Bitcoin Caution On Price Today If This Happens
I think thats it i cant say the finished version of it. But you know it doesnt matter because finish: isnt real anyways, its plenty to talk about today, as bitcoin just played out the short term upside move that were looking for yesterday to the 21 200 region and then now the fun action begins. Yet again, on a friday and uh, of course, i want to follow up on the big setup for likely the next week to come, as it kind of gets, pushed back based upon the short term timeframe, price action. Other than that, i want to give a massive shout out to mr benjamin cowan for having me on his channel. That was amazing, really really really really really enjoyed that um. If you havent seen that video and youre interested in more long term analysis that might be relevant to you its on benjamin callans channel, if you know me, you probably already know him hes a massive channel and a really good guy as well other than that. I think its time for me to show my instagram once again, ive been doing little bitcoin updates on there on the stories feature each and every morning, and then you know sometimes later in the day as well, if necessary and then also uploading other somewhat unrelated content. As well, which you may or may not be interested in which there is also a link in the description below as well other than that lets just jump into it right now, i want to follow up on this short term timeframe price analysis.
We were looking at a short term timeframe upside move based off of the drives. I think it was four drives actually right here of bullsh divers on the four hour, and we were also seeing momentum also just turn up as well around that time. On the very very short term timeframes, but we said: hey look at 21 200 or so that is where our declining highs kind of come in right. Here you can see that bitcoin actually even poked its head a little bit above there, but thats. Okay, especially on a non closing basis, but ultimately you know if you are gon na, be looking for another lower high. This will kind of be the place to be looking for. So this is where id like to express a bit of caution as the larp lines kind of play out here. So what, essentially, are we looking at right now? Well, of course, as long as bitcoins below that last local high, which 20 21 500 um make sure you just double check on this sorry: 21, 600 on a four hour closing basis or an hourly closure above about twenty one, seven uh, seven hundred or so um. If one of those two things does happen, that would obviously reverse the trend, as we do uh at least a pair of higher lows right here, and that would be your first higher high. But until then, i do think that it is reasonable to be cautious within this region and likely the big balance i still think is probably on track for next week.
I do think thats a little more likely in this case. So what am i looking at right here? Well, first things: first funny rates, as you can see, on the hourly on the crown trading application. This has just been hilariously consistent with getting the short term directions you can see yesterday it was negative and that was pointing to an upside buys days before that, a little bit of positive a little bit of negative, there was one iteration last weekend where it didnt Work out that well but thats, one iteration out of like the last two and a half months now so uh, im gon na put this on the on the side of a little bit of short term bearishness, now short term bearishness, im not like calling for new Lows or anything like that, but you can see that bitcoin is wedging itself into what would be a redistributed pattern now. Personally speaking, i dont think that this is going to play out uh on an actual breakdown but um, but first things first lets actually go through a few of the reasons why right now its a bit more on the cautious side as far as im concerned, and Then talk about validations and then targets on top of that so uh. Not only do we have um those hot those, i wouldnt say high funny rates but positive funny rates at the top side of a short term timeframe range. We do see that four hours uh time frame is, is going to be creating hidden, bearish evidence right here, and this goes all the way up to a six hour.
I believe yep. We will certainly be having it one. Two three drives going back to the highs from 16th of july or sorry june. So id be this high right here this high right here and then potentially this high right here again and then im curious if it goes up to a 12 hour as well. So thatd be rather nasty and uh technically well, no because we dont really like have a local high right here, its not its its its a nothing, its a jesus toast but uh, but ultimately, rsi is making higher highs in what we saw. Even on the last couple highs, which was coming in from 15th of july, when bitcoin was trading at 22, 200., so yeah, you know a little bit of downside pressure here. I do think in the short term timeframes um, but i would not necessarily be calling a full on breakdown or anything like that. Lets go check out socas momentum and see what the pivot points are, because that typically does have good confluence for those breakdown points and, as you can see over here on the full wow, we are pivoted at twenty thousand four hundred ish regions thats an area to Be aware for right now, three hours gon na be showing uh downside below twenty thousand six hundred thats a little more short term uh concerning, as were very close to that region. Hourly is already down as long as were below twenty one thousand one thirty, so thats, almost the resolution point to the upside and the six hour, which ill just put a lot of weight on it will turn down below twenty thousand five hundred.
So a lot of things pivoted in that mid, 20, 000 region, sorry around 20, 500 and the 12 hour – will actually turn down below about 20 000. Even so, lets put that all into the context of the actual price action right here and let me get rid of all this for the moment, oh by the way, bbwp or rather low on the short term time frame so probably are looking at at least a Four hour move today um, but in this case right here you know what are we essentially looking at well in the very very short term timeframes where to start to confirm this as your next local high? Thus, a lower high, thus confirming all of those drives of hitting bearish traverse up to a six hour and still cast moment tomorrow, so it is turning down. Well, the obvious area, like the no questions, ask areas a little bit further away: uh 20 400. Basically, on an hourly closure, if i was going to use this on perhaps at four hour, however, i do think that that could be moved up to a closure below about twenty thousand five hundred or so, as we did see a few pivots within that region as Well, um: this is for cme by the way, but spot price section. You know pretty much in lockstep with cme at this point anyways. If and when that does happen, i would be looking for something like this of which were kind of already getting this and bitcoin very likely comes back down somewhere around the bottom side of the range ill put in a nice little blue box of peace and prosperity Down here, um and thats, the big question mark, so i do think um based off of what were going to discuss in a second here that it would be um unlikely lets say for bitcoin to break down below this region.
First, before trying for a higher term time frame balance probably next week, but hey if im wrong on that, which you know it could very well be obviously uh and you do see a closure specifically below the lows of. I think this was yeah this week, which is 19 500. It looks like on even a four hour time frame. Then, yes, we would have a. We would actually have a descending triangle, and that is one of the few patterns that i actually think works its not that i think it works like the data clearly shows that it works, and this would have an implied target, essentially a measured move all the way Down to about eighteen thousand dollars, um at which point id be looking for probably a bounce there and then come back to it after that, but heres the thing. I do think that its a little bit less likely for bitcoin to break down. You know we might get some more wick fishing to the downside over the weekends, but ultimately the big chart that i want to bring up is again this chart over here the one chart to kind of rule them all right now the mean reversion chart after a Major massive volatility expansion, so i wont go through the full explanation on this if youre, if youre interested in that check out the sundays video on long term, time frame analysis as itll go over to over that in depth and ill, probably do it again this weekend As well, but basically the signal that im now looking for based off of this, which is going to very likely uh derive the next balance is first and foremost, we are looking at extremes on daily bbwp on specifically cme.
So bbwp is a volatility indicator. It measures the dispersion of returns and basically um. What were seeing now is were seeing extremes, and typically after we see extremes from a long low and in very extreme lows, there is a play to be made similar to what we had back here is a great example in may um. That is a bit of a reversion after that full on expansion. So the full expansion is like this move here. You know thats it after that theres a bit of a consolidation as volatility contracts and ive gone ahead and tested all of the iterations over the past. Two and a half – i think, maybe even three years now – and i found that on the contraction phases which well talk about how to confirm that in a second weve seen an average reversion of about 15 spot. Two four percent dont have the course of at an average of 11 and a half days, and the stochastic momentum also has gone in the correct direction 82 of the time. So in this case right here, the signal uh is officially given once the daily bwp is below the movement uh below the moving average has a negative slope and then the moving average also has a negative slope as well. So in this case over here uh. What are we looking at were actually getting very mature within this. Now we were at or not we, but the daily bbwp was at extremes here for the longest time that uh weve actually seen – maybe maybe actually ever oh yeah, literally ever holy thats kind of crazy.
Okay, maybe okay. Some of these are comparable march, 2020, very comparable november and december 2018 very comparable. This is what we do see in our streams, which is a you know, kind of a good sign for the long term. You know i do still think that bitcoin is closer to a bottom than not uh, whether it goes down to maybe like 15 or 16 000 or or grinds out this area for the next like three to four to five months. I think its still the best case scenario, but ultimately um. We are starting to see the bbwp on the daily uh trend down a little bit here, its for the first time in the last like week. Let go of 100 percentile and its now down at 99.21. So its getting there and the moving average is also moving down as well and its actually and it is uh below the moving average as well here. But i would not say this is a full on signature set. I want to see some like actual like visible divergence between the two before i look at that anyways um, its going to completely depend upon when we actually get that which theoretically probably happens monday tuesday um. You know, assuming that the weekend plays ball uh but likely monday tuesday, which in the interim could very you know, do very well: hey god, damn it dont! Do that you? How dare you you stupid trading view uh, sorry just kidding? I am autistically raging right now, but you know maybe we get something like that and then a bit of a bounce.
You know a bit of a wick fish to the downside and then and then the fun times um for an actual bounce, but uh. It completely depends upon where that signal really starts to initiate, from which i imagine, still monday, tuesday, more reasonable, maybe even wednesday, as things have gotten kind of pushed back from what i was uh postulating earlier um, so fair enough in that anyways. In this case, you know if we were to play around with numbers and say that bitcoin is generally around the same region here. You know probably looking at at least 15, because you know this is like an extreme extreme right here. So its probably gon na be more than that to be fair, that likely puts bitcoin around the top side of the range highs, which is 23 and a half thousand bucks. So i do think that were gon na see that in the next like two to three weeks, something like that – maybe a little bit more, maybe a little bit less um, but heres. Also the thing – and i forgot to do this one actually, but i do have it over here, i believe um. Let me just double check. Okay. Yes, here we go and then what ive also done hey, i havent done it. Bastard ive done it over here. Yes, there we go um. What ive also done is ive analyzed when these daily stochastic momentum, offsetter on the on cme, gets down to this green horizontal bar here, which has only happened a few times in history really or sorry, actually, probably more than that.
Okay, its happened about one two, three, four, five, six seven times um there has been a pretty uh a pretty you know. Um uh interesting play after that as well, and the historical average bounce from those levels has been about just over 30 or just under 31. Actually better said, and then the day days until the next high has been about 14 spot, two, nine, so kind of putting these two and two together. I do think that um, you know, were probably going to see on the upper end of that average that we postulated earlier and again it completely depends upon where we take that from if it happens from the bottom side of the range or even like around 18 Uh yeah 18 000, like obviously thats not going to be as impressive as move as if it happens from here, still brings up to about range highs, though um. If we just come down to the bottom side of the range for cme and play like a 30 move, that puts bitcoin around 25 000. So i do think that were gon na see something you know, between 23 to 25, uh in july, probably mid mid end of july, something like that um. I also strongly believe that rally will fail and that rally will very likely fail, but well start well well. Well, address that once it becomes relevant as this videos already getting a little bit too long, so im going to sign it off uh with that right.
There theres one other last, show that i forgot damn it um, but it was uh. It was about buy, but actually they made, they made us an offer that i cant refuse actually um, basically, zero percent zero percent on maker fees, meaning that, if you put in a limit order um, then you dont pay any like trading fees on that uh. If you use the link in the description below um and then also ill, have a team for the ws, what the is the w im just im reading off the script right now, the world series of trading thats, it um man im not doing a good job At this im, gon na get fired, uh anyways its all good man, its all good. Well do something for that. You know understand that thats uh thats, not real trading. In my, in my opinion, um, you know at the end of the day, i always want to be at least true to myself in the sense that hey when it comes to trading which, yes, you can do on buy but or any exchange for that matter. It. The only thing that matters is simply back testing your strategy having these statistics to support that strategy, and then, if they are acceptable to you, then perhaps even applying that strategy as well, no exchange no amount of low fees or anything like that is going to make. You a good trader, but having that that set up there will and yes and then its very very nice if you have lower fees on top of that, but i think thats a good place to leave off on this video.