Just take a look at whats going on now, as i get into this video, if you find it useful and informative hit the like button, i really do appreciate that, if you happen to be new to the channel, then why not go ahead and subscribe tap? The bell select all notifications, and in doing so you will be kept up to date with everything that we do here at cheeky crypto. If you have not yet joined us in discord, links in the description down below its a fantastic community talking crypto 24 7.. Its completely free and i dont think youll be disappointed by what you find down there. So why not go ahead and check it out today and if youre looking for a little bit more from the crypto space, everything from bear market strategies, uh, project reviews and trading? Why not check out the patreon services as well in the description below? Okay, guys lets get into this um now im not going to go into the huge amounts of details on this um ive spoken about this a dozen times already over the course of the last few months. Um so do check out the more bitcoin videos on the channel of uh. If this is kind of thing that youre looking for, but uh, essentially im going to quickly run through a couple of things, because because ive seen uh quite a few different kind of comments. Here there – and you know everywhere – on the twitter and youtube and whatnot people who are leaving the space for like several years.

I wanted to kind of really articulate why thats a really bad idea. Okay – and i drew this up and a while back, and i actually just kind of added a couple of things just so people can be crystal clear over where we are right now and where we are likely to be in the next couple of months or so, And then what happens after that? Okay, these are very important things that i dont think a lot of people are articulating very well. So what weve got? Let me grab my pencil here right so um in 2013. We can see that we had the double peak right peak, one and peak two im not really going to talk about that. But essentially you saw crash number one, which was an 82, and you could argue that that was a bear market right 82 crash. You could argue that is a bear market considering bear markets were 86 and 84 retrospectively, and 82 percent fits right into the narrative of a bear market right, except this bear market only lasted one week right. Maybe it lasted maybe a couple of months: maximum right there right and straight down straight back up again, you got this double peak. We should also be thinking that this isnt natural, in the way that its happening right now we havent pulled back down to these levels of retracement, okay and to think of this as a prolonged bear market, like we had seen previously, i think, is a little bit Foolish, this is something different.

It is definitely different. Its got different variables. Okay, you cannot use the history with different variables that are associated with it, so understand that um its not going to be exactly the same now um. The main thing i want to talk about really is the distance that it takes or the time that it takes going from peak to bear market low, okay, and so when you go and take a look at 2013, the peak of 2013 here uh this was um. I actually pulled this up onto the daily. I think i had this down in november. Let me just shoot on back over here. Uh, yes, so were talking about like november 2013, okay and we come down – and we bottom this out right down at the bottom here on the 14th of january, at 2015, right um, so thats quite a significant period of time. You might be thinking thats well, thats, thats, quite a long time, but actually it isnt really in the grand scheme of things its about 1.1 years, uh 413 days, okay and so its an interesting kind of thing. To just remember right. The bear market was an 86 percent pullback and it only took it 413 days to get there okay, so that was 2013. now. What we also want to talk about is well. How long did it take to go from this low point right? This bear market low to the previous all time high. Well, that was 777 days.

Okay, so, if you are lets just say, one of those kind of people who was like i said were in a bear market. Ill see you in a couple of years kind of thing: um then youre going to miss the lows: instead youre going to come back when its actually already at the previous all time, high, meaning that you would have missed out on all those gains. Now, if we just did the same, if we just assumed that this is what you did back in 2015 after this low, you would have missed out on 647 in gains. Okay, so uh! Really! If we were to be brutally honest about it, what we actually want to do essentially is buy. This dip then disappear for a couple of days, a couple of years right and because, once you bought that the hodler doesnt care, the hodler can just buy this dip. That happens, you know 413 days after the peak and then they can disappear for a couple of years, but to disappear for a couple of years and then come back and not buying. This dip is an absolutely foolish statement. So ive seen a couple of uh a couple of uh guess: comments on on twitter and youtube and stuff for people saying thats. It were in a bear market, ill, see you in a few years or whatever, and it doesnt make sense its illogical, but thats just 2013 bull run 2015 bear market.

What about the 2017 high? Well, we can see up here that we had. We had peaked this up in december of 2017 uh. The bear market low came down here and 364 days later in december of 2018.. Okay. So, basically, we are one year, um its a short bear market right its a little bit shorter than what was over here. Um, but not as short as the what bear market happened back in 2013, so, okay, so cool. So basically, if i am you know a few about about here, right and im, i said, were in a bear market ill see you in a few years then youre going to be buying all the way over here, rather than buying all the way over here, which Doesnt make sense either right so again, weve got two scenarios now where we have consistency, but how long does it take to go from the bear market low to the previous all time, high well 728 days, so we can argue that, as on average theres about 750 Days between uh bear market lows and previous all time highs, which is a significant period of time. So if youre going to disappear anywhere, you have to disappear from the crypto space once youve actually bought the bottom in right once your low has come in, i mean even then, though, to be fair, you can see significant gains and you could trade this quite nicely And make pretty significant amounts of cash just by trading it, and so pretty interesting, stuff, okay, um! So what about now? Where are we well right now, weve seen, obviously the 56 crash that was from the 65 000 high down to the 28 000, though we then pushed up to the uh high points up here at 69, 000.

Okay and then we pull back down okay, so lets actually zoom in on this, then let me just bring this up here. Okay, so from the all time, high um to our current uh place, let me just grab that there we go and from the old current uh all time high to where we are today its been 182 days. Okay, now, if the bear market bottoms out in approximately 360 days, it might even be less than that, because there are here. There is a scenario here where we could argue. The data is suggesting that we are shrinking the bear markets, theyre getting shorter, not longer, and then, in which case you know we are potentially you know over halfway through and were going to reach this bottom relatively soon, but everything bounces nothing moves in straight lines, so We could be talking about an autumn finishing this kind of bear market strategy in just a few months, finding the bottom and accumulating at the bottom. Then, of course, if we wanted to, we could disappear now. Obviously i wouldnt do that uh because theres a lot of money to be made in actively moving the money around right, uh trading. In essence, if thats, how you want to look at it, but – and so for me that doesnt make a lot of sense disappearing for a few years, doesnt make a lot of sense. Now is the time you want to engage in crypto. Now is the time where you want to stick around, because this is where the money is made.

The money is not made on the way up. The money is made on the way down once you reach these low bonds right. These are the areas where maximum amount of potential is going to be achieved, and so now is not the time to disappear for a few years. Now is the time to really engage. Do research on fundamental uh on fundamentals of projects that you think are going to survive? You know multiple years in the future and basically finding the bottom and basically dollar cost averaging fantastic positions into them years, ahead of when theyre actually going to go up into those new. All time highs right so just understand that, actually, from a strategic point of view, um thats really what you want to be doing as a as a hodler as a retail investor. What you dont want to do is just disappear, disengage and um. You know come back when youre already at the previous all time, high doesnt make sense its a logical, and that is not what youd want to do from an investment perspective. Instead, what you want to do is you want to find things that are undervalued. You want to find them when theyre undervalued, you want to invest in them and undervalued, and obviously in doing so, you have to make sure that you have fundamental research that backs up your claims to say that this is an undervalued, altcoin or an undervalued project that Youre going to be investing in and theres a lot of opportunities to even get in on private sales, and things like that, as there are new projects looking to launch so essentially, now is not the time to be fearful.

Now is not the time to be worried. Now is the time to take advantage of the situation and to use it to your advantage for your future self. To thank you, okay, so i wanted to start off with video with that ive rambled on for about nine minutes now so im going to jump on down into some of the smaller stuff um because they have had a bounce. Today, everything is in the green, but guys its not going to last all too long. So um lets take a look right um, so here we can see that were in this uh third wave down theres five waves inside this okay were bouncing up here. This fourth wave has actually come on to where i was kind of thinking it was going to and right up here. So this is a bounce right. We can see this as an a b and c just like, so we can probably push it ever so slightly more, but im not expecting much and ill go through. Why, in a moment, um here, we can just see if i move that over there were coming up to uh, just short of the one to one ratio that should actually be up there at 31 400. I think weve gone as high as 31 083, so um youre not youre, not too far off the expectations there. Right now we take a look at the stochastic rsi. You can already see that its up there in the airborne its actually kind of putting back down a little bit so it might come up.

It might might just get that push up a little bit higher there and be interesting to see how that plays out um. On the four hourly, though, were almost up in the overbought area, the eight hourly almost overbought, so these things are saying theres a little bit more to be given here and but not terribly too much more. The daily is actually okay. The weeklys pulled down nicely so on this next pullback for bitcoin. I would imagine all of that should bottom out and, of course the monthly is where the monthly is. So. Why do? I think this is going to be the top? Well, one the first of all. This is a fourth wave correction. Now the fourth wave can be complex and it probably will be um based on how simple wave two was, and so we might find that this might be a zigzag or a double three or something like that to that effect, and so were going to just keep An eye on that, so it might pull back and then push back up again before coming down lower okay. This is just a corrective phase that is phase four, and once we figure out how high this thing goes well, be able to truly indicate how low we are expecting that fifth wave to go okay, um, so weve obviously got our expectations set down here about twenty Two thousand nine hundred and sixty seven, that is, where im expecting it to go now.

The reason for that, if i come up to the daily, just bring this back down its a big abc on this daily chart, taking us down to 22 967. uh. What i was personally hoping for was there will be a running flat correction here within this fourth wave, which again, as i just said, is complex correction, okay, and there still is, of course, the polish structure for a fifth wave after um. I was expecting this to be a running flat where i actually parked halfway about 32, then pumped to 42 uh, 48k, sorry, but um. Essentially now this is an expanding flat, uh more in line with the bearish scenarios that everyone keeps talking about, and but again this is all the corrective phase afterwards, i would expect an impulsive structure to come up, take bitcoin up to 78 000 or maybe a little Bit higher and as low as this goes, the higher our fifth wave has to go, and if we are to think that this entire fifth wave is a new ball run, then, in which case that might be an over extended fifth wave and that might even go Higher than my expectations at the moment, im so gon na keep these things kind of open minded at the moment, and essentially you know it might even be the same measurement as a wave one just up here as well, so im going to keep that kind of Open ended at the moment, however, i would be um interested to kind of see how this kind of plays out and what your thoughts and opinions are down in the comments below and essentially, i think this pump that were having right now is a complex fourth wave.

I will expect to pull back. I would expect another surge up and then i would expect a complete collapse down in five wave fashion and towards 22 900. It can slightly over extend and i would not expect it to drop down any lower than twenty thousand dollars. Um, obviously you can see that this is the area that lots of people have been calling out for quite some time. I think personally were going to avoid it, and i think if we were to really reflect on everything that was going on here um. I would not be too surprised if it actually lands just above this on this 382 area at 21, 900., just short or just over extending my 22 900 range, but not going into that low box area. That little gap, i think, will be avoided, and i think that its going to do that just because everyone is expecting it to go there and i think it will reverse before anyone gets the opportunity to buy 20 000 bitcoin uh in my opinion. But you know well see how it all plays out for now. This is kind of what were looking at were looking for these lows once they come in, i would be expecting an impulsive structure, something to this effect, taking us up to these new all time highs, and then this will be where the bear market will start um And thatll basically wipe out all of 2023 in my opinion, and we go into 2024, we have the bitcoin halving event and from there we can have another ball run.

So its going to be interesting to see how this plays out im not aligning to the history. Now i think um the history for bitcoin has as dynamically changed um and i dont think we can really truly utilize the history um to our advantage anymore, but um yeah well see how that plays out well see how this all finishes well, see and add this History into the mix and how that might affect things going further forward as we talk about 2024 and 2025, but guys im gon na leave the video there. If you have found this useful and informative hit the like button, i really do appreciate that, if you happen to be new to the channel, then why not go ahead and subscribe tap the bell select your notifications, and in doing so you will be kept up to Date with everything that we do here at cheeky, crypto with all that said, done out of the way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FH6EcAVKBW0