This is the chart. Thats essentially been telling us to be bearish on this channel for the past couple months, going back to that first of april, uh move over here where momentum started to pivot. To the downside – and i wanted to go back and analysis size this now that we have pretty much the the move here and, in this case again ill just briefly go over this five day, bbwp was essentially driving this analysis, the five day bbwp or bbwp in General is just a volatility measurement in a statistical format, and it is a measurement of the dispersion of returns and anytime that we have seen it down around the teens or especially lower uh. The expansion phase from that on average, has led to about a 45 move. Give or take over the next about 40 days on average and to measure that up with the last six iterations, this being our seventh uh started in again early april. I would say its very much consistent with that. Actually, we can see that um. This move has played out about 40 47 to the downside, which you know we do expect that to be on the upper end of that estimate, or of that average a lot more similar to what we saw back on over here. In of course, may of last year, actually, where we got somewhat similar activity, you know low volatility period for about a month and a half on the five day, and then big expansion phase were getting the same thing over here as well.

Obviously – and in this case the five days to class momentum was also, of course, angling to the downside. So that is why we were looking at that as likely to resolve to the downside. There was hoping before that, but as soon as this turned down and rejected the bullish controls and also rejected this uh this this, this regression trend line here, um – that was you know, heavy downside pressure, obviously so, in this case um, i do think that this move For now this particular move that were on is more or less over. I think that the low is in for now, but the low i do not believe is in for forever. At least i would not say that is likely um based off of a few other things. I do think that this can still roll over over time and and maybe give a try somewhere down around our current lows or maybe a little bit lower than that. But until then uh bitcoin does have free range kind of bounce around over these next few weeks. I imagine – and i would be looking at the five days to cast momentum as still a major pivot for the higher term timeframes, meaning that as long as bitcoin is fulfilling this condition, which, on the current period, is 36 500 uh. There is still downside pressure and bitcoin in the higher term. Temperature is more or less range bound. You know which can still imply some uh some upside movement.

But ultimately you know we played out this move basically as im not going to say, as you would expect, because i hate that or or what what is it like exactly as perturbed like you cant in my in my experience. In my opinion, you cannot per derp anything what you can do is you can look at statistics and probabilities. Nothing else, nothing more if you start to like call moves and like that, i think that thats honestly impossible to do but uh. But in this case you know again very consistent with the with the past iterations of this in the past couple years. Here again, we could do this even more but uh, but in this case just nice to see it easy to see on the same screen. So about 40 days, 47 again, you know, i do think its possible to trade a little bit lower. But ultimately, i think that bitcoins probably found the lows for now and if it is going to trade lower, it probably takes until, like you know another few weeks uh. If that anyways on that particular note, i do want to speak about why im not convinced that the low is necessarily in just yet, and what id essentially use to judge the low being in uh. Now. One of the things right here honestly is the monthly 55. uh bitcoin did get a test down around there again we can, we can hang it around there even get a few weeks, lower thats completely fine uh.

But ultimately i i you know if this area gets retested, thats completely thats, completely normal, actually um over the long period of time on a macro chart. But the next big thing that im really looking for to kind of confirm a macro low, meaning that i will not be calling any sort of macro lows in until this condition is at minimum present. It must be present for me to call a macro low or even consider a macro low end is the monthly accumulation distribution indicator right here anytime, that we have seen a slope change on this indicator in the extreme, so in the extreme greens over here or the Extreme reds over here those have been macro. Pivots ive marked all of these off with these green vertical bars, and you can match them up on the chart, and you can very quickly see that you know pretty much. All of these were macro shifts and directions um, which was rather powerful. Now, of course, as you can see right now, we are still downside angled. So as long as this has a negative slope and is even in the green zone, i would go as far to say that its unlikely, historically speaking, that we do have the low end. This can obviously correct further down over the next few months, probably into you know the later portion of summer and then give a positive slope, maybe even around this trend line. I dont know if thats actually gon na work out like that, although it has been for the past few years here and if it does something like that, that would be a really good, uh indication, and perhaps that looks something like this.

Where bitcoin, you know initially bounces up bounces around maybe re tests around those lows and does something like that. That would be uh. You know definitely a possible scenario over here, but ultimately i would go as far to say that we probably havent seen the last time. Bitcoin below 30 thousand bucks, but i do think that um, you know, bitcoin, probably you know, rallies up a little bit more from here and uh and and trades at least sideways in the mid to low 30 000 territory. Until then ill just be aware of this, because until that happens – and i know a lot of people are very interested in this right now, uh. Personally speaking, i would not call a macro low end id say that weve certainly done a lot of damage to the downside absolutely, but there is still risk of of retesting those lows and maybe even going a little bit lower than that again based off of yesterdays Video, what i kind of think is perhaps the worst case: scenarios um. You know we pretty much played out the majority of it already, but maybe a little bit lower somewhere down around about 21 000 bucks. If that anyways, in this case, i do want to get back on over to here – yes um and talk about, why do you think, were kind of likely to see a bounce right here? Uh we have seen global open interest, go for the full on reset now.

So i do think that this is very, very, very, very important were actually even lower, i believe than what we saw uh on the last major low in the low 30 000 territory yeah around february, so that was the last whats. It called um the the the the war announcement. You know they announced the war um. So you know, generally speaking, i am looking for this to probably bounce around a little bit. Uh again, you know youre gon na see a lot of people just blindly buying around 30 000 bucks anyways, because those are around the yearly lows and its a nice round psychologically even number. On top of that, we do see hourly funny rates are negative and significantly negative right here. In fact, we saw the most negative rates in a long time yesterday at negative 0.025 percent. The daily also posting some pretty negative rates for the first time in a while, comparable to what we saw in in january actually and uh and again in september of last year, some both pretty pretty nice lows. Obviously, bitcoin did trade lower over time, but some good pivots ultimately so that also does kind of you know suggest that hey probably do you see a bit of sideways and uh and up from here but uh, but i should let you know that also you can Find this data on the crown chain, application uh, the dailies are free and then the hourlys we do have under the premium.

So i should let you know that anyways also on the idea of a likely bounce within this region is the macro here. The macro fib that we were looking at on the monthly i believe it was yeah. This is a macro fri from the ultimate high to the ultimate low of our current cycle to our last cycle, and the 618 is right in alignment with that 55x metro. Right here, and actually the 618 got tested pretty much perfectly. I would say about as perfect as i can expect on a monthly which we have a low of 25 365 spot six, two on the index and the six one eight was coming in 25 to 49.08. I mean thats thats good enough, thats good enough, at least in my opinion um. So that brings up the question of where or or sorry one last thing on that on that note um. We also do see over here on the daily one of the big, specific uh conditions for looking. You know calling the end of this current move and likely looking for you know, significant bounce was the daily stochastic momentum, which we have now seen officially cross the upside. I want to see it specifically get above the critical zone now. Uh would be the next sort of thing, but this will remain with upside posturing as long as bitcoins above 26 500.. So bitcoin is going to have some pretty big ranges here, even on the short term time frames being that it is incredibly volatile right now, but ultimately um you know likely to trade side was enough from here and if we do go reference uh daily bbwp, we Hit extremes: we hit extremes and were probably gon na max out here for a little bit of time as well, so expect violent swings.

But ultimately i would be looking for you know, maybe a higher low somewhere in the upper 20s and then probably bitcoin puts in a rally into the you know. Mid 30s lets say, but in this case uh i would still say that i want to see the move in average get above the bbwp itself. At that point, i would look for the corrected, move, um and and kind of govern that by the daily stochastic momentum. Until then, what are the general areas of interest based off of this to the upside uh on a bouncy bounce? Well, its kind of the same thing as before. Actually we have, if i take this off, so you can actually see we have uh we or if i draw a fib on this from the height of the low of this current move. We have some pretty obvious areas. One of them were almost at right now. Actually about 31 250, the 382 – i would be looking for maybe short term pullbacks around there, ultimately uh but uh, but any sort of a closure above there on a daily, and i would be looking for bitcoin to pop back up and potentially fill around the gap That we had from last friday, open or yes, sorry from last friday, closure to uh to this weeks, open on cme anywhere between about thirty three five to thirty. Five five is fair game and i would be looking for uh. You know short term medium term pullbacks from there.

In fact, if bitcoin were to spike into there and then trade sideways and then roll over – and maybe you know re test around those lows or or perhaps have slightly lower lows. That would also be um. You know kind of a way forwards here as well, but i do think that we found a low here for now. Daily joule actually is giving off a god mode signal here which, by the way, the only other time that weve actually even had a god mode signal, was in november 2018 uh for for cme specifically – and this is not an immediate bottom signal here, but it is Suggesting that, were, you know, were pretty damn close. You can see in this case over here in 2018, it started to fire that off on the first major low bitcoin, has a nice big bounce and then rolls over. I think that that is possible here, maybe over a longer period of time. I dont think that this all happens like today or tomorrow or this week, but im. Never you know i. I always want to say that hey. I dont think that timing analysis is like, or at least i dont think that i can do it that well, i dont really see too many people. Do it that well to be honest with you, but uh, but fair enough um. In this case, though, you know again, this is all gon na be governed by about that uh 31 lets just call it.

31 500 close on cme specifically see a daily closure. Above there id be looking for rallies up first somewhere around this region, and then you know caution uh around there and again. I do have no reason to believe um that bitcoin puts in a bit a greater rally until we do see specifically a daily closure. Above the 618, which is about 35 550 – and that is also very close to the five day momentum pivot over here, which again will naturally come down significantly on this next closing period, which is coming in uh, not tonight, but not tomorrow, night, but the night after That, basically, the weekly closure is going to happen. So if we start to see that, then there could be a nice big rally, uh, maybe even towards the low 40 000 territory. So uh keep in mind that in you know, in bear market rallies which yes were still in the bear market uh at least as uh at minimum as long as bitcoins below 52 000. You know they are designed to be some of the most devastating and terrible things and honestly, looking at the weekly rsi, i dont think, were i dont i i do not believe that were done just yet, but ultimately uh. You know i. I do think that bitcoin has a nice uh low end for now anyways. I see that were 11 minutes and 30 seconds into this video, so i want to now go back into the short term time frames and come up with an invalidation for this.

So this invalidation would essentially suggest that uh bitcoins rally is canceled immediately and id be looking for a retest around the lows, and that would be with any sort of a full hour closure, maybe even an hourly below about 28 000. Until then, yes, low term timeframe, ranges are going to be rather wide, as bitcoin is extremely volatile right here, but weve hit extremes twice, basically, on all time frames now uh under a daily and now the daily is even maxing up as well. So i would be looking at this as a nice at least sideways range and then, if bitcoin does start to close below 20 thousand bucks very likely test somewhere around the lows yet again or probably a little bit lower than that and thats, where it really start To be looking for, you know, perhaps in my at least for me, so maybe some long term positions um until then uh, you know sideways is the name of the game and do be aware that theres gon na be some pretty violent, swings in the short term Timeframes, bitcoin will naturally have hidden bearish divergence, basically going all the way through, especially like 32.5, but but hell man, even like 36 000 bucks. So i would you know i would express caution at those regions anyways with that said. I want you, or at least hopefully that was helpful. I forgot to show my instagram my my instagram account is in the description below.

Please understand any other account other than that. One is a scammer, it is not me. I dont have any secret trading funds that you can jump into um and what else uh buy bit uh yep buy bit. They got a link in there go get wrecked there, its great um, no dont. Do that. Look cant have that on my conscience, man uh, but yeah make sure that you test your strategies. You dont need to risk any sort of financial equity in order to find a working strategy for yourself and then maybe consider it.

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