Bitcoin Bearish Target Hit & What To Expect Next For Price
Actually, a lot to be speaking about today, as bitcoin does hit the short term medium term timeframe, targets to the downside. But the question is: how does this kind of plan to the higher term timeframe picture and other than that yeah? I guess we had oh yeah. We had a nice uh, fun, instagram live earlier, uh with amanda jason, pizzino and ive actually been uploading. A lot of content there as well training related and also not traded latest. So may or may not be for you. But if you are interested, there is a link in the description below. Please be aware that there are many scammers on instagram as youtube as well and if its not and if youre, not getting messages which you probably wont, get messages uh from the account. That is in the link in the description below then it aint me, and i can assure you that its not gon na end well other than that. I wanted to once again point out where i wanted to point out, for the first time actually uh a new feature on the crown trading application here, which is a bit of voting and predictions which were going to be doing uh very very frequently on a daily Basis have a little bit of fun with it its 17 and a half thousand us dollars the bottom for bitcoin. Well, it might be a bottom for bitcoin, but perhaps not the uh, perhaps not the macro bottom for bitcoin im gon na vote.
No in this case and actually looks like many people agree, so who knows what that means and well be following up on these uh on an actual daily basis, so i would encourage you to check that out. I will actually even have some games around it too, which would be rather fun anyways, with that in mind, lets just uh jump into the price. Actually, right now, i want to follow up on yesterdays short term time frame, analysis of which we were looking for a move to the bottom side of the range based off of the many droughts of hidden bearish divergence, all the way up to a 12 hour. I believe that was present on this chart over here, and yes, indeed, it was, or is one of these charts. Well, all of these charts basically have the same thing 12 hour. Hidden bearish divert is going back from our highs from the 15th of june and then obviously the six hour in the full hour, also printing, at similar sort of reads right here on a rejection of the 50 line. So, in this case, what essentially does that mean is were pretty much at the bottom of the range already uh, with bitcoin on cme, just trading down below about nineteen thousand three hundred, i did say perhaps a low of about nineteen one or so before a little Bit of a short term bounce, but ultimately i am starting to look at this as likely to get a little bit more continuation.
We will follow up on how this kind of fits in the higher term timeframe picture, as that is going to be obviously postponed until the shorter term time frame reads are resolved, but in this case we are starting to see volatility expand on the 12 hour time. From a rather powerful timeframe off, you know lows essentially like the lowest of the lows literally below about one percentile, so i do believe that this move has a little bit more legs, especially with 12 hour rsi, just uh, once again, breaking back down below that exponential Likely gon na come back down somewhere right around here, so for a little bit of bullish, evidence and then initiate a short term bounce or medium term. Bounce in this case actually same thing on the four hour same thing, on the six hour, you know its all. The same look essentially so other than that. I do want to point out that we actually did have a formation here. We do have a formation here. I believe i pointed this out over the weekend or maybe end of last week when i was actually looking a little bit more immediately for that downside move looks like that got kind of pushed back to this week. Here, fair enough, you know, tommy never been my forte, nor do i think it really needs to be price action and price action level is going to be the most important thing kind of judging that, at least at least in the way that i do things.
Perhaps theres other people out there, who can do it well with timing but thats, not me anyways. In this case uh we did have a declining uh trend line going on right here, governing the lower highs, same lows, of course, as well on cme. So what does that essentially mean essentially means that ascending triangle that does have an implied target or a measured move whatever you want to call it, which is actually pointed all the way down to a low 18 000 region? Now, i am, you know, insinuating that this that this will very likely break. I think its quite likely here to be fair, as we do kind of diddle over and diddle thats uh, not the right word, not the right word in this case uh, but you know, break below the bottom side of this structure. Now thats going to be combined, not just with all those hidden bearish diverse drives, not just with the very low bbwp that we see on the 12 hour over here, entering into an expansion phase, but also 12 hours, stochastic momentum and lower term timeframes are turning down. Alongside that turn up of volatility, so volatility is going up indicating expansion on the medium and lower term time frames and momentum is going down on the medium term, uh in lower term time frames right here as well. So this is the 12 hour. The pivot is at 20, 900. six hour. Pivot is 19 500, so certainly more aggressive.
In that case, four hour is showing 19.5 as well, so coming up in a few places here, three are going to be showing 19.5. What do you know and then hourly is going to be showing 19.7 essentially, so we see a lot of things kind of in the middle of the nineteen thousand dollar region, or so you know, can bitcoin have a bit of a short term bounce off the you Know off like low nineteen thousand dollars, definitely possible, but barring any sort of a heroic reclaim by mid day back above about 19.5. You know i would be looking for this one to top on and trade a little bit lower, perhaps even as low as the measured move in this case, which would actually be well close to the low 18 000 regions. I would actually have more or less a range here between about 18, 5 and low 18, something like this as i wouldnt want to get too aggressive. The reason why i wouldnt want to get too aggressive is based off of the higher term time frame. Look that ive been looking uh that weve been looking at for a long time here now thats going to be back on this chart over here, and that is going to be due to the daily stochastic monster of which, yes, it is still downside angle and as Long as its downside, angled pressure remains to the downside and obviously that criteria was fulfilled yet again yesterday at the uh, i think it was like 20 300 level that pivot has now moved down to 20 000, even or so so as long as bitcoins below 20 Thousand bucks, yes, this is not viable, not playable, not enable share, perform relevant, but heres the thing at some point.
Yes, this very likely does uh line up for a nice corrective bounce and probably going to come from lower now, which is going to massively change the upside targets, which is why its so important to be waiting for something like this. If you are going to be looking at this as a source of edge or with any sort of edge really, but in this case what is what essentially, is the signal? The signal is anytime that we have seen daily still cast momentum on cme specifically come down to this nine read here on this green horizontal bar, the bounce from that has been. You know quite epic lets say over the over the uh three four year, history of cme, now ive gone ahead and back tested or not backed us, but analyzed all the symbol, levels of which there are seven and found that the average bounce from them was about. Just under 31 percent done over the course of just over 14 days. So again, this signal not viable right now, but the next time that it does cross the upside which potentially could be today if bitcoin, were to reclaim 20 000 bucks. I think its a little bit less likely uh, probably happens – maybe friday, maybe or early next week again, you know again getting postponed here, but depends you know where that actually does happen from if it were to happen from lets, say the low 18s. I think its rather interesting to kind of forecast what does 30 look like literally just brings bitcoin back up to the daily range highs: 23, 300 to 23 500, which would be rather interesting rather interesting.
So i actually do kind of like that area, uh to be fair, um and, of course, if it were to happen from here, then that would imply that bitcoin reclaims 20 000 bucks by end of day, and that would you know again put it obviously much higher Closer to like the mid 20s about 25 to 26 thousand bucks, i think thats, obviously less likely based off of yesterdays and this mornings analysis. So, with all of that in mind, probably does trade a little bit lower – first, probably a bit of a short term like very, very, very, very, very short term timeframe, balance uh somewhere around low 19s and then assuming that we do get continuation well. At that point, probably somewhere between eighteen, five to eighteen thousand bucks thats the real area, though, where it would express caution from getting super super bearish because of what we just spoke about right there and then also um. You know youre, probably gon na see just a lot of people get like uh panicky. I guess again, you know because bitcoins coming back down to the basically the lows and thats. Typically, when you should panic and also were gon na see, traditional markets do something relatively similar as well right here. We didnt cover this yesterday nor the day before, but we did talk about it over the weekend on the macro scale. And what do you know? You know the drive of hidden bearish divertence.
This is actually a bit of a phantom drive right there, but its always really profound to me that it actually does play out and well there. We go so in this case, probably looking for another re test around these lows: bitcoin probably comes back down somewhere, reasonably close to the lows and uh, perhaps another bounce off of that higher term timeframe. So you know again were getting into some sticky regions for even nasdaq uh, but that doesnt mean that we cant come back down and re test. Those, in fact, i think, thats rather likely, but i wouldnt be looking for, like a full on massive mega break below them, so bitcoin that probably equates to like 18 000 bucks at some point definitely possible, maybe loaded down the road. If i had to guess maybe like around the end of summer but again timing, not something that i dont uh that i can do and then of course we have the most important thing to be aware of right now, whats the most important thing to be aware Of well, that is gon na, be the semi annual close a six month time frame thats a bearish engulfing uh on nasdaq, as we enter into the last day of trading for the month and for the uh semi annual as well same thing on spy thats, great Thats really really nice and then, of course, we go over here to dixie. It is quite literally the opposite.
It is a. It is a trending breakout, as weve been looking at for like a year now, and i still stick with my targets of minimum 110, probably way more than that. I think 120 is actually quite reasonable in the next year – maybe two years, something like that, which probably also puts downside pressure on on on general markets, so in the in um in the short term. Again, you know, maybe one more drive towards current lows – probably tries for a little bit of a short term bounce kind of see it. I guess a little bit over here um, but you know there are several indications that you say to extend targets lower now, so that is kind of how im pivoting myself and essentially what im looking at for right here. I would just again express caution around 18 ish. You know give or take, because i dont think that were going to see a full on meltdown exactly from here. I think its more likely to bounce first and then meltdown later after you know with everyones uh. You know, speaking about the lows being in yet again other than that. What else do we have um? I already shielded my instagram showed the voting uh, what about buy bit? Yeah private bob its been having a good deal going on recently. This is something that im actually like quite happy to promote because i think its extremely valuable to myself – and i imagine its value to other to other people out there as well.
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