We take a look at the Bitcoin chart from an Elliot wave point of view and, first of all, we take a look at how another low could be avoided. Yeah so primary expectation that I still have yeah Ive made that very clear, I think, is as long as we are below the 23.3 K level. Primary expectation has to be this one that we still will make a lower low now how low we go. This remains to be seen. Theoretically, any low below the low of the 18th of June would be sufficient to finish off a fifth wave to the downside. Um first major line of support will be the 16.9 K level. That is the 78.6 Fibonacci level. I wouldnt be surprised if Bitcoin will reach that before it will start to move up and get to more sustainable highs. Um. This is still the primary scenario until we have um. You know price confirmation above that 23.3 K level. There is currently just there are bullish signals. Yes, we we see at least an attempt to start to move up, but I also have to say and thats what weve seen over the last couple of weeks, when we uh tracked that potential bullish, uh scenario that we had to adjust it a lot of times. Yeah um, we can still make it work, but the problem is that its getting longer and longer and harder and harder as it seems, but were gon na, follow it.

But I just need to re emphasize that my primary expectation still is that will make a lower low yeah. Maybe that doesnt always come across. I always say it, but just to make that very clear as long as we dont have price confirmation above 23.3 K, I still see that happening, especially as for many altcoins. I still see lower lows as well um. The only thing is that pretty much only for Bitcoin, ethereum and medic, I think these are the only ones, maybe even Mana. It pretty much makes sense to track a bullish scenario because for the other ones we just dont have enough bullish price information. Yet um and price confirmation to the upside, but here for for Bitcoin it would mean that we have probably already seen here the uh that wave one to the downside in red The Wave 2 to the upside here in red. Then a wave one down in yellow a wave two up in yellow it. The thing is, it is also adhered very well to the Fibonacci levels here, the 78.6 flip level – and we might now be in this third wave in yellow within that you could say. Okay, you know this is a five wave move, of course as well, so it could be that we are doing here the one the two at the moment. You know the three, the four and the five, and if this is the scenario, then I can tell you that um very soon, we should see a strong sell off.

So lets take a look here at those FIP retracements from that wave yeah and even in this wave now were already retracing nearly to the 61.8. So I wouldnt be surprised to touch the 20k thats, the 61.8 percent flip level, maybe even the 20.2 K, but in the bearish scenario we should then see a turnaround in a wave three to the downside. That should be a strong move down. Yeah a strong move down and that needs to that needs to take us below 18.6 K, and if we go below 18.6 K, which is That Swing Low here, then I think we we have the confirmation that were going to break to the downside, yeah um. It will then just get very unlikely that this is still the bullish scenario and were going to take a look at the the bullish one as well. The bullish one would basically be the case how we can avoid such another lower low okay. So this is what were currently doing here um. This is the better scenario. This would be my primary expectation and – and I just have to expect that, because we havent really broken any price levels of significance to the upside yet and those structural levels need to be taken out now. What could theoretically happen before we see such a lowest long sideways movement? I mentioned that as well. If we really are in Long crypto winter, we could see really long sideways movement long and boring sideways movement.

Where you see a lot of people are giving up. Okay, so this is getting um, certainly possible um. What we also need to keep an eye on here is generally this sort of shape, which might or which actually looks like a triangle. So this is something to keep an eye on um, because this could result in a breakout now again its Trend, continuation, a triangle you would expect that to break to the downside would be in line with this wave count. Now you could also make that an elite wave triangle count. I believe it would lead to a very similar result: okay, um, basically here bearish tenants. You could call that if we have a few more ups and downs and then the closer you get into the Apex, the more likely will be a breakout and the stronger the breakout will be as well. You normally see a move in a triangle come together with a decline in volume. Now, in my opinion, we dont see that weve pretty much had similar volume here since um or for the last couple of weeks last three weeks, so yeah Im not really sure about that yet, but that could still happen now, if were heading further into this triangle, That could become really boring for the next few days. You know so lets take a look at that, but I think we will. We should see here a decision if we are in the bullish or the bearer scenario in the next one or two days.

I would say yeah because it is really which breakout point do we choose to the downside, its very clear below 18.57 K, yeah um over here to the upside? We take a look at that in the bullish scenario here, the bullish scenario. It would be a move above the 20.4 K level in the first instance and then that wave one high at 21k pretty much. So this is the bullish scenario. How can we avoid another breakout to the downside? Now we can count this bullish, but I have to tell you I may have looked at it again today, and I mean I like to track the bullish scenario, even though its not my primary expectation, because, first of all, when it gets invalidated, we basically know that We are heading further down, which would be the primary expectation, but when we go to the upset yeah – and it is probably the more interesting one to track – I have to tell you as well. If we go to the upside, a lot of people would be happy. A lot of people would be happy, including myself, because it has been a long journey. You know that weve been following this downtrend and over the last seven months you know the the narrative has been. We have to go lower, we have to go lower, we have to go lower now we finally reached an area where we reached the Target and we can now turn around, therefore, Im not tracking in the both scenarios, basically because we have definitely the potential to move To the upside but um the bullish scenarios that I had on the chart.

As you know, I had to adjust a few times, so a few of them have been validated. You know – and this is not great, especially given here the latest overlaps as well. We can make it work from a bullish point of view, but it just needs a lot of creativity. So the Buddhist scenario would assume weve had our wave one here to the upside in purple, then an ABC down. We could argue that this year might have been the wave one, but in the end it doesnt make a great difference ABC here with a wave 2 to the downside and then um yeah, possibly the next impulse starting. But I have to tell you, even though weve seen some movement today and the market is trying to achieve something. It has just too many overlaps for me. Yeah. It looked promising here in the beginning, but it just shows a bit of weakness in the chart, and I mean if this is the Buddha scenario, we now need to really start yeah. We really need to start in a in a crazy way. Bitcoin needs to go crazy, yeah. If it doesnt do it again. This will probably also be messed up. Um. The thing is, Bitcoin would now need to go above 20.4k in this next wave up in this Red Wave 3 and would even need to break above the wave B high. So it really needs to go crazy, uh very shortly.

If it doesnt, it will probably mess up this wave count again. You know – and this is just a possible bullish wave count here – um and it looked promising um. But if you look at it really from when we started this on the 19th of June, we pretty much just moved sideways yeah. You can make it work from a bullish point of view um, but it just gets harder and harder yeah, especially if we dont finally break through these resistance levels. Here and again, if we break below 18.6 K, which is this wave too low, then it will just get very unlikely, very unlikely that this is still the bullish scenario and that this actually works out um. It would technically invalidate this scenario as it is. It would not invalidate the bullish scenario completely. Should we make it below 18.6 K. We could make it work in a way that the wave 1 was up here. Then we had an a down a basically here, some kind of a b wave to the upside and the C wave would still come lower. But Im not a friend of this scenario, especially as it would mean that we get very close to the 17.6 K level, which was the low anyway. The closer we get to that level anyway. And if we take all these structural lows out, then well just get very unlikely that this is still a Buddha scenario. It would just highlight the weakness in the chart so again until we break Above This 23.

3 K level. The expectation is further down. We are tracking the bullish scenario for everybodys benefit, hopefully um, but for now yeah next move would need to be up to the to very strongly to the upside yeah um that you know. We basically now are at this Crossroad, where we either go up very strongly in a wave three yeah and would take out this resistance box here. That would be strong confirmation that indeed we are in an uptrend, or we are here in the wave three down, which would have to be a very strong move down so honestly, either today, yeah or tomorrow, we should have the answer actually, which of these scenarios is Playing out so its an exciting time, hopefully that made it clear. Hopefully you like the update, if you did please hit the like button, leave a comment and subscribe, and if you really like the content, then um yeah check out the channel membership thanks a lot for watching bye Music.