day average on nasdaq and were getting off of our lows of of on bitcoin as well.
So i think that you know well definitely have its a tradable bottom. I think were going to have these kind of short term um rallies, but i dont think this is it. I think that the market has a little more to weather in terms of range, bound volatility, theres, a cycle of psychological aspect to uh the headwinds as well. You have russia, ukraine, you have inflation um, you know you, you have the fed raising rates and, and that just keeps investors you know kind of holding on to their cash, which is actually a huge mistake in the end, because that locks in losses um. But i think once they kind of get past, that psychological aspect and we sort of see the fundamentals of the economy and cryptocurrency and bitcoin. You know youll start to see it rally, so i dont think were going to get that straight shot just yet. I think youll get some range round volatility now between um 46, 47 and and 50 000, and i think you know kind of down the road well see that rally up to 100 000.. If you look at a list of coins by market cap, everything that comes after bitcoin and ether, how do you read any of that and lets take number three, for example: xrp? What, if anything, do the price movements there say about the state of the market? If you just think about investing right – and you think about like stability and and you know things you can hold in your portfolio for a long period of time, those things are usually companies that are large cap.
Well, capitalized, strong balance sheets. You know mass adoption, so bitcoin is like the s. P. 500, you know, ether is like nasdaq or or you know, mid cap slash large cap. So i think those are the two most popular that that people probably feel the safest to trade. And then, if you go down the road, if you go to like xrp and the different coins that people are looking at, like even dogecoin, i i think some of those things are just taking high levels of risk in in hopes that these will become. You know adopted functional cryptocurrencies. If you look at the top 10, though, i do think that theres a really good argument to make that if web 3.0 is to exist – and we know that web 3.0 is basically you know – decentralized, um internet, its pure its peer to peer everything so peer to Peer, you know: trading exchange, art um. You know digital assets, ownership. Things like that. You know. Web 3.0 is going to run on the different currencies, different cryptocurrencies. So if you look at the cryptocurrencies that are that are looking to sort of power that next level of technology, you know, i think you can make an argument for taking some risk and taking a small slice of your crypto allocation. Putting it in things like you, know, xrp and polka and poly, and some of the other players out there talking about web 3. I know we spoke a couple of months ago and in december defiance launched nftz, tell us a little bit about that.
Its an etf for i guess, metaverse related assets – tell us about it, whats in it and how its been doing these last couple of months yeah, so nft is taking the path that you know. Cryptocurrency has so its its getting um. You know slaughtered on the market. Pullbacks and its having nice rebounds on on the nice tech rebound so its behaving in line with you know, bitcoin and ethereum and whatnot, but i think nft, um, nftz and nfts themselves are much bigger actually than than metaverse um. So nfts represent digital asset ownership right, and i think that theyve created this great world, where theres a circular economy between the investor and the creator and theres. This ability for artists, whether its a musician, you know an artist of a drawing or a particular good, to use a smart contract and create this royalty that gets them paid throughout time. So i was actually reading a random article in um vanity, fair about grimes and um, and – and there was a piece in there about how she created this nft – that sold for six million, which is more than all of her records and and art combined in in Sort of like the history of her wife right and that you know that now essentially, is something that she has royalty on forever right. She probably has a smart contract that gives her that this payment for her art as its distributed in the metaverse or in you know the augmented reality gaming world sort of the futuristic stuff that she participates in, but its a great way to you know kind of Pay artists, but beyond that you know, nfts represent digital land ownership in the metaverse um theyll be a a format for exchange again talking about web 3.
0. You know gucci, for example, gucci has nfts of their bags, that are that are worth more than the actual handbag itself, because people value you know that piece of fashion on their avatar in the gaming world so um, i think theres so much use for this. I think its going to explode, you know theres this huge element of participation, decentralized, finance, again and um. You know creativity and partnership with the local artists, but if metaverse takes off, you know forget it, then i think that i think the skys the limit, because youre going to have nfts theyre going to represent tickets to concerts entries to you, know, clubs and happy hours And ted talks and um, you know land and decentral, land and um. The sky is really the limit. If metaphors takes off, how has that fund been doing these last couple of months, so the fund came out really strong. When we launched the fund. We we gathered about 10 million in assets very quickly and, and our investor is very much like the young sort of millennial, gen z, retail investor, that wants access and wants a piece of nfts um, its its starting to perform again. Now that the markets kind of you know on its tradable bottom here and youve got names like gamestop in there you know theyre launching a big nft marketplace that have kind of pushed it forward and um. You know well sort of see, but i think, as the market recovers, youll youll see some performance out of nft its a very nascent idea.