Youre joining me here on your home of opium, free crypto and economic market cycle updates today were updating bitcoin and cryptos lets. Look at whats happened on those charts over the last 24 hours, weve seen that small pump, the fake out the rejection. What prices are important right now and which exact price is going to be the figure that were watching for the big bullish flip on the traditional markets that these traditional markets are the things that basically run everything else we like to think bitcoin is the center of The universe, unless it is not, but it is something that we do enjoy and we do trade here so ill, come back to these short term media term long term, im sure you have a read there, but ill just make a bit more sense of it. In a moment after weve done, our update, so bitcoin got to that level of 23 8. remember we were looking for a potential hold above that level. It did get a few bucks above just not strong enough and then yesterday it basically reversed and came all the way back down market closed about nine hours ago and now weve even broken that swing low. So this is that choppy period at the highs, what we need to see asap is a move back above 23 800 and a close at least. We need a couple of days now to get above that because weve already tempted it once and weve got a lower swing top here, so this is quite weak for bitcoin at the moment, especially with that inflation data coming out now, of course, these events are always Very volatile, so the one thing we can be sure of is were going to see some sort of market expectation up or down volatility, shakeout, breakout type event, so lets keep that number in mind.

23.8. That is not the critical number that im watching for for a massive medium macro term, bullish flip, that is, on the s p, 500. All right so at the moment, even though, were seeing some short term rejection points here for btc and, of course, ethereum at least were still trading in that range uh between the 20 and the 24 000 level. Remember 21. 700 has been a key level across the last six to seven weeks now for btc the low im watching is this swing bottom here? This is the one of the critical lows at twenty thousand. Seven hundred the fifty percent level comes out very close to twenty one thousand twenty one thousand one hundred and then, of course, the twenty one thousand seven hundred level. So basically a thousand dollar range. This is for btc to hold to continue to form a base. To then test those higher prices so thats a good time to come back to this short term bullish many traps. I think this has been one of those traps already in the short term short term. I still think btc for now, until this level is broken until 20 700, it still has the potential to move up, break 24, 7 and then come out come up and test high prices around 27. This is the top of the 13th bar so 27k and then the low here at about 28k. So while it remains in this trading range, it still has the potential to form a base to then break out and test higher prices, so thats.

What im waiting for for btc, even though it looks slightly weaker than ethereum so ethereum, something we looked at in yesterdays video right here, counting the weeks nice and simple, just to give us an idea of where this could basically top out and it hasnt been moving. Much i think investors are going to get a little bit nervous soon. You can see the 25th of july. Of that week we pumped up the week before was the bigger pump, and then the late party came in the following week: thats right here on this candle and then theyve all tried to come in in the last couple of weeks, and the market has just not Moved and so, if you can remember to your own type of trading, investing coming in late and then waiting a few days, maybe a couple of weeks, you start to basically the bed, because you want to see this thing keep pumping like. It did just a couple of weeks earlier. Everyone else has made the gains youve heard of people making gains, but its just not happening right now and, of course, this always happens at the end of moves. In particular, a lot of that noise has come out about the merge, so maybe that has just worn off. People have just lost energy in trying to promote the merge so much its the 10th of august. We still have another five to six weeks to go. We may get a couple of weeks down just light down, nothing dumpage all the way back to a thousand, but maybe we come back and test the levels of fifteen fourteen thirteen hundred dollars, nothing severe and then aim to push higher again past eighteen hundred and test The low to mid two thousand dollar range thats, going to take time, probably leading into that merge the the worst thing.

Well, the the downside we dont wan na see is the market to fall, but then only come back weak to around 1700 and then break down again thats the the bearish scenario. If we break down and then test the levels around 13 or 14, come back up and break out thats exactly what i want to see for the strength of each so keep an eye on that as well. This is basically probably stalling with all the cpi stuff. Coming out in a few hours time, the big number that im watching here s p 500. This is going to give us that macro flip one. Just one of the signals for the macro. Flip is 4200 points on the s p and we need to do it within this swing range. So im using the ti again swing indicator. You can find a link to this in the video description. I talk about it, a lot shill it a lot. It is amazing to use its so simple, so simple and like im not going to go on and on about it, it saved me a lot of money. Its made me a lot of money. Enough said there looking at where we currently sit. The top is at 41 4186 points. The reason im using this range is because this is the biggest bounce range that weve seen in the bear market for the s p 500. So to get an idea of what investors are actually doing, whats going on out there.

We need to see the move have more points, so the point move is 479 cool at 480 points. This move has to be bigger than 480 points to give us that flip that the bulls are starting to take control over the bears. Basically, investors have decided that there is more in it to the upside than there is to the downside thats why theyre pushing the price higher than 480 hasnt happened yet, but if that happens, then that really leads to the whole, the flip or basically balancing. Now the balls and the bears, so we can get to that flip. That is a key area that im watching. So even if that happens say we go to 4 200 points, because that is the 480 points from this low here, which is around that 37 20.. It can still be some time trending around these ranges of 3500 to 4200 thats, okay, weve. Just seen that we will see the flip, i i hope so, and if we see that, then we can say all right: the bull is getting ready, it hasnt run just yet, but its one signal and we dont have to be so fearful about all of the Downside negative news that continues to pump out in the media stuff like stocks, tumble as caution reigns ahead of us inflation data. We have more of the dollar edges higher as traders the weight, u.s inflation reports. You know this just keeps circulating time and time again, weve seen actually quite a few companies post, big losses.

This is just in cryptocurrencies that we are interested in, of course, theres plenty of companies that are posting losses as well, but bitcoin miners marathon to 192 million dollar net loss galaxy. Digital 554 million lost this triples from a year ago. This is uh mike novogratz, the guy that had luna tattooed all over his arm and obviously lost everything in luna or everything that was in that position in luna. They still have a little bit a remaining 1.7 billion as of june 30th, but think about this, including the company, maintain a liquidity position at 1.5 billion, including 1 billion in cash, so theyre still holding a fair bit of cash, kathy wood, also down a ton. So you know this is sort of the hopium that im sitting here for all of us here as investors. Kathy woods, etf, fell all the way back to its covert crash low if your portfolio dropped as low as the covert crash load. How much you had in your account then youre doing about the same as kathy wood, who is estimated to be in the tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars of net worth with her also company here having manage billions of dollars all right. So even the smartest people get it really really wrong, and i also like to remind myself of that, because during the bull markets we tend to give a lot of energy and attention to these guys who are managing billions of dollars.

But even they do make huge huge errors in their investing and even when they, their stocks or their companies are down 80 percent theyre still making bad decisions by, in this case, for kathy woods selling out her coin base at the lows. This is a coinbase chart here it fell 90 percent. She was selling it through these lows. This is what the articles are saying and now coinbase has pumped about a hundred percent and is now dropping away. You know, after these sharp pumps, they tend to drop again but selling a good chunk of her position of coinbase during those lows. So even the best of us do make terrible investment mistakes and live to fight another day because of their money management and they basically dont wreck their entire portfolio. So you know they have something still to work with. So in that case thats. What were looking at here for bitcoin these are the levels that im watching like a hawk to understand whether were going to flip bullish or bearish and ive got my short term ideas. Here. There are going to be many traps because there are a lot of overhead resistance levels in terms of the medium term. I think we will at this stage, while 20 700 holds, we will get that pump up and then a fallback again to test some of these levels. Thats. Why ive got here its a a bearish outlook with a pump trap and then the long term? I still think bitcoin is going to see another major bull market before 2026, which is where i think the major markets will top out around those levels.

But in the meantime this is the big number that im watching im watching 4200 on the s p 500, hoping that we break through that level today on the inflation figures. So hopefully they come out as expected, or slightly better. That should give that market a bit. A pump up that should then pump the s and p just enough, even if it pulls back later, thats fine. I just want to see it get to 4 200 points and thats going to give me a more medium to longer term signal about the bulls taking control. Even if the market does fall back down again, thats okay tables are turning and thats all i want to look for when it comes to my investing so a few things. We need to keep an eye on today. S p 500, 4 200 points. Btc must maintain that trading bottom, twenty thousand, seven hundred to twenty one thousand, seven hundred and hopefully pump above twenty four thousand seven and as for eth, i think we might get a little bit of a turning over soon. But if we dont, we get the close and the break above eighteen hundred dollars so thats.

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