TOTAL CHAOS!! WORST ECONOMIC CRISIS IN HISTORY IS CREATING CRITICAL VALUE ZONES
However, i can tell you this much. There is all kinds of data that, for me, is really important and informs my next few moves because were coming into a zone that i believe, is not just the zone to pay attention to, but very soon will be the zone to take action. Thats right were here on my next uh project, which will be my rooftop, which ive neglected dramatically im. Finally, back in los angeles – and i can tell you very much that ive been kind of obsessed with the way crypto is going right now and thats because were seeing so much happen that are actual signals that we could be reaching at least a pivot point. In the cycle not to go up but to at least stop the pain. So what does that mean? I feel this sort of intangible feeling which ill justify with some data in just a second, but it feels just like things felt back in 2018 right in the middle of the summer of 2018, and i remember i had told all of my family members. I had said now is the time bitcoin is going to drop just a little bit more. This was when it was about 5k. I said bitcoins going to drop just a little bit more and then its actually time to buy and buy and buy, and when it does thats going to be the the perfect entry point and, quite frankly, it feels the exact same right.
Now, where bitcoin is one more violent, move away from being the absolute who knows if its the ultimate bottom but its the time to start really getting aggressive and ive said that a few times, but the reality is: is that this all time high is something thats? Clearly, clearly not going to hold based on this very, very thin price action, at least it feels like its not going to hold and the reason that i think that is because theres so much macro headwinds happening right now. So many macro factors that lead me to believe that well see a lot more downside in the mainstream markets and then by extension, well see some crypto fud. Some crypto fear as people look to sell off, look im, going to jump in and read a few things here, because the reality is that theres, a lot going on. One of the most important things right now is that fintwit and ct are getting completely dead when they die and the actual activity on those networks starts to slow dramatically thats. When you know, big changes are starting to come and really this sort of despair of the market has started to set in theres nothing worth covering theres, no hot spicy, tweets everyones. Getting you know, everyones just wrecked, and sad and doesnt want to pay attention to. It were seeing mainstream markets start to dunk on crypto theres, nothing, there theres no value there, but remember this whole crash was created by extra uh external factors: sorry brain fart, theyre extra exogenous external factors outside of crypto.
The reason why weve had this crash – and that is a great great sign – because the reality is – is that crypto keeps developing and keeps growing each and every day. And what weve seen is that the fed, uh, fueled crash of these markets and all of the macro issues that are happening across literally every single asset class is a huge, huge indication that that crypto will resume. In my opinion, its bullish cycles and its bullish. Adoption cycle once this macro storm passes. Okay, what we need to know is that these are the bottom signals when crypto dies on social media, but its not just crypto right now we have the euro completely falling apart and almost everything besides, the dollar is falling apart, which is actually not good for a Globalized economy like the us, so we really dont want the dollar to get too strong too fast, or it wrecks everything so its just this weird thing where the dollar is the thing that theyre trying to strengthen, but by strengthening it too much too fast, although we Will control inflation? We could end up hurting the macro economy, so just understand even stanley. Druckenmiller whos, one of the more unsung sort of legendary investors, is confused as to what the short term outlook will be were seeing a lot of confusion and in a time of pure confusion, you could do a few things you could either buy in dollar cost average Into assets that you believe are bulletproof and are going to survive not just days months years, but probably decades, things like bitcoin things like gold, uh or you know for me, things like ethereum and certain very specific projects within the crypto space or you can sit on Your hands and wait, which sitting on your hands and waiting in cash for the last six months, has been the absolute play to make and it through inaction.
You are actually doing in action. So just know since weve been saying to take risk exposure off and to sit in stables um for the last few months. Its been the right play, theres not a huge play. If youve missed the easy money shorting this market, i would say youre now entering into really risky territory by trying to just aggro short everything so just know if youre just trying to short right now, because you think itll just keep dumping, you could get really annihilated By a rogue bear market rally which there could be a violent bear market rally any time and that bear market rally is not one you want to fomo into what you want to do. Is you want to take a set it and forget it type approach to investing, and you want to understand that this market cycle is looking like it could span at least six months more like a year from now until were out of it. So, whatever youre planning to allocate to the market, do it over long periods of time? That way, you spread out your risk of your entry price. You spread it out. Granted you might not catch the ultimate low, but thats, not the game were playing were playing a survival game, not a a lottery game right now. The other thing you need to understand here is that the cpi information coming in on friday has a bidirectional risk. Its very high, we dont, really know what its going to come in at, but the reality is that it.
Unless inflation comes down meaningfully, the fed cant make a pivot uh. We also want you to be aware um that uh. Where was this, there was one more piece of information. I wanted to bring your attention to. Oh, i see a lot of people calling out stock market activities, saying oh after the great depression and the huge crash before the great depression. We got this massive h2 run in the stock market, thats like hopium right when people are like. Oh, the stock market, always rallies like crazy after crashes. Well, this is nothing like those prior crashes. The way that this crash on the macro has happened so slowly and so gradually it has actually been way different than prior crashes in history and its leading to absolute wreckage for apps for everything everywhere. Many of the top investors around the world are extremely confused and preaching just a ton of caution for right now. Cash is probably the best position, its the only position until we get some more clear directions as to which assets will start to take center stage and thats, because were in an inflationary bear market and when we switch to a deflationary bear market, which is certainly a Risk, given the way that interest is climbing, like an absolute uh, free solo, uh, whatever that guy name who guy who starred in free solo, the guy scales up mount everest or whatever, with no uh, with no support with no ropes on uh.
The reality is, is that once we switch to switch to a deflationary uh bear market, certain assets and certain asset class classes might start to shine, whereas they have been subdued and everything has been drained from the market over the last few months. Now people are asking: how is this possible that every asset could lose money and lose value and thats, because theres so much credit theres, so much leverage theres so much free money floating in the system? And there is such a thing as when that credit and leverage is reduced, theres, actually less money and so theres less value in the entire system. Right when that starts flipping around which inevitably will because printing money is part of the business model of every single country. When that inevitably flips flips around thats, when you want to start positioning or at least be somewhat positioned, um but then again, youre gon na have plenty of time to position around this. The fed is not just pulling out. You know random plans out of a hat right, theyre trying to be as telegraphed as obvious as possible, and what were learning is that fighting the fed is the way to get absolutely bloodied and bludgeoned to death in your portfolio. So im going to be excited to cover these next few months, as i have this gut feeling for some reason its not that based on data, because the macro is so bad right now. But i do get the feeling that another drop down is going to start being the area where people give up truly capitulate.
I saw an interesting piece of data that there hasnt been a volatility index spike on the level of march 2020 or prior capitulation from 2008. In the stock market, and so there hasnt been as much true capitulation as is needed for there to mark a a true bottom of the stock market were seeing a slow grind, which is extremely extremely painful. But what i mean to say is that there will be a capitulation moment here, um, and it will be one that people really really want to give up on crypto, and that is the magic moment and even though its happening way lower than anybody wanted it well. Thats kind of the uh, the nature of capitulation right, thats, the nature of losing faith and losing conviction is when people truly give up its probably at a price. They never thought the asset would reach uh myself included right. So what id say now is that i cant help it, but i have a feeling of optimism on the next drop that its going to be once again, storybook entries, uh in the low teens and theyre about for bitcoin uh, is when ill start getting pretty hungry. Uh anyway, the reality of of the situation is crypto continues to be an incredibly needed, um external asset class to a very, very risky leverage filled, credit filled financial system and the use case for bitcoin and the need for decentralized wealth only continues to shine um.
Of course, ethereum 2.0, as ethereums going into the dumps im absolutely dumping down to infinity its all very interesting to me. Um and again, it shows that the the people who do take the opposing bet you dont, have to bet the farm. The people who do take the opposing bet on this side and go long crypto at the at the lows. I do believe theyll be rewarded in time, whether thats months weeks years uh, we will see but ill be here covering each and every step of the way. More importantly, ill be covering the social trends that happen, uh the economic trends and the business trends that are happening around the internet and the internet. Economies, as this bear market continues to evolve as peoples spending behaviors peoples, product usage behaviors continue to change uh. That opens up opportunities and new windows for innovation within crypto and beyond uh its its a wild time. Its an historic time, and these historic times always always are times where total rock stars and new visionaries and investing uh and product design and business are forged. And this is where old dinosaurs get cold and they get turned extinct right, so its a time of of extremes, its a time of volatility and its also a time to be extremely engaged because, as other people give up on free money, trains. This is where the truly dedicated crowd can strap in and start making crazy crazy gains, not in the short term, but in the long term the real way.
The value way. The way that you identify trends super early and stick to them, hold them for long periods of time and benefit once the world realizes the value that you identified early. I believe that were coming into an era like that once again and like i said since the beginning of this bear market, you do not need to be invested to stay engaged. Staying engaged is a time expense, not a money expense, and i sincerely hope that each and every one of you stay engaged with this content. If you enjoyed it, smash that like button as were going to be covering all things going into macro, going into product innovation, uh different verticals within gaming, different verticals uh within the crypto native ecosystem and things that i believe will be the hotbeds of both innovation, profit. Centers and of course, ultimately uh – the recovery of the crypto market uh well be doing a lot of deep dives articles threads. So keep your eyes peeled. Make sure you follow me on twitter at elio, trades and ill see you very soon on the next episode. Make sure you smash that, like button for these bear market updates uh well, keep it popping. Well, keep you up to date. I cant help but feel a little optimistic that the next drop might be the juicy one where its worth getting at least a few buys in nothing crazy, uh relative to your portfolio but ill definitely be nibbling, some bitcoin and ethereum as we get lower into the Teens on bitcoin, as always amelio trades.