Here we can see that bitcoin is just hovering around the 30 000 level. Um so moved a lot in the last 24 hours this weekend as well. So we just need to be a bit mindful be careful of that volume is low. Volatility is a little bit lower here on the weekend for bitcoin, and also the alt coins are moving sideways, a little bit, which is not a problem, because the dust just needed to settle a little bit – and i think my view is at the moment we are Still waiting here for a decision of the market, how its going to continue. Overall, you know that my view is that we havent seen the low yet, but at any point the low could already be in because we have reached my target area that we have talked about for six months before we want to dive into the bitcoin analysis id Like to show you here, one indicator that we can find on log look into We havent talked about this particular one before weve talked about many other ones, um on look into by the way, a free website with a lot of yeah bitcoin indicators that um currently are flashing. Some signals one signal here, actually a buy signal. Historically, um is the so called reserve risk. So this basically um compares the bitcoin price to the confidence among investors. Its a little bit of a more complex um analysis, a bit of more complex calculation, and you can take a look at that in the in the look into bitcoin or on the into bitcoin website, but its not really important, to know how it is calculated.

Its more important to know that, historically, when we reached this lower band here in green, that you can see here where the reserve risks dips into this green range that historically, this has been a good time to buy and when it reached the red zone up here, It usually flagged up a cycle top now. This is one of the indicators that did not flag up a cycle top in may 21 or november. There are some other indicators that did flag one up in may last year or april, but this one didnt, but it has now entered the green zone now dont get me wrong. It doesnt mean just because its entering that green zone that tomorrow were going to 100k. Absolutely not, but it just indicates that were now in this green zone and weve been typically in that zone after each cycle job. So here we had that 2011 for a very long time here between 2015 and 2017, then here after the bull market in 2017, we dipped into it end of 2018 and then again when covet hit, and we have now started to enter it again and i cant Tell you how long were going to be in there, but it is just historically a very interesting level and you can see that based on well throughout the history here we really maxed out the entire green band. So i re we really based on this indicator. Cant really say its going to drop that low or that low um, historically weve really maxed out the entire range.

So its just something very interesting to understand that a lot of these signals, and also these indicators on look into, currently flash that we are in interesting, buy zones especially long term. This is more of a long term indicator yeah. So this is just something i wanted to share with you for everybody, whos new in the crypto market – and maybe everybody whos been in here for a long time. Also, some people just dont know about this. One reserve risk quite an interesting one, so check it out on look into um. Looking here at the bitcoin price, it is a bit of an up and down and we havent broken any critical level. Yet so really what we would need to do either drop below 28.7 k to enter the larger target area. I think then, new lows are possible. Yesterday, we dipped down to that 28.7 k level and moved up a little bit from here, but only made a lower high. So at the moment really the market a bit indecisive again not much of a surprise its weekend lower volume anyway. So we havent got back into the yellow target area, and this is by the way, the target area between 20 and 29k that um yeah weve been talking about for the last six months, which we have finally entered this week here on the 12th of may, which Is just fantastic after a long period a long journey, an adventure, i would nearly say um.

We finally reached this area and therefore i am saying that at any point now the low could be in and we dont have enough structure in the chart. Yet to say with certainty that the low is already in, we just need to have a bit of patience now, because we are in a possible turnaround. Space and the fact that we are in this possible turnaround. Space is just indicated by the fact that you can see. The market is also a bit indecisive, indecisive now, yeah weve dropped quite a lot all the way down to 25k or even 25 and a half. It depends a bit on the exchange. I think on some exchanges, we just dropped below 25k, even though 24k, even this just depends on the exchanges and is unfortunately in the crypto market, not really um, standardized yeah. So because of these different exchanges, you have slightly different prices, just slightly different prices, um sometimes, but here yeah im using the bitstamp chart – and here you can see that we are making lower highs – were making higher lows. So pretty much were entering currently a bit of a triangle. Formation usually considered a bit of a yeah a neutral pattern, but because we have come from such a strong downtrend, you could argue that its more likely to drop out of this triangle to the downside. Now that would take us if we take just a technical target here of the triangle that would take us back into the target area here, depending on when the breakout happens.

It could take us pretty much to the previous low at 25 and a half k. I think, when we drop back into the target area, there could be a good um likelihood that we actually make a lower low yeah. This could be a bit of a catastrophic event, for many altcoins could be a bit of a capitulation um. It could also that could become also a reversal pattern down here. So lets say we drop into it yeah and we did thats what we did and we might do that again and you get a big big double bottom. So that would be something that would be interesting, um. Obviously, all speculation at this stage, weve got a triangle, its a neutral pattern. As a trader investor someone whos looking at the charts, we need to wait usually anyway, until that pattern breaks. It is good that we can finally identify here such a pattern or a trendline, because until yesterday we didnt really have a structure here now we have three touch points which allows us to identify. First of all, a descending trend line – and here weve got two touch points that allows us to together with that to identify a triangle pattern, so this could be here within this waveform. This could indicate the wave 4 is already finished. This is one option, so this would be the more bearish version where we say all right. This wave four is finished. We are now going to wait for that oops.

What happened here? No, let me just we are now going to enter here. This last sell off in a way five, which would also end the higher level wave two – and let me just show you so and within this what this could then be and again, this is all speculation, because we are pretty much doing it right now. This could be a wave one, two absolutely possible. Then we could have our wave three four five, for example yeah, and that would end then that fifth wave it could come down. In my view, all the way to the 200 week moving average um. Historically, that has been a super super important support level for bitcoin the 200 week moving average around 22 k, so at the moment triangle pattern, a good addition here to the chart, because yesterday it was really hardly possible to identify any kind of structure here, um its Good to see that we have now a consolidation pattern and um yeah, we could see this break out, certainly either today, before the end of the weekly candle or um tomorrow. I believe you know when we get here into this apex. You can see it down here. The times so this chart is based on utc, 7 oclock 10 minutes in the morning here currently and based on utc and pretty much 15th yeah pretty much, i would say, maybe maybe 24 hours from now. We are really really in the apex, but normally you dont wait until you get really really into the back into the smallest um corner of the apex.

Normally it breaks out before that. So maybe today we could have a bit of a breakout here. The target to the upside should it take it to the upside. What would be the target just roughly here lets assume it happens today, could take us actually above 32.9 k here quite a relevant um resistance level, and that would also make that would allow bitcoin to make a higher higher compared to the previous one, and that way, Four here in yellow so interesting times, so a little bit of waiting quite typical that on the weekend we have a bit of a consolidation and then towards the end of the week. So i mean weve got the weekly candle and the daily candle closed. Today, in the last few weeks, we have always seen a bit of volatility around that time, so it will be really interesting to see how the weekly candle ends. My view is more likely would be here a move to the downside, but of course i dont know the the reason is that the medium term wave count would suggest there is another wave down coming, and the other reason is that this is, after a downtrend, a Consolidation indicating that this is just um yeah, a consolidation in a downtrend, a neutral pattern which would also be considered trend, continuation and from here we would then move down in one more wave, which consists again of five waves and maybe of these five waves wave one And two is already done: um lets take a look at the fibonacci levels of that wave 2, because this is also interesting just to determine how far did we actually come back in the wave 2.

A wave 2 typically comes back at least to the 50 fibonacci retracement, and there you go. We have reached actually the 61.8 perfectly yeah. This was here the candle close on the four hour and weve even broken it slightly so um. The fact that we reacted here to the 61.8 could really indicate that we are now starting to turn down again, but at the moment, just speculation. We need to wait for that to break out first, but these are sort of the important levels that we have here on the chart at the moment for bitcoin. So hopefully you like the update, if you did please hit the like button, leave a comment and subscribe and if you really like the content, then check out the channel membership and maybe even the trading course im currently publishing on the website. Morecryptoonline.